2024 Cognizant Classic - PGA National - Champion Course Preview and Breakdown

1 year ago by Joe I (TourPicks)

Link copied to clipboard!

Joe Idone's @TourPicks Exclusive Course Preview and Breakdown for the Cognizant Classic held at the Champion Course at PGA National. Course preview analysis for this week's PGA Tour event to prep for PGA DFS lineups and golf betting strategy.

Hello and welcome to my official course and tournament preview piece for the 2024 Congnizant Classic of the Palm Beaches held at PGA National Resort in West Palm Beach, FL. The goal each week is to provide a comprehensive and in-depth look at the specs of the golf course to help you best understand historical trends and stat profiles that have proven to be indicators of success at this tournament in the past. The golf course is the ever-changing variable week to week on the PGA Tour and it is pivotal to understand the specs in great detail while researching the tournament.

We have a solid amount of data and course analytics to properly make some assessments regarding advantageous player skill sets and course setup specifics. While the tournament has a new lead sponsor, we have a great understanding of exactly what this golf course is going to present us with this week and indicators of potential success in players. Let's dig into some specifics of the golf couse in an attempt to isolate players best suited for success at the Cognizant Classic.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

An Introduction to the Course

First things first, this is my favorite event on the PGA Tour schedule. It's held in my backyard and I have attended multiple days of this tournament every year for the last 10+ years. PGA National Resort is a staple in South Florida and features 5 different courses, most notably the Champion Course which has hosted this event (previously the Honda Classic). The Champion Course is a signature Jack Nicklaus design that embodies Florida golf.

An abundance of water and missed fairway penalty, stringent bunkers that protect the bailout areas, and ultra-slick Bermuda grass greens are the defining features that create such a difficult challenge for Tour pros. I had Denny McCarthy on my podcast during the offseason and asked him point blank what makes PGA National so hard, he said "the wind just swirls and makes it so difficult, you have to take on the water because the bail-out areas are really difficult to get up and down out of". He expands on much more if you want to check out the full interview on Youtube.

Players will of course have to tackle the infamous Bear Trap, which includes 2 of the 3 toughest par 3's that we see all year. Both have the entire right side of the green protected by water and you will see plenty of players going in the drink over this stretch that has proven to be one of the most difficult 3-hole stretches on the schedule. I'm excited for the first leg of the East Coast Florida swing beginning this week, and be prepared to wake up to your players being 3 over par in full-tilt Season!

One important note, Nicklaus came back in 2018 to rework and expand all the greens on the Champion Course. They now average over 7,000 sq ft on average and they have been able to access some new tricky pin locations that would not have previously existed. They have also bumped to the tees up substantially on Hole #17 to accommodate a triple-decker stadium behind the tee box which has made the hole significantly easier. While there is a ton of history for many players at this course, I would be hesitant to reach back any further than 2018 if you are seeking predictability.

Recent Winners

2023: Chris Kirk -14

2022: Sepp Straka -10

2021: Matt Jones -12

2020: Sungjae Im -6

2019: Keith Mitchell -9

2018: Justin Thomas -8

The Scorecard - The Champion Course - PGA National

NOTE: They have changed #10 to a par-5 and added roughly 20 yards to the hole. My thoughts here:

Hate the move to make the 10th hole at PGA National play as a par-5 this year.

Last year as a par-4, it played 511 yards and the average score was 4.05 on the weekend.

Adding the 20 yards does very little to make it harder and it may play as one of the easiest holes on Tour🤦‍♂️

— Joe I (@TourPicks) February 25, 2024

Course Specs

I genuinely feel like I have a better understanding for this particular course than any other on the PGA Tour. I have seen these shots, and I have hit these shots. It's really as complete a test of Ballstriking as any that we see. That said, it doesn't mean that it is necessarily predictable in nature at this event because of the enhanced volatility on a single bad swing and the impact it can have. Therefore, I don't do a ton of diving into course history this week.

One tidbit that I have always noticed is the penalty for missing right of the fairways Off The Tee. The following holes have nearly the entire right side of the fairway protected by either water or white stake OB; Holes #2, 3, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17, and 18! If you are a player who plays for their miss to that side, you could be in for a tough week. I think it's no coincidence when you look at players like Chris Kirk, Eric Cole, Sepp Straka, and Matt Jones that they are players with a pretty hefty draw bias.

The uniqueness of Florida golf is something locals pry on and Northerners detest whenever it comes to playing in this state. It's the grass. The strain of Bermuda that can withstand the heat and year around play is a thick strand of grass. If you are not familiar, it will cause fits. You have to account for the grain on nearly every shot both on and around the greens and the impact is immense. For players that live here locally or grew up in the SouthEast, this next month on the schedule will present a decent advantage.

The fairways play much wider than they may first appear. The landing areas are pretty generous should you make the correct club selection. The rough is generally not too bad, but the trouble lies in the water and densely packed trees with pine straw in certain areas. Accuracy is an absolute must this week. Here is the GCSAA sheet and numbers from last years Honda Classic for reference.

Statistical Considerations

This is a golf course that separates the strong and the weak based on mid-iron play. Like I mentioned earlier, the water comes into play nearly the entire back-9 and borders every green. The bunker bail-out regions are extremely tough, so you just have to step in and hit great shots from 125-200 yards consistently. Over two thirds of all approach shots this week will come from within that range. You don't have to go crazy low or -20 under par to win here, the recipe is just continue to pound greens in regulation and give yourself makable looks on the par 5's.

The sneaky stat this week in my opinion will just be sheer distance. This is not a Driver heavy course like we saw at Vidanta last week and players may only Driver on 7-8 holes. That said, it's hard to ignore the correlation between distance and players that have won here in the past. Players that hit it further but struggle with accuracy is something that you may think would struggle at a course like this, but we have seen these players leverage a major advantage if they are simply able to manage their Driver and step on the gas when needed.

Anytime we get to a difficult setup, I always put an increased model emphasis on short scrambling and ARG stats. Par is a very good score at PGA National on most occasions, so the ability to get yourself up and down for Par when you miss greens in regulation is paramount to success. It ranks as one of the highest correlated courses with sand save percentage annually as well. Familiarity with chipping on Bermuda Grass and playing in these relatively flat bunkers that have very little sand floor is a major plus this week.

Five of the last 6 winners have finished Top-10 in the year before winning this event which would suggest that course history could be more important than I originally thought. At the same time, every Champion from the last 10 years has also missed a cut here within three years of winning, so it clearly goes both ways. I'm going to ignore course form here for the most part, and just focus on the best course fits based on their current stats.

Approach shot distribution from 2023 at PGA National via Datagolf: