Take The Bet on Kadarius Toney - Why This Will Be His Breakout Season

Fantasy football is a game of probability so logically selecting the players with the highest probability, also known as the players who will score the most points, would be the best strategy. The other primary consideration though is the cost or investment required to draft that player, also known as their average draft position (ADP).

The true art of fantasy football is when you select a player at a lower cost that provides the same output as other players with a higher cost. This will enable you to better utilize your overall draft capital and maximize the fantasy points your team will score. Identifying these players before your draft can be league-winning, which is the premise for a breakout candidate.

Breakouts occur every year across all positions and one player that flashed in his rookie season last year was New York Giants wide receiver Kadarius Toney. He possessed a lot of excitement until the NFL draft when the Giants unexpectedly drafted Wan'Dale Robinson in Round 2. This has led to a lot of uncertainty regarding expectations for Toney, leaving fantasy managers wondering whether this will be his breakout year. To make an informed decision, some of the factors to consider are draft capital, opportunity (depth chart), health, talent, and offense.   

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Draft Capital

In a very talented draft class, Kadarius Toney was taken 20th overall in last year's NFL draft by the Giants as the fourth receiver off the board. This was ahead of some big names at the position including Rashod Bateman and Elijah Moore, both of whom currently feel more secure for fantasy.

Toney was a highly touted prospect in large part thanks to the production he had in his final year at Florida as seen below:

2020 Senior Year Statistics

Along with this production, his versatility, acceleration, and vision were some of the key attributes that likely intrigued the Giants. What was strange about this pick was that they had just signed Kenny Golladay to a huge deal and this was not a position of need for them given their receiving core.

Giants' Depth Chart

Players are constantly battling before and during the season to position themselves atop their team's depth chart, increasing their involvement and opportunity for volume. Entering last season, the Giants' wide receiver depth chart seemed very crowded, and there appeared to be little hope for Kadarius Toney to become a starter despite the high draft capital, as seen below:

2021 Giants Wide Receiver Depth Chart

1. Kenny Golladay
2. Sterling Shepard
3. Darius Slayton
4. John Ross III
5. Kadarius Toney
6. Dante Pettis

With concerns about the offense as a whole, it made sense to avoid a player that was slated to be fifth, in some cases even sixth behind Pettis, on the depth chart. As the season progressed though, it became evident that their quantity was much greater than their quality and there was in fact a real opportunity for Toney to emerge.

It only took until Week 3 before Toney was playing more than 50% of the snaps and while his first game as a starter was subpar, he put together a very nice game in Week 4, producing six receptions for 78 yards, which he followed up with a massive game in Week 5, finishing with 10 receptions for 189 yards. This was the seventh-most receiving yards in a game all season, which is unheard of for a rookie, and put Toney on the radar of many fantasy managers.

Unfortunately, this would be by far the peak of his rookie year as injury derailed the remainder of the season, limiting his availability and performance down the stretch, resulting in 39 receptions for 420 yards and zero touchdowns in 2021. An underwhelming campaign that left many wondering what could have been.

This wonder turned to concern when the Giants drafted Wan'Dale Robinson in the second round of the NFL draft, further exasperated by trade rumors Toney was featured in. Despite the rocky offseason, he remains with the team and there is still a clear opportunity to climb the depth chart this year as seen below:

2022 Giants Wide Receiver Depth Chart

1. Kenny Golladay
2. Kadarius Toney
3. Wan'Dale Robinson
4. Sterling Shepard
5. Darius Slayton

Toney has already managed to overtake Shepard and Slayton while holding off the rookie Robinson. Additionally, Kenny Golladay, the former Lions superstar, struggled immensely last season, finishing with just 37 receptions for 521 yards and no touchdowns in 14 games played. Clearing 60 yards in a game only three times without a single touchdown is very disappointing for a player they invested $72,000,000 in and who still has three years remaining on his contract.

Furthermore, Golladay continues to receive negative camp hype and has been speculated to remain on the team only because of his contract situation. Robinson has flashed in camp and looks great, but this offense will be able to support both him and Toney as long as they are the top-two targets.

Health

As mentioned above, Golladay was not the only player to struggle with health and availability, which stunted the opportunity for Toney to breakout last year. This has historically been a concern for him dating back to college, where he primarily dealt with shoulder concerns reducing his effectiveness and efficiency until he finally put together a full season in his senior year.

This has persisted into the NFL, missing time in training camp from an injury to his hamstring before enduring injuries to his ankle, quad, abdomen, and shoulder, resulting in only 10 games played, two of which he had to leave early. While described as "tough" and often still able to get on the field for game day, the impact on his performance is undeniable, given that he did not top 40 yards in a game post-injury nor did he catch a touchdown.

Toney underwent minor arthroscopic knee surgery in May and seemed to be fully recovered until this report popped up a couple of weeks ago.

The injury has however persisted throughout the preseason and is still impacting Toney's ability to make cuts and run routes as seen below.

There are still about two weeks to go until the Giants regular-season opener against the Titans on September 11th, so it is not time to panic just yet. The fact that he is back at practice, participating in individuals, and attempting to run routes are all good signs of improvement.

It certainly would be ideal for him to be at full health right now but as long as he's cleared and back to full form before the season begins, he will have every opportunity for a big year.

Talent

The high draft capital is an indication of the talent the organization and scouts believe Toney has. There were glimpses of this last year, illustrated by both his production and effectiveness as a receiver.

Pro Football Focus (PFF) provides positional grades that are recognized as a reliable measure of talent. In 2021, Toney scored an overall grade of 74.4, which would have put him as the 34th-ranked receiver had he met the minimum snap requirement. This may not equate to an elite skill set just yet but does bode well for his future as a starting wide receiver in the NFL.

Offense

While the majority of his struggles have been a result of his health, some of it can also be attributed to the offense as a whole, which genuinely struggled in 2021. The Giants finished 4-13 last season, earning them last place in the NFC East.

This was in large part because they were decimated by injuries at all of their skill positions, including starting quarterback Daniel Jones. To further illustrate this point, you will find their offensive skill position starters with games played below:

Offensive Skill Positions Games Played on 2021

Not one of their starters played more than 14 games while several of them missed a third or more of the season. This significantly impacted the talent, continuity, and production of the personnel on the field each week, limiting the fantasy output for everyone in the offense.

Their ineptitude was not for lack of trying as the Giants ranked 15th in the NFL in passing attempts last season, demonstrating a concerted effort to pass the ball despite their lackluster cast. Unfortunately, the results were very poor as seen below:

Offensive Ranks in 2021

Despite their middle-of-the-pack passing volume, they were second to last in passing yards, points per game, and red zone opportunities while finishing dead last in touchdowns per game. This definitely aligns with the zero receiving touchdowns for Golladay and Toney, along with the low totals for the rest of the offense.

While it is unlikely the Giants become a playoff team in 2022, their offense will undoubtedly improve from last year. Furthermore, the hiring of Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll will provide the Giants with a creative offensive-minded coach who has a history of success. In addition, this new coaching staff has already sung the praise of Toney this offseason.

Conclusion

Determining breakouts, especially at the wide receiver position, is very valuable for fantasy as they can be league-winning draft picks. Evaluating Toney's rookie year is difficult given the small sample size from an injury-riddled season as part of a very poor offense but there were a few bright spots.

Considering the Round 1 draft capital, his above-average talent with elite versatility, clear opportunity to become the No. 1 target, and a new head coach destined to improve the offense, Toney checks all the boxes as a breakout candidate. The primary concern for Toney will be his health and availability to deliver consistent fantasy performances.

Toney has an ADP of 88 overall since August 1st, allowing you to acquire him in the middle of your draft after you've already filled out most of your starting lineup. This makes him an excellent upside target who will prove to be a discount if his breakout comes to fruition.

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