Targets, Touchdowns, and Tight Ends: Projecting 2021 TEs

Over the last decade, the tight end (TE) position in fantasy football has largely been defined by three tiers: the “big names” such as Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham, the “middle tier” with Hall of Famers Jason Witten and Antonio Gates, and “the flyers” (remember Coby Fleener?). It was years like 2013 where eight TEs had at least 150 fantasy points and that made the position awesome for fantasy. Last season, there were only three to score 150 points. This displays how in recent years the middle tier has almost disappeared and the big names have become even more valuable. As a result, the TE position is widely recognized as the grossest position in fantasy. 

Regardless of how nauseating it is drafting tight ends not named Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Darren Waller, every fantasy team needs a tight end. Unless you are willing to spend an early third-round pick or better in redraft leagues, you will be in this position. The good news? Someone has to finish fourth and fifth at the position. 

Really, that fourth-fifth finish is what you are shooting for when drafting a TE outside of the big three. So how can we predict the next top-five TE? This is tougher than it sounds, as over the last three years, two-thirds of the top-five tight ends have been named Kelce, Kittle, Waller, or Ertz. Thankfully, there are two main determinants of a top-five finish: targets and touchdowns. In this same time span, every top-five tight end has either had 100 targets or 10 touchdowns (with the only exception being Mark Andrews last year). In this article, I break down the statistics and tell you who I believe could reach these thresholds in 2021.

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Targets

One of the biggest “chicken-egg” conversations in fantasy football is the correlation between usage and talent. Thankfully at the tight end position, this conversation is a lot easier. The NFL has become more dynamic over the years and with it, so have the expectations for tight ends. Rarely do we see tight ends who can’t block have success in fantasy. Nowadays, the position needs to be versatile in order to stay on the field and optimize fantasy opportunities. Therefore, talent has taken a backseat and usage has taken the wheel for driving fantasy success. Jonnu Smith and O.J. Howard are great examples. Both have failed to make their mark in the fantasy landscape being widely considered as elite physical specimens with great football ability. There is no doubt in my mind that if either of these players receives 100 targets, they will be in the top-five at the position, but will they ever see this usage?

When projecting the next top-five tight end for 2021, we need to see what teams are willing to give the position the necessary usage. This is arguably the most important statistic as 12 of the 15 top-five tight ends over the last three years have had 100 or more targets. Although it did not seem like it, there were five tight ends that reached this mark in 2020: Kelce, Waller, Logan Thomas, Evan Engram, and T.J. Hockenson.

Touchdowns

Touchdowns are key in fantasy football but are also one of the hardest statistics to predict. While this is true for every position, it holds even more weight for tight ends. There is no other position where if your player catches a touchdown, they will probably be in the top-12 for the week. Last season, Kelce and Robert Tonyan paved the way with 11 touchdowns, followed by Waller (nine), Jonnu Smith (eight), and somehow Jimmy Graham (eight). It was because of these touchdowns that Tonyan finished as the TE3 and the only reason both Jonnu Smith and Jimmy Graham cracked the top-12 despite having less than 500 yards receiving. In fact, Noah Fant was the only tight end to have less than six touchdowns and be in the top-12 last year. Therefore, to determine who will be a top-five tight end in 2021, it is imperative for them to have the ability to score touchdowns. 

Much like targets, some teams and quarterbacks have more of an inclination to use the tight end in the red-zone than other teams. My favorite example of this was when Jameis Winston was the starter in Tampa Bay and Cameron Brate would magically have six touchdowns every year. Last year, Waller was second in the league (behind Davante Adams) in red-zone targets with 27. The next tight ends were Kelce (22), Graham (22), Gronkowski (21), and Andrews (20) followed by Thomas, Smith, Ebron, and Geisicki (19). Of this list, all made the top-12 except for Ebron. 

Based on this analysis, it seems we have found a recipe for making a top-five tight end. The recipe is 100+ targets, 19+ red-zone targets, and over six touchdowns. If a tight end does this, they will be fantasy gold late in drafts. Here are my picks for who can fit these criteria in 2021.

Undervalued: Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team

I don’t believe many people realize what Thomas did last season. Well, at least I know I didn’t. After being on his seventh NFL team in seven years, I was not overly optimistic about the 29-year-old tight end. However, there is a well-known phenomenon where fantasy managers overvalue the first few weeks of the season. It is this thinking that makes Logan Thomas a steal in 2021 redraft leagues.

Despite dealing with multiple quarterbacks on the Washington Football Team, Logan Thomas was the TE3 from Weeks 5-17 and averaged 10 targets a game over the last five weeks of the season. In 2020, Thomas was third at the position in both targets (110) and receptions (72) and led the team in receiving touchdowns. Thomas is the clear number-two option on the team behind Terry McLaurin, finishing with only 24 fewer targets than the beloved receiver. The team relied on his talents heavily down the stretch and unless they bring in a big-name receiver, there is no reason that his opportunity should change (if not grow) going into the 2021 season. 

To be honest, this narrative seems comparable to Darren Waller’s 2019 breakout. To be clear, I am not saying Thomas will become the top-tier tight end Waller currently is, but there are similarities. Waller and Thomas both broke out at a later age after receiving 110+ targets on teams that relatively lacked offensive weapons and good quarterback play. Plus, a lot of the draw to Waller after 2019 was his off-the-chart athletic measurables. Although not as outstanding as Waller, Thomas is a very impressive athlete. As per PlayerProfiler, Thomas possesses 87th percentile or better in every measurable except burst score (71st). Based on the situation and athletic ability, Thomas fits the target and touchdown criteria to be a potential top-five fantasy tight end.

Breakout: T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions

All too often, Hockenson’s second year gets grouped into the “disappointing TE tier”. However, this was not the case in 2020. Finishing his second year with 101 targets, 723 yards, and six touchdowns, Hockenson was the TE4 on the season. The elite TE prospect showed why he was the eighth overall pick in 2019. Unfortunately, there are a lot of moving pieces with this Lions team heading into 2021. Most notably, the changes in QB and head coach. Jared Goff is a downgrade from Mathew Stafford, however, Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay are both free agents this offseason.

Even if Golladay is franchise-tagged and returns, Goff is known to rely on the “easier” short throws. Averaging 7.2 yards per target, this is exactly where Hockenson thrives. I expect Hockenson to receive similar usage if not more opportunities next season. He also possesses the talent to potentially take a step forward as one of the best tight ends in the league.

Bounce-Back: Evan Engram, New York Giants

Widely regarded as a huge disappointment in 2020, the talented tight end fell victim to an inconsistent Daniel Jones and a case of the drops. Engram was fourth in the league for the most drops across all positions and led all tight ends in this category. Ultimately, this resulted in an awful TE16 finish for the 26-year-old tight end. These are some of the many reasons fantasy managers feel burned by his 2020 performance and will avoid him for 2021. However, there is another side to this story. 

Even though it does not seem like it, Engram was fourth at the position in targets (109) and eighth in yards (654). What led to his demise was his lack of touchdowns. Finishing the year with only one receiving touchdown and one rushing touchdown, Engram became the second TE in the last three years to have 100 or more targets and less than five receiving touchdowns. If we hypothetically gave Engram five receiving touchdowns last year, he would have finished as the TE7. Hopefully, with Saquon Barkley back, the offense as a whole will improve. Unfortunately, there is also speculation that the Giants will sign a free agent or draft a receiver. If the Giants fail to acquire a big name WR or use high draft capital on one, I think Engram’s usage will be maintained in 2021. If his targets are maintained, the touchdowns should follow. As a result, he should be almost guaranteed a top-10 finish and (barring RedZone usage) possibly slide into the top-five.

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