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2021 First Look Fantasy Values: First Base and Second Base

The baseball offseason may officially begin with the end of the World Series but the projections offseason began last Thursday night with the release of the first Steamer projections for 2021. Created and maintained by mathematics teacher Jared Cross and his former students, Steamer remains the industry standard for non-aggregated projection systems, as well as forming the basis for many popular projection systems like RazzBall and Depth Charts.

Projections systems aren't perfect. If they were, we'd all be like Biff in Back to the Future II. Every year, different systems perform differently, in regards to accuracy and do better in some years better than others. Some do better with hitters, some with pitchers, and not just overall but within each category. Projections may not be perfect predictions (although, this guy...) but they can provide reasonable starting points, with Steamer consistently providing some of the best.

Starting today with first and second base, we're going to dig into what Steamer is projecting for this initial run, translating the numbers into fantasy dollars using a basic z-score methodology. This way, we can look at how the actual numbers compare to previous seasons (and future expectations) but also how much that projection would be worth if it actualized, in comparison to his peers.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

Methodology

As mentioned, I converted  Steamer projections into fantasy dollars using a basic z-score method. As a refresher, z-scores is a popular statistical method for converting the totality of a player's scored categories, into a single number, by putting home runs, stolen bases, etc,  on a level playing field for comparison's sake. This is done by going category by category, calculating how each player's total compares to the rest of the league. Hitting 50 home runs may sound like a lot but not if everyone in the league hit at least 45 HR.

To calculate a z-score, you take the player's stat, subtract the average of the player pool, and then divide by the standard deviation of the player pool. For example, Steamer projects Freddie Freeman to hit 33 home runs, with the average of the player pool being 16.7 HR, with a standard deviation of 10.0.

(33 - 16.7)/10 = 1.6 z

A 0.0 z-score is equal to the league average, so Freeman's 1.6 z-score is saying that his 33 home runs are 1.6 standard deviations above the league average. This method is applied to each category (although the method is different for ratio stats) and each z-score is added together. This total z-score is then divided by the total z-scores in the player pool greater than zero and converted to dollars by dividing it by the total amount of fantasy dollars you have allocated for hitters or pitchers, using your chosen split.

This isn't the only valuation system and I'm not saying it's the best but it is reliable and widely used, much like Steamer. We're not trying to set these valuations and projections in stone, we just want to use them as an early and reliable touchstone as we dive into draft season. So, disagree! Whether in regards to playing time or talent rates, I'll be disagreeing plenty. But at least we'll be starting from a point of reasonableness.

 

Player Pool Caveats

When calculating z-scores, the player pool used is of major importance, with the pool getting watered down the bigger it gets. If you add 100 players who average 2 HR to a pool where the averages is 17 HR, the overall average is obviously going drop. For this exercise, I used a 150 PA minimum and a 12-team standard 5x5 roto league.

Feel free to quibble with the number; you should. I myself use a much more targeted player pool when making my own valuations, curated specifically for fantasy purposes. Pablo Sandoval is projected to hit seven home runs in 153 plate-appearances but do I really want him in my pool of players to be evaluated considering he has a massive negative fantasy value and won't be rostered?

But once again, I'm going for more of a neutral look in these valuations, so the player pool is set at a flat 150 PA, a total of 377 players. Just so you see how much player pool size can change valuations, moving to a 250 PA min leaves you with 305 batters (and the pool only loses eight players that were drafted in the top-430 of the 2 Early mock drafts). Ronald Acuna's top value jumps from $47 to $63; player pool matters.

The last caveat is about catchers, whom I treat as their own separate entity from the general player pool. We can get more into this when we get to them but the values for the other positions are being done without the dumpster fire of catching stats dragging everything down. This has a similar effect as limiting the pool by plate-appearances. For reference, Acuna's value with catchers in the pool is about two dollars lower than without.

Finally, a note about disagreeing and how to adjust. Projections are essentially made up of two building blocks. The playing time components (PA, IP) and the talent-rates, which is each projected stat divided by your chosen denominator (HR/PA, K/batter faced, etc). So keep in mind you might only be disagreeing with the overall value because of one or the other, not necessarily both, parts of the projection.

For example, Andres Gimenez is projected to be a below-replacement player but that's much more about his playing time than his projected talent. If he were to get 600 PA instead of his currently projected 421 PA, his line would be, 14 HR - 65 R - 64 RBI - 33 SB - .247 AVG, and his fantasy value would jump to $11.9, coming in as the #13 shortstop, just ahead of Marcus Semien.

 

First Base

Name adp adp_rank stm_rank $ val PA HR R RBI SB AVG
Freddie Freeman 14 1 1  $30.0 662 33 99 101 5 .292
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 70 5 2  $28.6 640 31 93 99 3 .300
Anthony Rizzo 102 8 3  $21.2 663 31 97 94 6 .269
Jose Abreu 37 2 4  $19.9 658 33 88 102 2 .271
Pete Alonso 52 4 5  $17.7 649 43 94 104 2 .246
Paul Goldschmidt 79 7 6  $14.3 662 28 87 88 4 .265
Yuli Gurriel 311 21 7  $12.1 615 23 75 85 4 .273
Matt Olson 74 6 8  $11.8 629 37 87 98 2 .242
Miguel Sano 176 11 9  $10.4 623 39 87 98 2 .234
Eric Hosmer 148 9 10  $ 9.9 647 24 79 85 5 .260
Miguel Cabrera 325 24 11  $9.5 631 23 76 82 2 .271
Luke Voit 46 3 12  $8.3 615 31 85 87 1 .250
Joey Votto 390 28 13  $6.8 674 23 92 75 3 .254
Rowdy Tellez 313 22 14  $4.4 518 25 68 76 3 .258
Renato Nunez 203 13 15  $4.0 608 30 74 86 2 .241
Rhys Hoskins 168 10 16  $3.3 569 30 80 80 3 .233
Carlos Santana 209 14 17  $2.9 641 26 83 84 2 .239
Christian Walker 201 12 18  $1.0 576 23 69 76 4 .245
Bobby Dalbec 304 19 19  $0.8 551 28 70 76 4 .234
Brandon Belt 302 17 20  $0.5 561 20 72 68 3 .254
Jesus Aguilar 286 16 21  $(0.5) 565 25 68 72 2 .244
C.J. Cron 350 25 22  $(2.0) 513 25 64 72 2 .241
Jared Walsh 241 15 23  $(2.8) 519 23 66 69 2 .242
Evan White 318 23 24  $(2.8) 596 24 65 72 5 .233
Colin Moran 353 26 25  $(4.9) 478 16 54 59 1 .265
Josh Fuentes - 26  $(5.3) 507 15 54 59 4 .256
Ji-Man Choi - 27  $(8.9) 444 16 55 54 3 .243
Danny Santana 303 18 28  $(10.8) 385 14 43 44 11 .227
Garrett Cooper 309 20 29  $  (11.1) 426 14 47 49 1 .255
Jake Noll - 30  $ (11.2) 452 11 45 48 4 .253
Ryan O'Hearn - 31  $(12.2) 448 18 53 56 1 .231
Ronald Guzman - 32  $ (13.4) 442 16 48 50 3 .231
Howie Kendrick 412 29 33  $(14.3) 262 9 32 35 2 .282
Daniel Vogelbach 359 27 34  $(14.7) 335 16 43 45 1 .235
Albert Pujols - 35  $(15.1) 341 13 39 45 1 .247
Daniel Murphy - 36  $(15.7) 318 10 37 40 1 .259
Ryan Zimmerman - 37  $(15.8) 300 13 36 39 2 .246
Justin Smoak - 38  $(19.9) 303 13 37 38 1 .222
Eric Thames - 39  $(21.7) 265 11 32 32 2 .220

Surprise, surprise, Freddie Freeman remains the king of the mountain. Freeman is a warm and cuddly blanket that you can wrap around your team in the first two rounds and be confident you're getting a strong base for your offense. Also, in case you missed it, Freeman basically spent 2020 treating right-handed pitching like 2020 has been treating the rest of the world.

No, seriously:

2020 PA AVG OBP SLG ISO wOBA wRC+
vs RHP 200 .373 .495 .733 .360 .499 216

It looks like Steamer thinks that this is the Vlad we've been waiting for. After a disappointing rookie season in which the 20-year-old failed to meet the unrealistic expectations placed upon him, it turns out that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is still probably really good at baseball. Gone was the troublesome 89.4 mph average exit velocity, jumping to 92.5 mph, and his average on fly balls and line drives went from 93.2 mph in 2019 to 94.6 mph in 2020. It obviously follows that he'd see a rise in his hard-hit rate but jumping from 38.7% HH% to above 50% puts him in a new and elite bucket of hardness.

The projection I'm most skeptical about is a .298 AVG, after a .272 AVG in 2019 and a .262 AVG in 2020. Guerrero had a .261 xBA in 2019, a .263 xBA in 2020, and wasn't getting "BABIPed" either (.308, .282). He has a premium hit tool and maybe he'll just flip a switch and start batting .300. But for now, the evidence sure seems to say .270 is more likely. Regardless, at an 80 ADP, Baby Vlad feels pretty juicy and is likely to only go lower.

I'm totally here for the continued raking of Jose Abreu but he's going to cost you on draft day. Abreu leveled up his Statcast page in 2020, posting career-highs in barrel-rate, exit-velocity, xBA, xSLG, wOBA, xwOBA, xwOBAcon, and hard-hit%. Yes, all of them. And it's not like they were bad before, Abreu was just that dominant, finishing as a top-five hitter by most valuation systems. Just looking at the RazzBall player-rater, Abreu finished at #4, essentially tied with Jose Ramirez and just a skip away from Fernando Tatis Jr. and Trea Turner.

The price is going to be high but could be worth it, even if I think he'll be a lot closer to 40 HR than the 50+ he was pacing for in 2020. There is just something to be said for the security of using a premium pick on someone that you can virtually lock-in for 650 PA and a predictable (and high) floor:

Season PA HR R RBI SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
2014 622 36 80 107 3 .317 .383 .581 .411
2015 668 30 88 101 0 .290 .347 .502 .361
2016 695 25 67 100 0 .293 .353 .468 .349
2017 675 33 95 102 3 .304 .354 .552 .377
2018 553 22 68 78 2 .265 .325 .473 .337
2019 693 33 85 123 2 .284 .330 .503 .344
2020 262 19 43 60 0 .317 .370 .617 .411

Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto at #11 and #13? Old-timer revolution! But...Keep in mind that one thing projections don't always do a great job of is accounting for the effect of increased shifting. And both Cabrera and Votto saw big increases in 2020, although was Votto's was the most dramatic:

2018 Shift% 2019 Shift% 2020 Shift%
Joey Votto 37.1 52.6 93.7
Miguel Cabrera 13.1 21.6 46.3

Looking first at their respective wOBA and xwOBA versus standard alignments and shifts, everything seems okay with Cabrera but you can already see trouble brewing with Votto:

woba_std woba_shift +/- xwoba_std xwoba_shift +/-
Joey Votto .431 .336 -.095 .405 .353 -.052
Miguel Cabrera .321 .314 -.007 .364 .359 -.005

Moving on to a better indicator of performance against shifting in wOBAcon and xwOBAcon (wOBA/xwOBA on contact only), Miggy stays level but Votto seems to have guaranteed that 90%+ shifts are coming his way again in 2021:

name wobacon_std vs shift +/- xwobacon_std vs shift +/-
Joey Votto .474 .347 -.127 .443 .374 -.069
Miguel Cabrera .368 .360 -.008 .439 .421 -.018

I have pretty low expectations for Votto, even at a 390 ADP in deeper leagues, regardless of what Steamer says. I'd rather use a late pick on upside instead of what is probably replacement-level production, at best. Cabrera, on the other hand, I don't necessarily think will get shifted more and aren't that worried if he does.

Besides the numbers above, Cabrera had a renaissance in terms of crushing lasers, posting a 93.2 mph average exit-velocity (95.6 mph FB/LD), and 49.7% hard-hit rate that were his highest marks since 2016. The problem is that asking for much more than 550 PA (even if he were healthy all season) from the soon to be 38-year-old is probably pushing it. The production will likely be useful but your league roster settings are going to determine if he's worth rostering.

 

Second Base

Name pos ADP adp_rank stm_rank $ val PA HR R RBI SB AVG
Whit Merrifield 2B,OF 43 3 1  $27.5 691 16 93 66 24 .282
Ozzie Albies 2B 31 1 2  $24.2 641 26 87 84 14 .277
Jose Altuve 2B 113 10 3  $22.7 673 23 93 82 11 .280
D.J. LeMahieu 1B,2B,3B 35 2 4  $20.3 683 19 92 71 7 .293
Ketel Marte 2B 78 7 5  $19.7 666 21 90 79 7 .286
Nick Madrigal 2B 197 14 6  $19.5 565 7 68 59 20 .305
Keston Hiura 2B 70 6 7  $16.4 627 30 81 88 11 .254
Jean Segura 2B,3B 283 24 8  $14.4 649 16 76 74 10 .280
Mike Moustakas 1B,2B 142 12 9  $11.4 620 34 81 94 3 .248
Luis Arraez 2B 348 31 10  $8.4 545 7 65 57 5 .311
Tommy La Stella 1B,2B 252 20 11  $7.1 561 17 73 64 3 .284
Cavan Biggio 2B,3B,OF 67 5 12  $6.7 649 20 88 67 14 .237
Hanser Alberto 2B 351 32 13  $5.4 600 12 66 60 6 .281
Max Muncy 1B,2B,3B 102 8 14  $5.2 641 30 88 84 3 .234
Nick Solak 2B,OF 201 15 15  $4.5 556 18 64 64 9 .263
Brandon Lowe 2B,OF 60 4 16  $3.9 536 24 70 70 6 .251
Jeff McNeil 2B,3B,OF 109 9 17  $3.9 488 14 64 54 6 .285
Robinson Cano 2B 241 19 18  $3.2 516 19 62 70 1 .277
Jurickson Profar 2B,OF 238 18 19  $2.6 541 19 65 65 10 .249
Cesar Hernandez 2B 385 37 20  $2.5 630 11 73 58 7 .269
Donovan Solano 2B 347 30 21  $1.0 599 9 63 59 3 .282
Kolten Wong 2B 337 28 22  $(0.7) 509 9 60 48 13 .261
Ryan McMahon 1B,2B,3B 255 21 23  $(2.2) 526 20 62 65 4 .248
Nicky Lopez 2B - 24  $(2.9) 568 7 60 52 10 .261
Dylan Moore 2B,OF 131 11 25  $(3.4) 471 14 52 48 20 .223
Scott Kingery 2B,OF 337 29 26  $(4.1) 611 18 64 65 12 .225
Michael Chavis 1B,2B,OF 373 36 27  $(4.3) 484 21 58 63 5 .239
Jonathan Schoop 2B 367 35 28  $(4.7) 471 20 57 62 2 .249
Chad Pinder 2B - 29  $(4.8) 499 19 59 63 2 .249
Gavin Lux 2B 196 13 30  $(5.0) 415 14 50 50 7 .259
Christian Arroyo 2B - 31  $(5.3) 450 14 54 54 5 .257
Jon Berti 2B,OF 270 22 32  $(5.3) 464 8 51 39 18 .240
Adam Frazier 2B,OF - 33  $(5.7) 480 10 55 46 6 .265
Rougned Odor 2B 299 25 34  $(5.9) 502 24 57 64 9 .215
Starlin Castro 2B 360 33 35  $(7.2) 424 12 47 53 2 .270
Wilmer Flores 1B,2B 274 23 36  $(7.6) 359 14 44 48 1 .277
Luis Garcia 2B - 37  $(10.2) 374 6 37 38 6 .277
Ty France 2B 314 26 38  $(11.2) 409 14 45 47 2 .253
Enrique Hernandez 2B,OF - 39  $(14.1) 326 13 41 41 2 .248
Luis Rengifo 2B - 40  $(15.2) 317 7 36 33 8 .245
Marwin Gonzalez 1B,2B,3B,OF 360 34 41  $(15.7) 366 11 41 42 1 .248
Franklin Barreto 2B - 42  $(17.2) 322 11 36 38 6 .225
Garrett Hampson 2B,OF 230 17  $(18.0) 231 5 26 23 9 .249
Josh Harrison 2B,3B - 43  $(18.3) 294 7 30 30 5 .249
Jason Kipnis 2B - 44  $(19.0) 332 10 37 37 3 .231
Shed Long 2B -  $(21.8) 234 7 25 24 5 .233
Johan Camargo 2B,3B -  $(22.1) 213 7 25 25 1 .255
Isan Diaz 2B 223 16 45  $(22.3) 264 9 28 28 3 .226
Josh VanMeter 2B -  $(22.5) 188 6 22 21 4 .246
Brendan Rodgers 2B 413 38  $(23.0) 162 5 19 20 2 .270
Jose Peraza 2B -  $(23.4) 167 3 18 17 4 .266
Josh Rojas 2B -  $(24.6) 151 3 17 15 5 .248
Mike Brosseau 1B,2B,3B 322 27  $(25.1) 156 5 18 19 2 .248
Jorge Mateo 2B -  $(26.5) 162 3 16 16 5 .227
Greg Garcia 2B,3B -  $(28.6) 160 2 17 13 2 .235

First base didn't have any monster surprises but the keystone is a different story, with Nicklaus Madrigal (yes, Nicklaus) coming in at #6. His line of 7 HR - 70 R - 60 RBI - .302 Avg doesn't look very exciting but is a great example of how using a valuation system, whether by z-score, SGP, or other, can act as an effective check against assumptions. Because regardless of if you believe in what Steamer projects, Madrigal will be incredibly valuable if he manages something near that line, even if it seems unspectacular.

The power is obviously junk (-1.0 z) and while the counting stats aren't special, Madrigal at least above-average in runs (0.6 z) and RBI (0.2 z). But being pumped up in batting average (3.1 z) and stolen bases (2.4 z) more than makes up for his other shortcoming, showing again how a high-average/speed combo continues to be more valuable than one might think. As teams keep running less, stolen bases continue to be a diminishing resource. And we've been seeing for a while that having a high batting average isn't necessarily a priority for current major leaguers.

Speaking of, that's precisely why Whit Merrifield comes in as the #1 second baseman, not posting as high of an average as Madrigal (.281, 23rd-highest) but projected with a little more speed and a lot more power and runs. He finished 2019 with 16 HR and a disappointing 20 SB (after 45 SB in 2018) but in 2020 he had 9 HR and 12 SB in just 60 games. For context, that extrapolates out to 24 HR and 32 SB in 162 games. Let's not get carried away and make him an automatic 20 HR guy but I think he can approach it and am very confident in the speed, as the Royals have shown no proclivity for stopping the green lights given to their speedsters.

Keston Hiura may have an elite 14.2% barrel-rate but his exit-velocity dropped alarmingly from 91.4 mph in 2019 to 87.4 mph in 2020 (95.1 mph to 93.7 mph on FB/LD). But what continues to be worrisome to me is his plate-discipline issues, posting a 34.6% K% (20.3% SwStr%) in 2020 after a 30.7% K% (17.5% SwStr%) in 2019. There appear to be some significant holes in his swing at the moment and that makes me wonder if a projected .253 AVG is being overly generous.

Kiura's .303 AVG was impressive in 2019 but was only backed by a .265 xBA. And this season, he had a .210 xBA along with his .212 AVG. Besides his overall average, Hiura had just a .148 AVG and .103 xBA versus offspeed pitches, and wasn't much better against breaking balls:

Year Group

%

AVG xBA SLG xSLG wOBA

xwOBA

2019 Fastballs 65.7 .298 .263 .529 .519 .381 .365
2020 Fastballs 60.9 .224 .239 .456 .530 .321 .351
change -4.8 -.074 -.024 -.073 .011 -.060 -.014
2019 Breaking 26.6 .310 .259 .598 .498 .384 .329
2020 Breaking 29.6 .215 .200 .415 .385 .303 .278
change 3.0 -.095 -.059 -.183 -.113 -.081 -.051
2019 Offspeed 7.7 .292 .257 .792 .692 .453 .407
2020 Offspeed 9.5 .148 .103 .185 .112 .180 .138
change 1.8 -.144 -.154 -.607 -.580 -.273 -.269

I'd expect that he will continue to see fewer and fewer fastballs until he can prove he should be pitched otherwise. Hiura's 70 ADP is simply way too high for a 24-year-old who's only had one-half of a good season and is coming off a Mendoza-like batting-average performance that didn't come with many silver linings.

Like a slower Madrigal, Luis Arraez is going to earn his fantasy dollars on the strength of that wicked hit-stick he carries around. Arraez had a .321 AVG in 2020, albeit in just 121 PA after missing most of September dealing with left knee tendinitis, and his .310 AVG leads all Steamer projections for 2021. That makes me love, love, love his dirt-cheap 348 ADP because the worst-case scenario is a near-guaranteed batting-average stabilizer that can be snagged late if your team needs a boost.

And saying near-guarantee might actually be a conservative estimate because his 2021 projections aren't anything new. No matter the level, Arraez hasn't ever run anything but elite averages and on-base percentages, starting when he was just 17-years-old:

Season Level G PA AVG OBP wOBA wRC+
2014 Rookie 31 135 .348 .433 .418 147
2015 Rookie 57 233 .309 .377 .373 133
2016 A 114 514 .347 .386 .385 146
2017 High-A 3 13 .385 .385 .418 168
2018 High-A 60 258 .320 .373 .366 129
2018 Double-A 48 195 .298 .345 .325 103
2019 Double-A 38 164 .342 .415 .379 142
2019 Triple-A 16 73 .348 .397 .360 112
2019 MLB 92 366 .334 .399 .360 125
2020 MLB 32 121 .321 .364 .335 111

If forced to bet my life (or my disappearing Nicholas Cage face, sequined pillow) on a player batting .300 in 2021, I'd put it on Arraez.



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A Favorite At UFC Macau
Shohei Ohtani2 days ago

Named National League MVP In 2024
Aaron Judge2 days ago

Wins American League MVP Award
Cody Bellinger3 days ago

Cubs Looking To Trade Cody Bellinger?
3 days ago

Blake Snell Has Met With Red Sox, Dodgers
Chris Sale3 days ago

Wins National League Cy Young Award
Tarik Skubal3 days ago

Wins 2024 American League Cy Young Award
Austin Eckroat3 days ago

Heads To The RSM Classic After Win
Harris English3 days ago

Finding Form Heading To The RSM Classic
Ben Griffin3 days ago

Continues Playing Well Heading To The RSM Classic
Denny McCarthy3 days ago

Returns to The RSM Classic
Ludvig Aberg3 days ago

Looks To Defend RSM Classic Title
Si Woo Kim3 days ago

An Intriguing Option At RSM Classic
Maverick McNealy3 days ago

In Solid Form Ahead Of RSM Classic
Eric Cole3 days ago

Chasing First Tour Victory At RSM Classic
4 days ago

Guardians' Stephen Vogt Named AL Manager Of The Year
Milwaukee Brewers4 days ago

Pat Murphy Named NL Manager Of The Year
4 days ago

Nick Pivetta Declines Boston's Qualifying Offer
Jose Siri4 days ago

Mets Acquire Jose Siri From The Rays
Charles Oliveira6 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Michael Chandler6 days ago

Gets Dominated At UFC 309
Karine Silva6 days ago

Suffers Her First UFC Loss

RANKINGS

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RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
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C
1B
2B
3B
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OF
SP
RP

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