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Mike Marteny offers his 2021 NCAA Tournament Sleeper Picks By Region. Don't fill out your March Madness brackets without finding out where to get a leg up on your competition!
The brackets are out! This is just like Christmas morning. We now have the road map for the most chaotic two weeks of the year in any sport and it's glorious. Most of the time, the chaos is over by the time we get to the regional finals, but not always! Take for instance the 2018 South Region in which the best seed standing after the first weekend was number 5 Kentucky. Speaking of which, this is the first installment of the NCAA Tournament in which Kentucky and Duke have not been involved since 1976. I wasn't even born yet! Coincidentally, that was also the last time a team went undefeated and won the National Championship. Guess who is undefeated and the top overall seed this year? It's Gonzaga, and every talking head on ESPN picked them. If you're looking for leverage, pick Gonzaga to lose somewhere along the line. It doesn't even matter where at this point.
It's also prudent to pick at least two number one seeds in the Final Four, but not all four. All four number ones have only made the Final Four one time. That was in 2008. There have only been eight National Championship games in history to feature a game between two number one seeds. That's where I come in. We will be taking a look at the best sleepers for each region in the 2021 NCAA Tournament. If you're thinking about anti-chalk, only the 2011 tournament failed to see a one or a two seed in the Final Four. Some chalk is good. Not all.
In this article, I will be providing you with my sleepers for the 2021 NCAA tournament. I’ll be giving the best team(s) in each region capable of making a run based on their road to the championship. I'm trying to identify who will wreck brackets. Even if you don't have the stones to pick these, be wary of picking a team playing one of these dangerous sleepers to make a deep run. Once you're done here, be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts and guides on how to fill out your brackets. Good luck RotoBallers! Hopefully more than a few of you win your office pool!
West Region
We begin at the beginning, as in the top overall seed in Gonzaga. By many accounts, this is the most complete Gonzaga team we have seen. They also have the easiest road to the Final Four. The two seed in this region, Iowa, lost to Gonzaga by 11 back in November. Four seed Virginia and three seed Kansas both had to withdraw from their respective conference tournaments due to COVID protocols. It is unclear who from each team was affected or if every player will even be available. Five seed Creighton is in a frightening tailspin. That makes for an inherently weak region.
So if Gonzaga is such a strong team, why pick them to lose? Better yet, when? That's where it gets tricky. First off, Gonzaga only has one Final Four appearance in their history. They haven't always fared well as the hunted in this tournament. They did better as hunters. Also, you're missing the point! It's a way to create leverage, but you can also win by picking the right upsets and still having Gonzaga win the whole thing.
I do think Gonzaga wins this region, but I don't think all four top seeds make it out of the first weekend. Oklahoma is also spiraling, but this team is dangerous enough to give Gonzaga a run. However, I will admit that Oklahoma could play a perfect game and still not win if Gonzaga is on. That brings us to Ohio. The Bobcats only lost to Illinois by two points back in November and they beat Horizon Champion Cleveland State by 55 points. All five starters average double figures and four of the five shoot better than 35% from beyond the arc. If Virginia is missing a piece or two because of COVID, Ohio has a legit chance to win this. Not only that, they could be Gonzaga's opponent on the second weekend. If you're picking a 13 seed to shock the tournament, Ohio is your choice.
USC and Oregon are both dangerous as six and seven seeds. Are either of them good enough to beat Gonzaga? No, but USC can give Kansas a run, especially if they are short-handed. Oregon is a very good team on both ends of the court. They defend the perimeter well enough to keep Iowa's shooters in check, but Luka Garza is still going to be a problem for the Ducks. I don't think I'm brave enough to pick that. I also don't think I'm brave enough to pick Gonzaga to lose before the Final Four.
My sleepers in this region likely won't make it out of the first weekend. Ohio probably has the best chance. They are underseeded and can score points in bunches. If Creighton gets hot, they can play with anyone, but they skidded into the tournament this year. The Jays got manhandled by Georgetown in the Big East final.
USC is the team seeded fourth or worse with the best shot at the regional semifinals. It's not a good one. The Trojans match up well with Kansas, but not with Iowa.
South Region
Baylor has been a heavyweight all season. Their first loss was to Kansas and it didn't happen until the middle of February. The other was to white-hot Oklahoma State in the Big 12(10) final. However, there are a lot of dangerous teams in this region. Six seed Texas Tech is one of the best defensive teams in the nation. Even if Arkansas survives Colgate, they'll have issues with Texas Tech.
14 seeds have won 21 times against three seeds, but only two have made it past the first game and no one has done it since Chattanooga in 1997. However, 14 seeds have beaten a 3 seed five times since 2013. The best 14 seed this year would have to be Colgate. They run a modern take on the slow, plodding Princeton offense. Meanwhile, Arkansas is one of the faster-paced teams in the tournament. Jordan Burns is possibly the best player at a mid-major school, but I doubt he does it himself. On the outside chance that Colgate can control the pace, they have a good shot at winning this. We've seen how vulnerable Arkansas can be when Moses Moody doesn't play well.
The last time North Carolina was an eighth seed, which is the lowest seed they've ever got, was in 2000. They went to the Final Four that year. However, I don't think they don't have the size to handle Baylor. The Bears are a strong defensive team and have some very good hybrid guards.
Virginia Tech at a 10 seed is a bit ridiculous. I like the combo of Justyn Mutts and Keve Aluma to dominate the interior against a guard-oriented Florida team. I see the Hokies rolling in round one and they could put a hell of a scare into Ohio State in the second round. I could also see Virginia Tech winning that game if you want to get a little crazy with a double-digit seed. Ohio State is being dominated by Duane Washington and E.J. Liddell right now. If the Hokies can stop one, they can win this.
Chandler Vaudrin is good enough to carry Winthrop and he won't have to deal with Collin Gillespie's defense. This will be the most common 12-5 upset pick as many see Villanova as a team that just doesn't have it without Gillespie. That can't be further from the truth. Chris Arcidiacono will get better and the Wildcats will have more of a rhythm with a week of Arcidiacono practicing with the first team. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl is a force that not many teams can handle. That's why I won't be picking Winthrop here. Villanova is good enough to make a Sweet 16 run and is good enough to beat Baylor if Arcidacono gels with the rest of the team on the fly.
This is a region with some very dangerous lower seeds. Texas Tech could go all the way to the Elite Eight. They are that good, but they sometimes have trouble scoring. That could be a fatal flaw against Ohio State or Virginia Tech. Villanova could make it out of the first weekend as well. Purdue is a balanced team, but Villanova is good enough to defend all of their pieces. Baylor and Ohio State are good heavyweights though. I have a hard time seeing Texas Tech oust a Baylor team that beat them by 15 in the Big 12(10) tournament last week.
If Virginia Tech can make it past Ohio State (a big if), they have a great shot at Baylor. Baylor's guards are better, but the Virginia Tech interior is good enough to play with anyone. It all depends on if Mutts can keep up his recent surge. Their loss to North Carolina in the ACC tournament is going to keep me from personally taking Virginia Tech past Ohio State. Armando Bacot dominated them on the inside, which is something they can't let happen. Ohio State will eat them alive.
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East Region
This is the region that could get crazy. Michigan is the weakest one seed out there. Three of their four losses on the season have come in the last five games. The fourth was about a month ago when they were manhandled by a Minnesota team that was about to go on a massive losing streak. If you're looking to take at least one number one seed to go down, it should be Michigan. So who takes them down and when?
It could come as early as the second round. LSU is a lot like Oklahoma State. They are a young team hitting their stride at the right time. That makes them very dangerous in the bracket that is most likely to be razed. The East Region is wide open. The inside-outside combo of Trendon Watford and Cameron Thomas could be a big problem for Michigan. LSU is the most likely eight seed to get out of the first weekend. They are playing very well right now and Isaiah Livers will be out for Michigan the first weekend.
I feel for Colorado. I really do. Georgetown won the Big East tournament and looked damn good doing it. I'm a big fan of Colorado, but this is a bad draw for them. The Hoyas are the best three-point shooting team in the Big East - yes, even better than Creighton - and they defend the interior very well. My pick of the 12's is Georgetown even though they have practically no shot at Florida State. If Michigan survives LSU, I doubt they get past Florida State.
The 11's are 14-14 against six seeds since 2013, despite being 52-88 overall. A lot of this has to do with 11 seeds playing the play-in games. 11 seeds are often power five teams that are playing well at the end of the year. This year is no different. We have some very live 11 seeds here and more than one of them should survive the first weekend. After all, at least one double-digit seed has advanced past the first weekend in every tournament since 2008.
The real prize of the 11 seeds is Michigan State. There's something about Tom Izzo in March. Rocket Watts struggled earlier in the year, but the Spartans have come on as he has gained control of this team. The Spartans won five of the last eight, including three against top five teams in Ohio State, Illinois, and Michigan. Good luck BYU and Texas. You're going to need it. Michigan State should handle LSU, but Texas is an entirely different animal. A very big animal.
Only eight 15 seeds have beaten a two seed, but it has happened four times in the last eight tournaments. In picking an upset like this, you need to look for the most vulnerable 2 seed. To me, that's Houston. Horizon League Champion Cleveland State isn't the most dangerous 15 seed though. That's Iona. Why Iona? They are coached by Rick Pitino. In a year in which neither Kentucky nor Louisville is in the tournament, Slick Rick still got in there.
The Gaels will run with Alabama and they are a good three-point shooting team. Those are the necessary elements to pull an upset like this. However, this is a bad draw for the Gaels. Alabama is extremely balanced, which makes it really difficult for a less talented team to beat them. I don't see a 15 winning this year. If you must pick one, I guess I would go with Iona.
Alabama is one team that will be hoping Michigan State makes a run to the Regional semis. The Tide don't match up well with Texas. Texas is a team that could bully them into submission. Alabama matches up much better with the Spartans, and have to be considered a Final Four favorite right now. The Tide will also hope for a deep run for LSU. The Tigers pushed the Tide in the SEC title game, but that was the first time in three meetings that LSU kept the game within single digits.
At least one sleeper will make a good run here. LSU or Florida State will take out Michigan. It's your choice as to which one you want to pick to do it. Georgetown is playing very well right now and will be a live dog against Florida State if you're feeling super frisky.
Midwest Region
Illinois is a very good team. Ayu Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn are matchup nightmares for a lot of teams, but not the nine seed in this region. The only 9 seed I see winning the first round is Georgia Tech. Moses Wright is a monster on the inside and Loyola-Chicago doesn't have the size to handle him. As far as that goes, the Bees have a puncher's chance at Illinois. Jose Alvarado and Wright can handle Dosunmu and Cockburn. The issue then becomes if Georgia Tech's secondary players can outplay those of Illinois. It's unlikely, but not impossible.
Oklahoma State is one of the hottest teams going right now. It started with a sweep of Bedlam in the course of three days at the end of February and culminated in a Big 12(10) tournament championship. Tennessee is not playing well enough right now to push the Cowboys, so I see OSU having a great chance to oust Illinois.
Much is made over who is the better conference, the Big 12(10) or the Big Ten(14). To me, the Big Ten(14) is more top-heavy. The Big 12(10) is more balanced, which is plain to see considering only three teams in this conference didn't get a dance invite. Considering Oklahoma State just took out a very good Baylor team, they have more than a good chance at Illinois. It might be about 50/50 right now. Oklahoma State is my favorite team seeded four or lower to get to the Final Four.
Now the other shoe. I would say Liberty is are more dangerous than most 13 seeds. They run the same scheme as Virginia and are an excellent defensive team. Liberty's defensive scheme is going to be a problem for this young team, but I have serious questions as to whether Liberty can score enough no matter how well the defense plays.
This 6 vs. 11 matchup could be the most intriguing one. Syracuse looks better than an 11 seed. San Diego State was a top ten team earlier in the year. The Aztecs are one of the more balanced teams you will find. Syracuse has a couple of monsters upfront in Alan Griffin and Quincy Guerrier. Buddy Boeheim has found his missing shooting touch as well. The Orange could pull one of those fabled 11-6 upsets here.
The bottom of this bracket looks underwhelming at first glance. Houston is the worst two seed. West Virginia gets a three seed despite losing their last two games of the season to four seed Oklahoma State. Look closer though and you'll realize that West Virginia is a very dangerous team. They only lost to Gonzaga by five points in the Jimmy V Classic.
The caveat is that less than a month after this game, Oscar Tshiebwe left the team. Gabe Osabuohein has stepped up in his absence, but he's not the same player. I see West Virginia advancing to at least the Regional Final here. They will certainly have problems with Illinois, but they have a good chance of advancing to a Final Four this year, provided they can survive an all-out assault from the Orange should Syracuse beat San Diego State. The Mountaineers are essentially SDSU on steroids.
The winner of the 7-10 matchup in this region has a great chance to take out Houston before WVU/Syracuse/SDSU gets to them. I would be shocked if Houston made it out of the first weekend.
There we go! In just six short days, we'll cut the field from 68 teams down to just 16. These are the single greatest five days in any sport, worldwide. Enjoy it! It only comes once a year!
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