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Pittsburgh Pirates relief pitcher Richard Rodriguez is a sleeper and undervalued draft target for 2021 fantasy baseball leagues. Brian Rudd evaluates Rodriguez's value at his current ADP.
Saves are a scarce commodity in today's game, as more and more teams are relying on multiple relievers to handle ninth-inning duties. In last year's abbreviated season, just 10 pitchers reached double digits in the category. Going a little further down the list, only 18 closed out seven or more games, and that includes guys like Brandon Workman, Zach Britton, and Jeremy Jeffress, who aren't being drafted for saves in 2021.
The skills of a pitcher are obviously very important to analyze when projecting performance and setting a draft or auction plan in place. However, as far as closers go, fantasy managers also need to consider other factors, such as prior track record in the role, team philosophy, and level of competition in the bullpen.
The Pirates aren't likely to be a very competitive team in 2021, but they will still have several players who are valuable for our purposes. One likely candidate is Richard Rodriguez, who seems likely to enter the season as the team's closer, and checks at least most of the boxes listed above.
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Post-Hype Appeal
Rodriguez was a late-bloomer who didn't make his big league debut until the age of 27, when he made five appearances for the Orioles in 2017. He was scooped up by the Pirates the following winter and has had plenty of success there over the past three seasons, appearing in 159 games and posting a 3.02 ERA and 28.2% K%.
In 2020, Rodriguez flashed the best skills of his career, and his 2.70 ERA was fully supported by the underlying numbers. Both his FIP and xFIP were sub-3.00 as well, as Rodriguez put up an impressive 36.6% K%, and walked just 5.4% of opposing batters. In total, his 31.1% K-BB% ranked 11th among all pitchers who tossed 20-plus innings on the year.
He has basically stuck to a two-pitch arsenal throughout his career, and in 2020, threw his four-seamer about 72% of the time and his curve the remaining 28%. Here is a look at the whiff percentage each year on those pitches, from the Brooks Baseball website.
The sample is obviously small for any relief pitcher during the short 2020 season, but the step forward in whiffs on Rodriguez's curve is impressive nonetheless. When there were two strikes on an opposing batter, all 13 at-bats that ended with a curveball were via the strikeout, and for the season he allowed just one hit (a single) on the pitch in 20 at-bats (108 thrown).
Rodriguez finished the season really strong. He didn't allow a single run in his final 11 appearances, spanning 10 2/3 innings, during which time he whiffed 16 batters (38.1% K%), walked three, and allowed just six hits.
Rodriguez had a pretty firm grip on the closer role when the 2020 season came to an end, and looks like the pretty clear favorite for ninth-inning duties when the 2021 season kicks off. He saved four games for the Pirates a season ago, the first of which came on August 23rd. Starting with that date, there was just one game that was saved by a different reliever (Nik Turley), and that was the second game of a double-header after Rodriguez had already slammed the door in game one.
Further strengthening the case for Rodriguez as closer entering the season is that the Pirates don't have any superior options in the pen, and they aren't in the mix to add high-end talent. They certainly aren't likely to be a good team this coming season, but even the worst teams present a healthy dose of save chances. Given how weak the Pirates offense projects to be, most of the wins will probably be close games.
The flipside of playing for a bottom-feeder team is that one can be a trade candidate come July. The Pirates, who have already traded away Joe Musgrove, will probably be in sell mode at the deadline, and probably wouldn't hesitate to deal a 31-year-old reliever, even one that is under team control for two additional seasons.
Even if Rodriguez is eventually dealt, those who invest in him on draft day stand a strong chance of getting four good months out of him in the closer role. Over the past month (January 6-February 5), he is the 18th reliever off the board in NFBC Draft Champions leagues at pick 198. That presents a fair amount of profit potential at a position with so much uncertainty, making him an attractive mid-round target.
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