Tanner Houck (SP, BOS) - 2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleepers

Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Tanner Houck is a fantasy baseball sleeper and undervalued draft target for the 2021 season. Dan Fox evaluates Houck's value at current ADP and explains how he could help fantasy managers.

The Red Sox haven’t developed a legitimate MLB starting pitcher since Clay Buchholz, but Tanner Houck has the potential to be just that.

Houck was the Red Sox’s first-round pick back in 2017 and steadily climbed the system since then, never putting up eye-popping numbers but always holding his own at every level he was sent to. Houck was called up from the alternative site when every other Red Sox pitcher forgot how to get batters at, and he dominated in each of his three starts, allowing just one run and striking out 21. Houck did struggle with his control, as he walked nine batters in only 17 innings, which is something that plagued him through his minor league career.

Even with the control problems, there’s a lot to like about Houck’s profile. He’s got a heavy fastball that tops out in the mid-’90s, a swing and miss slider, and a changeup/splitter hybrid that he mixes in on occasion. At 6’5, 210 with a three-quarter delivery, Houck reminds one of a right-handed Chris Sale, though the Red Sox would be perfectly happy with a mid-rotation starter. Does this make him a fantasy sleeper worth targeting though?

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Finding a Niche

If Houck starts the season on the Opening Day roster, he will likely exceed his projection as the 124th-best pitcher. Houck can generate both swings and misses (career minor league K/9 over 9) and ground balls with a 47% GB% last year, which keeps both his floor and his ceiling high. He will also play in what should be at least an average offense, so he’ll get enough run support to win games if he pitches competitively.

At 25, Houck doesn’t need more seasoning in the minors, and he proved last summer that he can pitch at the big league level. The big question is whether the Red Sox will even have room for him in the rotation. After Nathan Eovaldi, whose salary basically guarantees he will be in the rotation, the Red Sox will welcome back Eduardo Rodriguez, who missed all of last season with myocarditis stemming from COVID, Martin Perez, who re-signed after a solid 2020, and Garrett Richards, who signed a two-year deal after defecting from the loaded Padres rotation. All of these pitchers have a proven MLB pedigree and are locks to start the season in the rotation, so Houck’s best shot is to sneak in into the fifth spot.

Right now, the odds on favorite to get the fifth spot is Nick Pivetta, a 28-year-old right-hander who was acquired from the Phillies last summer. Pivetta's stuff has always been tantalizing, and he will likely make the roster in some form as he is out of minor-league options, yet he has a career ERA near five and a half, so the opportunity is there for Houck to win a spot with a strong spring training and push Pivetta to the bullpen. However, Red Sox pitching coach Dave Bush gave a telling quote about Houck’s immediate future when he said “[Houck] is going to need a quality third pitch to stay in the majors.” Given that Houck’s splitter is inconsistent at best, that quote would seem to indicate that the Red Sox will send him to the minors to continue to develop his off-speed repertoire. 

2021 Outlook

The overall projections on Houck are not bullish. All of the five major projections sites predict Houck will throw around 100 innings and strikeout about eight batters per nine innings, but only ATC has Houck with an ERA below 5.00. It makes sense that the projections are low on Houck; he’s a 25-year-old with only three major league starts, and he has never had elite minor league numbers. His lack of a third pitch limits his ability to work deep into games, and he doesn’t have exceptional strikeout rates. Simply put, Houck has the tool kit of a backend starter or middle reliever.

Yet even with all that said, it’s hard to forget how dominant he was last year, even in an extremely small sample size. Watching him dominate for three straight stars made it easy to see why Houck was a first-round pick. His fastball and slider simply overwhelmed hitters, and he was able to keep hitters off-balance with his heavy sinker. Houck will pitch competitive baseball if he is given enough time in the majors. He won’t be an innings-eater due to his lack of a deep repertoire, but he will give the Red Sox a chance to win every time out. The only question is whether he will get the opportunity to do so.

There is no denying that Houck is a risky pick, but in terms of late-draft starting pitchers, it’s hard to find a guy with more sleeper potential than Houck. 

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