2020 Starting Pitcher Sleepers - September Surgers

April 22, 2020

Frank Ammirante looks at starting pitchers who had a strong September in 2019 and could still be undervalued draft targets in 2020 fantasy baseball leagues.

September can be an overlooked month for Fantasy Baseball players, particularly those who are out of contention. It’s a month where we might miss strong performances from players who have fallen off of our radar due to previous struggles. However, if you dig deeper into September performances, you might find some potential gems to target in the following season.

Lance Lynn is a terrific example of a player who had an overlooked September surge back in 2018 with the New York Yankees. If we remove a blow-up start on September 2nd, he finished with a 2.37 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 3.57 SIERA, 23.0 K%, 5.4 BB%, and 17.6 K-BB% in his final four starts. Lynn went on to become one of the biggest steals in 2019 drafts - after being drafted with a 511.07 NFBC ADP, he turned in SP2 numbers for the Texas Rangers: 208.1 innings, 16 wins, 3.67 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 246 strikeouts. 

In this article, I’ll examine three starting pitchers with NFBC ADPs lower than 200 to find sleepers among September surgers. Marcus Stroman, Sandy Alcantara, and Reynaldo Lopez each fit these criteria. Let’s delve further into their profiles to see why you should target them with confidence in your drafts.

Marcus Stroman, New York Mets (203 ADP)

Marcus Stroman was traded to the New York Mets at the trade deadline, so we’ll omit his stats with the Toronto Blue Jays, since it will be a much different team and league context for Stro in 2020. As we can see in this table, Stroman improved during the month of September, likely because he began to feel more comfortable with his new team.

It’s always difficult for pitchers to adjust to new environments, so his early struggles in New York could be a result of this challenge. It’s intriguing to see his improvement in strikeout-to-walk ratio, as his 16.4 K-BB% would be a career-high. We can reasonably project improvement here over a full season, since Stroman will no longer have to pitch in hitter havens like Camden Yards or Rogers’ Centre.

Stroman induces ground-balls at a high rate (four seasons with a GB% greater than 60%), so leaving the Rogers’ Centre turf will help. While the Mets’ infield defense has been much-maligned, there should be improvements here - shortstop Amed Rosario is still only 24, plus Jeff McNeil is projected to play third base full-time, which is his best defensive position.

Even if the infield defense remains mediocre, the ballpark and league upgrade will outweigh this factor. Stroman is highly motivated to perform at a high level after a slow start to his Mets career. The team will rely on him more with the season-ending injury to Noah Syndergaard. Stroman looks like a nice target as a late-round, high-volume option.

Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins (263 ADP)

Sandy Alcantara was once the jewel of the Marcell Ozuna trade, grading out as a solid pitching prospect with potential to develop into a number two or three starter. Now entering his age-24 season, Alcantara showed some encouraging signs in September, providing optimism for growth in 2020.

The most noticeable improvement is with his strikeout-to-walk ratio, with 8.6 percent increase, indicating an increased level of comfort and confidence on the mound. We also see a 4.3 percent increase in groundball rate, which shows that Alcantara was able to induce more weak contact in September. Alcantara was able to provide high volume for a rebuilding Marlins team in 2019, so we can safely project more of the same in the upcoming shortened season.

Alcantara’s best pitch is his four-seamer, averaging 95.6 MPH with a strong spin rate and earning a 10.1 Pitch Value. His arsenal also includes a changeup, curveball, sinker, and slider. The curveball (.270 xwOBAcon) induced weak contact, while the changeup (17.3 SwStr%) missed bats.

This is a young pitcher who has proven to log high volume, showing intriguing improvements in control and batted ball profile. He’ll also toe the rubber in a pitcher-friendly environment at Marlins Park. Alcantara warrants a selection past pick 250 in your fantasy drafts. His strong September provides glimpses of upside for this 2020 outlook.

Reynaldo Lopez, Chicago White Sox (319 ADP)

Reynaldo Lopez is one of the most polarizing pitchers in Fantasy Baseball. Here we have a 26-year-old pitcher who can rotate between a complete-game, double-digit strikeout gem and a four-inning, six-run blow-up. Despite his inconsistency, it’s hard to avoid a pitcher who can put up lines like this: 9.0 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 11 K.

Lopez’s September was similar to previous months in the way that he rotated dominance with spurts of mediocrity - his tail-end starts were Jacob deGrom-esque, sandwiched with three consecutive outings allowing five or more runs. Still, we see that Lopez was able to improve on his control, as seen with the 5.8 percent increase in K-BB%. The problem in 2019 was his inflated home run rate, as his 1.71 HR/9 was a significant increase from his 1.19 HR/9 in 2018. We can project a rate closer to career norms in 2020.

Lopez enters the 2020 season with an improved team context. The Chicago White Sox have added catcher Yasmani Grandal, one of the best framers in the MLB, to help with their young pitchers. Grandal will be an asset to this pitching staff - his guidance could potentially help Lopez unlock some of that upside that we have seen in stretches of dominance.

There are not many pitchers in MLB who can dominate in the same way that Lopez can. Coming off consecutive with 180+ innings pitched, Lopez is another high-volume option that can be had past pick 300 in your fantasy drafts. 

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