RADIO
Michael Florio reviews the 2020 NFL schedule to find players at each position (QB, RB, WR, TE) who are positively and negatively affected for fantasy football.
The NFL schedule release is an event that many fans look forward to each year. Due to current circumstances, you may be more excited than ever before to see your teams’ schedules. The first step many fans likely take is to look over their favorite team’s schedule and count potential wins or losses, tallying up the record. You will probably convince yourself that if things break right, your team can do better than expected. If you are into gambling, you may look over all teams’ schedules and start to figure out which win/loss totals you like best. You know, the normal stuff all NFL fans do when the schedule is released.
But for fantasy football players, we look over the schedule and naturally start to think which teams have a favorable or unfavorable schedule for their skill players. That is where I come into play. I took the fantasy points per game (PPG) that each team allowed to the four main fantasy positions in 2019: QB, RB, WR, TE. I then took each team's 2020 schedule and found the average fantasy PPG their opponents allowed to each position. This allowed me to find which individual players have favorable schedules and which do not.
The one caveat is that this is not a perfect study. Defenses change from year to year. Free-agent signings or departures, new draft picks, players retiring, players returning from injury, coaching changes, and different strength of schedules all will play a factor in changing a defense. It is hard to quantify all of that. Just because a team allowed the most fantasy points to a position in 2019, does not make them any kind of lock to do so again the next year. But we are not trying to find exact numbers and turn those into our expectations for the season. What we are simply trying to do is find schedules that can be exploited and use it to our advantage in fantasy football.
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Fantasy Impact of QB Schedules
Teddy Bridgewater takes over a Panthers offense that has plenty of weapons in D.J. Moore, Christian McCaffrey, Curtis Samuel, Robby Anderson and Ian Thomas. He also takes over for a team with the best QB schedule using 2019 fantasy PPG allowed. The opponents he is lined up to face in 2020 allowed an average of 17.72 fantasy PPG to signal callers in 2019, the most in the NFL.
Still, Bridgewater is a QB2 for fantasy purposes for me because he has never shown the ability to be a prolific passer. He’s had success in the NFL but has never averaged 250 passing yards per game (as a starter) and has never averaged at least two passing TDs per game. He also is not a big down the field thrower. There was not much for me to get excited about with Bridgewater other than the weapons. The schedule is another thing to get excited about and can be used to bump him a tad in the rankings.
Dak Prescott has the second-best schedule, with his opponents allowing an average of 17.53 fantasy PPG to QBs in 2019. Also, he is surrounded by the best weapons in the NFL. I mean Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb, Ezekiel Elliott and you can throw in Blake Jarwin. There will be so much fantasy production to be had. I am just begging the Cowboys to pay this man. Do not get cute and ruin what could be the best offense in the NFL. Prescott was already my overall QB3 before they drafted Lamb. That move along with this schedule does nothing at all to change that. In fact, all it does is make him closer to the Tier 1 QBs (Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson).
Jared Goff flopped last year. After finishing as the QB7 in 2018, he fell to the QB13 in 2019. The offensive line definitely receives part of the blame, but Goff did himself no favors with his play. He has an opportunity to right his 2019 wrongs, especially given that he has the fourth-most favorable schedule for fantasy. Goff’s 2020 opponents allowed an average of 17.27 fantasy PPG to QBs last season. He is going off the board as a fantasy backup and not even a high-end one at that, meaning there is upside to be had here if he can take advantage of the matchups and return to pre-2019 form.
Russell Wilson will be in the QB3 discussion all summer long but due to the weapons that Prescott has and the favorable schedule, he comes in third for me. But Wilson comes in right behind him as my QB4 and the schedule only cements that. Wilson has the fifth easiest schedule for QBs, based off of 2019 fantasy points allowed. In total, his 2020 opponents allowed an average of 17.24 fantasy PPG. Add in the fact that he has more receiving talent now, plus Seattle has a banged-up run game and have talked about letting Russ air it out this year. The run-heavy offense has made him an up-and-down weekly play, but I would expect some big performances this season.
Deshaun Watson will continue to be in the top-five fantasy QB discussion with Dak, Russ, as well as Kyler Murray. The loss of DeAndre Hopkins already had people souring on Watson. I have an upcoming article that breaks down how to value Watson in fantasy football this season. But it doesn’t help that the Texans have the second hardest QB schedule based off of 2019 fantasy points allowed. The Texans 2020 opponents allowed an average of 16.13 fantasy PPG last season. It is just another reason to be a little weary about Watson. To me, he comes in behind the other three going around the same range as him.
Tua Tagovailoa is probably the most hyped up athlete going to Miami since LeBron James. And with good reason, as the upside is sky-high. But we know that he comes with some injury risks, especially considering he is still recovering from a dislocated hip suffered in November. Due to that, whether or not he even plays this season is up in the air. I am of the mindset that we will see him play, but it is far from a guarantee. If we do, we are still not sure when.
Add in that Miami has the toughest schedule for QBs, facing opponents who allowed an average of 15.83 fantasy PPG to QBs. It doesn’t help that Miami plays the Pats and Bills twice, each of who finished in the top three in fewest fantasy points allowed to QBs. Tua is a strong dynasty pick, but for re-draft he is best saved for two-QB or superflex drafts and that is about it.
Sam Darnold is another AFC East QB that has to face the Bills and Pats twice a year. That puts him behind the eight ball, but it doesn’t help that the rest of the schedule is tough too. In total, the Jets face teams who allowed an average of 16.32 fantasy PPG to QBs last year. That is the third-hardest QB schedule heading into 2020. Then there's the fact he has Adam Gase as a head coach and you can see why Darnold is valued as a low-end QB2. I do believe he is talented and has upside in that arm, but the tough schedule, the Gase factor and the lack of mobility makes him merely a reserve pick in the later rounds of redraft leagues.
Other QBs with favorable schedules: Aaron Rodgers, Tyrod Taylor (Justin Herbert), Kirk Cousins, Lamar Jackson.
Other QBs with tough schedules: Derek Carr, Ryan Tannehill, Patrick Mahomes, Drew Lock and Kyler Murray.
Fantasy Impact of RB Schedules
Jonathan Taylor has the best RB schedule heading into the 2020 season. Notice that I didn't say Marlon Mack. Mack may be the incumbent, but the Colts traded up in the second round to grab Taylor and are clearly in win-now mode with Philip Rivers. Also, in the last five years any RB drafted in the first two rounds have averaged 211 touches in their rookie year. Taylor may be a little slow out the gate, but he has league-winning upside behind that offensive line and with Rivers, who loves to dump it off to RBs. Taylor faces a schedule that allowed an average of 25.27 fantasy PPG to RBs last season. It may take a couple weeks to get the full Taylor, but it’ll be well worth the wait.
Dalvin Cook is a top-five pick in fantasy drafts and the schedule only cements that. Cook and the Vikings take on a schedule that allowed an average of 25.03 fantasy PPG to RBs. Take Cook in the first half of the first round and don’t get too cute.
One of Ke’Shawn Vaughn or Ronald Jones II will be the benefactor of the third-best running back schedule in the NFL. I have a very in-depth article on what to expect from the Bucs offense in 2020 and I explain why I am on the Vaughn side. But the short of it is, Bruce Arians inherited Jones, did not use him as a feature back, and then used a third-round pick on a RB in a year they are clearly going all in on.
Vaughn, like Taylor, may have to share work early on but I do expect him to ultimately win out. His upside is the highest because he projects more like a three-down back than Jones does. Either way, the Bucs' 2020 opponents allowed an average of 24.87 fantasy PPG in 2019. There is obvious upside considering the offense and favorable schedule.
David Montgomery struggled through his rookie year, but he still saw 267 touches. That volume could lead to much better results this season, as the Bears have the fourth-friendliest schedule for RBs. Their 2020 opponents allowed an average of 24.78 fantasy PPG to RBs last season. Add in that he has a year of NFL experience under his belt, an upgrade at QB and should dominate carries for the Bears and Montgomery quickly becomes a low-end RB2 with upside. The best part is, you can get him as an RB3 in early drafts.
Chris Carson always produces RB1 numbers, but you never need to pay the RB1 price. He does come with some risks this season. First, he is coming off of a hip injury that ended his season early and staying on the field has been an issue for Carson. Additionally, Seattle has the toughest RB schedule of all, facing opponents who allowed an average of 22.42 fantasy PPG to RBs last year. Carson is going off the board again as an RB2 this season, which normally would make him feel like a steal, but this year it just feels like the risks are baked into his price. Paying an RB2 price for Carson is fair, given the upside and concerns he comes with.
Cam Akers fell into a great spot being drafted in the second round by the Rams to replace Todd Gurley. I originally was debating who to rank higher in redraft between Akers and Taylor, but the schedule puts that argument to bed. Taylor is definitely the one you should take first. Akers has the second-toughest schedule for RBs, facing opponents who allowed 22.46 fantasy PPG to RBs last year. This also takes some of the shine off of Darrell Henderson, who many still refuse to give up on.
The Dolphins backfield is going to be a fun one to discuss for fantasy football. First, you have Jordan Howard who has always been productive, but underappreciated in fantasy. Then you have Matt Breida, who stands out analytically, but has been far less productive in his NFL career than Howard due to numerous injuries. Both also have a tough schedule to add in. The Dolphins face the fourth-hardest schedule, going up against teams that allowed an average of 22.98 fantasy PPG. Both Breida and Howard belong in the RB3 range.
Le’Veon Bell should be used to things going wrong for him in a Jets uniform. I mean, yeah, he got paid, but then he got stuck with Adam Gase who admits he did not want Bell. He also went out and looked the worst we have ever seen him on a football field in his first season with the Jets. Then, the Jets went out and drafted La’Mical Perine in the draft and signed Frank Gore. Let’s remember, Gase had Gore in Miami in 2018 and gave him 168 touches to Kenyan Drake’s 173.
That gets even worse when you know that Gore played two less games. Not to say Gase is going to use Gore more than Bell but having him eating into the workload is a concern. Add in that the Jets have the fifth-hardest schedule for RBs heading into 2020 and it makes Bell a risky proposition. Sure, the Jets improved the o-line and hopefully with have a healthy QB, but Bell should still be valued as a mid-level RB2 due to the many concerns he comes with, on top of being an aging RB.
Other RBs with favorable schedules: D’Andre Swift, Derrick Henry, Leonard Fournette, David Johnson and Todd Gurley.
Other RBs with tough schedules: Saquon Barkley, Devin Singletary/Zack Moss, Clyde Edwards-Helaire/Damien Williams, Kenyan Drake, Ezekiel Elliott.
Fantasy Impact of WR Schedules
The Chicago Bears have the best WR schedule heading into the 2020 season. In total, their 2020 opponents allowed an average of 36.41 fantasy PPG to WR last season. That means big things for both Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller. First, ARob finished as the WR8 in PPR while seeing the third most targets (154) of all wide receivers. Additionally, Nick Foles is the best QB that Robinson has ever played with. But no matter which QB starts, both love throwing to the slot, doing so nearly 40 percent in each last full season. Robinson averaged 15 slot routes per game, to Miller’s 22. Plus, their biggest competition for targets is Tarik Cohen. Both of these guys get a boost from the schedule and should be targets of yours in fantasy drafts.
Davante Adams is my favorite to lead the league in targets. His biggest competition for targets is Devin Funchess or Allen Lazard. He is going to get plenty of opportunities, which only makes the schedule that much more appealing. The Packers have the second easiest WR schedule heading into 2020, as opponents allowed 36.22 fantasy PPG last season. He should be the WR2 off the board after Michael Thomas.
D.J. Moore is going off the board as a WR1 and the schedule only adds to that. The Panthers face the third easiest WR schedule this season, as the teams the face allowed an average of 35.31 fantasy PPG to WRs last year. Curtis Samuel and Robby Anderson have high ceilings each week, I just think they will struggle to be consistent week-to-week. That makes them better best ball plays.
The Cowboys have the fourth-best WR schedule, facing teams that allowed 35.28 fantasy PPG to WRs last season. There are suddenly a lot of mouths to feed here with Cooper, Gallup and Lamb, but the fact that new head coach Mike McCarthy has already said he indicates his offense having to put up points to make up for the defense and the favorable schedule, you can see why many are excited for this passing game. Even for fantasy purposes, I think people will devalue Gallup and Lamb too much. Last year, the Cowboys offense sported two top-24 WRs and three top-45 WRs. They will do even better this season.
The Falcons have the fifth-best WR schedule heading into 2020. They will face teams that allowed 35.13 fantasy PPG to WRs in 2019. That bodes extremely well for both Julio Jones and industry darling Calvin Ridley. Jones should continue to be valued as a top-five WR, while Ridley is an exciting WR2 with sky-high upside. Remember, there is no Mohamed Sanu or Austin Hooper here, so Ridley should see more work than ever.
I do not want you guys to think I am picking on the Dolphins or Jets. The two teams have the hardest schedules for WRs heading into the 2020 season, though. That means bad things for DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, Breshad Perriman, Jamison Crowder and Denzel Mims. A big reason they are the bottom two is because they have to face each the Pats and Bills twice. You may think that is not a big deal, but that means 25 percent of your WRs games could be lined up opposite of Stephon Gilmore or Tre White. That is scary and should force you to lower these receivers a bit in rankings.
The Texans receivers are already facing a few uphill battles. First, they have to fill the huge void left by DeAndre Hopkins. Second, Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller V need to be able to stay on the field. Third, there is also Randall Cobb and Kenny Stills who won’t be fantasy viable but will take away production at times from the others. It also doesn’t help that the Texans 2020 opponents allowed 32.58 fantasy PPG to WRs, the fourth-fewest in the NFL.
Both Cooks and Fuller possess sky high upside on a weekly basis, but them becoming complete headaches for your fantasy teams is very much so in the realm of possibilities. But that is baked into the price a bit, as they typically go off the board as a WR4. Due to that, if I am targeting one of these two, I like to draft both Cooks and Fuller around round nine or 10 and hope that one pans out. Fingers crossed they miss time at different points in the season!
Other teams with favorable WR schedules: Lions, Saints, Rams, Redskins, 49ers, Seahawks.
Other teams with tough WR schedules: Ravens, Raiders, Broncos, Titans, Bills, Chargers.
Fantasy Impact of TE Schedules
The rich get richer. George Kittle has the best TE schedule heading into 2020. He will face opponents that allowed 13.15 fantasy PPG to the position last season. That also includes two matchups against the Cardinals who allowed 19.05 fantasy PPG to TE last season. No other team allowed even 16 fantasy PPG. Kittle is already an early round pick and the second tight end off the board, but should we be reconsidering that?
Kittle becomes more appealing when you consider that Travis Kelce has the worst TE schedule heading into the 2020 season. The Chiefs will face teams that allowed 11.4 fantasy PPG to TEs in 2019. Kelce is not your average TE, so many teams can only hope to contain him, not really stop him. That includes two games against the Chargers, who have limited Kelce to nine fantasy PPG in their last six matchups, including holding him under 11 fantasy points in four of them. I am not saying to fade Kelce, but given the schedule, we should consider flip-flopping the top two tight ends. I know I am.
Remember how I said the Cardinals were really bad against tight ends? Well it is no surprise the second best TE schedule is another NFC West team. The Rams face opponents who allowed 13.03 fantasy PPG to TEs last season, including two games against the Cardinals. That bodes well for Tyler Higbee who had a historic finish after not even being on the fantasy radar in the first half of the season. The schedule should put your Higbee concerns to bed. He is a locked in Top 10 tight end heading into 2020.
Evan Engram only played half the season, but when he was out there he was plenty productive. In the eight games he played, he finished as the TE7 in terms of fantasy PPG, putting up 13.68 per game. The success should continue to pour in as the Giants face the fourth easiest TE schedule heading into 2020. He should be valued as a Top 10 tight end, who has the upside to finish top three if he stays healthy.
Austin Hooper will be suiting up with Baker Mayfield and those boys from Cleveland this season. He replaced his target competition in Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley with Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry. And now he has a QB that tends to throw to the tight end less than Matt Ryan has. Additionally, the Browns face the second toughest schedule for tight ends this season, facing teams that allowed 11.66 fantasy PPG to tight ends last season. Hooper is still a TE1, but if you are debating between Hooper and someone closely ranked, this should be the tie breaker.
Other TEs with favorable schedules: Ian Thomas, Kyle Rudolph/Irv Smith Jr., T.J. Hockenson, Mark Andrews, Zach Ertz.
Other TEs with tough schedules: Jonnu Smith, Noah Fant, Mike Gesicki, Jared Cook, Darren Waller.
Have any questions or comments? Make sure to hit me up on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio
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