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Brandon Murchison's 2020 NFL Draft predictions for the New England Patriots. His 32 for 32 series looks at fantasy football implications for redraft and dynasty.
It's the end of an era for the Patriots, as the team looks to move forward without Tom Brady. With their legend gone, how does this affect the fantasy value of those left on the roster? Will the NFL Draft also welcome in talent to further this team's potential? Let's find out in our latest edition of the NFL Draft 32 for 32 series.
The focus of this series is to dive into each NFL team's needs to project their draft picks in this year's draft, which will go on as planned in late April. I will predict the first three selections and give fantasy football owners perspective on how this affects fantasy value. Whether it be a positional player or players on the defensive side of the ball, all selections made can help in some way when it comes to fantasy scoring.
As we have seen in recent memory, some rookies can enter this league and make an immediate impact. Based on the appropriate landing spot, this year's crop of prospects has the potential to create some very fantasy-friendly situations. When you're done here, look back on our previous installments by checking the links at the bottom of this page.
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2019 Review
The 2019 New England Patriots were not the team that we have been accustomed to seeing. The defense was one of the best in fantasy and had to keep them in games because the offense struggled so mightly. Struggling with a subpar group of pass-catchers, Tom Brady finished just outside of QB1 territory (QB13). He was among the league leaders in attempts (613), but his passing yardage and scoring have dipped in each of the last three years. He was let down by his pass catchers last season, placing second in the league with 34 dropped passes. It's clear that this team is heading in a different direction and is the reason why Brady and the Patriots have decided to part ways.
The running game for the Patriots was simply poor in 2019. Sony Michel was drafted fairly high as an RB2 but failed to rush for 1,000 yards nor did he eclipse 100-yards in any game last season. His seven rushing scores helped to push his value up but he was only an asset in standard-scoring leagues. The changes that are expected to be coming for the Patriots offense could be a good thing for Michel's value moving forward. There could be a renewed push to improve the rushing attack, making Michel the focal point of the offense. He is likely to be drafted as an RB3 for 2020, but the scoring upside could have his ceiling as an RB2.
James White could see his fantasy value take a large hit with the departure of Brady. He was the constant check-down in this offense and a PPR darling (72 catches in 2019). It remains to be seen what his role will be with a new QB in town, but once again White should be considered a strong weekly play in PPR formats until further notice.
The aforementioned group of pass catchers for the Patriots was a one-man show. Julian Edelman finished as the WR7 on the strength of another 100-catch season. He was Brady's go-to guy in a pinch and is always willing to make the tough play. As his age gets up there, he is playing closer and closer to the line of scrimmage and is less likely to break the long play. All six of his receiving scores came from the red-zone, and five of them were targets inside the end-zone. He is a high-volume contributor and if that volume is affected, his fantasy value depreciates heavily. Outside of Edelman, rookie N'Keal Harry was hurt most of the year and disappointed once he returned. Jakobi Meyers and Mohamed Sanu had flashes in certain games but it was hard to pinpoint when to play them for fantasy owners.
We still do not know who the Patriots' QB will be for 2020, but Jarrett Stidham has the inside track on the job for now. The team could add a QB through the draft, but as it stands now, Stidham holds value as a low-end QB2 for fantasy as the Patriots offense once again should be a low-scoring team. The draft could answer many questions for this team and the direction of the team. Will they add a QB to compete? Will another WR be a priority for a team in dire need of a playmaker? Odds are they that they will do what they typically do. Patriots will likely focus on strengthening the interior of the offensive and defensive lines while looking for potential playmakers on defense.
New England Patriots - 2020 Outlook
TEAM GRADES
Offense: 74.2 (17th)
Defense: 86.1 (3rd)
Overall: 88.8 (7th)
TEAM NEEDS
EDGE, OL, WR
First Selection (1.23)
A.J. Epenesa, DE Iowa
Epenesa has the size to draw scout's eyes but the production at Iowa is what seals the deal for evaluators. He uses his strength and power successfully to allow him to get to the QB with ease. He does have average instincts against the run and can be slow to shed blocks, getting him behind on plays. This could limit his exposure on the field on early downs during the early stages of his career.
But the name of his game is pass-rushing skills. His diverse moves, skilled hands, and unique bull-rushing skills should easily translate to the pro level. Being selected to a Patriots Defense that has been losing pass rushers to free agency, Epenesa should step right in and fill the void. He could also become a sleeper DE in IDP formats as early as his rookie year.
Second Selection (3.23)
Logan Stenberg, OG Kentucky
Sternberg lacks the overwhelming physical skillset that you like to see from an interior lineman. But he is a smart, blue-collar prospect that understands his assignments on each play and does well enough to get the job done. He is very sound in early phases on a block, will hold his man but lacks the strength to finish the job.
He has adequate athleticism to battle edge-to-edge rushers in pass protection and can hold his own. His feisty and scrappy mentality should fit in well with the Patriots offensive line. He may not get the chance to start right away but could develop into a solid lineman as the team goes in a new direction.
Third Selection (3.34)
Matt Hennessy, C Temple
Hennessy is a three-year college starter that uses solid hand placement, leverage, and athletic ability in his playstyle. He lacks the mass and length that most coaches desire, but his sound technique more than makes up for it. He is a very patient blocker that can lock in and set up blocks well. His lateral quickness and body control allow him to reach, pull, and stay connected with blocks on the move.
He can miss blocking with linebackers with issues in timing, but that will be coachable. Coaching staffs will see the below-average physical traits and shy away, but the right scheme will allow him to utilize his best traits. He could come in and compete right away for the Patriots and may even win the starting gig as early as his rookie year.
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