RADIO
Brandon Murchison's 2020 NFL Draft predictions for the Houston Texans. His 32 for 32 series looks at fantasy football implications for redraft and dynasty.
Struggling behind a horrid offensive line, Deshaun Watson still managed to keep Texans offense afloat in 2019. But with the loss of DeAndre Hopkins, will Watson and company still maintain top-end fantasy value? Will the NFL Draft also welcome in talent to further this team's potential? Let's find out in our latest edition of the NFL Draft 32 for 32 series.
The focus of this series is to dive into each NFL team's needs to project their draft picks in this year's draft, which will go on as planned in late April. I will predict the first three selections and give fantasy football owners perspective on how this affects fantasy value. Whether it be a positional player or players on the defensive side of the ball, all selections made can help in some way when it comes to fantasy scoring.
As we have seen in recent memory, some rookies can enter this league and make an immediate impact. Based on the appropriate landing spot, this year's crop of prospects has the potential to create some very fantasy-friendly situations. When you're done here, look back on our previous installments by checking the links at the bottom of this page.
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2019 Review
Deshaun Watson capped off the 2019 season by finishing as the QB5 in fantasy, but his week-to-week consistency was a headache for many fantasy owners. He had seven weeks in which he was graded as one of the top 10 at the position, but he also had four weeks outside the top 24. With the production up and down, Watson used his legs to increase his scoring. He was fourth in rushing yardage at QB (413) but tied for second in scoring (seven TD). You can blame it on poor offensive line play, but Watson has bouts with poor decision making that leads to issues with ball security and taking too many sacks.
Now, he loses his security blanket with the trade of DeAndre Hopkins. Sure, the team brought in Brandin Cooks to fill the void, but the loss of Hopkins will affect the production of Watson in 2020. He is a QB that should be taken inside the top five at the position, but with the changes happening around him, don't be shocked to see him not live up to the ADP.
Carlos Hyde had a solid year for the Texans coming in via trade after the injury to Lamar Miller in the preseason. He handled nearly all the rushing duties (243 carries) on his way to a 1,000-yard season and a finish as RB28 in fantasy. Underutilized Duke Johnson handled a majority of the work as the Texans passing-down specialist. He was third on the team in targets (62) and although he only caught 44 passes, Johnson still finished as a Top 30 back in PPR formats. The team should find more ways to incorporate him into the offense, but it's obvious they see him as a one-dimensional player.
Exiting is Hyde, but entering is former fantasy great David Johnson. Johnson looked like a shell of his former self in 2019. He was irrelevant as a rusher last season (345 yards), and although he was used effectively as a pass-catcher (36 receptions), once the team brought in Kenyan Drake, Johnson's days were numbered. The question for fantasy owners will be which David Johnson we will see in 2020. Will it be a motivated player out to prove the naysayers wrong? Or will it be a verification that Johnson's time in the NFL is over with? Look for him to be drafted as a potential RB2 based on the expected workload. But the smart owner will also grab Duke Johnson as insurance and as a player that can be used in plus matchups in PPR formats.
It was another solid year for Hopkins as he finished at WR5 in fantasy even with what could be considered a down year statistically (104 receptions for 1,165 yards and seven TDs). But as previously mentioned, all that production now resides in Arizona. What is left is oft-injured Will Fuller, who had most of his production in 2019 in one game (14-217-3) and just two total games considered as "start-worthy" for fantasy owners. Kenny Stills, also, was inconsistent with production as the receivers behind Hopkins tend to find it hard to make a foothold in this offense and are tough to rely on.
Newcomers Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb bring question marks themselves to this receiving group. If he can remain healthy, Cooks should give owners the most consistent value in fantasy in 2020, but living up to Hopkins is a stretch. Cooks may be drafted as a WR3 but as WR2 potential in this offense. Fuller is the ultimate wildcard, that if he is on the field, he produces well and could settle in as a strong Flex play most weeks. Cobb could be worth a look late in drafts, but he and Stills (if he makes the team), could find themselves on the waiver wire off and on all season.
Heading into the draft, the Texans will be in a position where defense is the focal point. They have needs at every level in this unit and could use several upgrades. Unfortunately, with the way that HC Bill O'Brien has been wheeling and dealing, the Texans find themselves outside the first round and with a limited amount of early picks (three in the 7th Round). It will be vital that this team hits on the picks that they make or it could be a struggle on the defensive side of the ball yet again in 2020.
Houston Texans - 2020 Outlook
TEAM GRADES
Offense: 76.3 (12th)
Defense: 63.2 (24th)
Overall: 77.1 (20th)
TEAM NEEDS
CB, LB, DT
First Selection (2.08)
Michael Pittman, WR USC
With Hopkins gone, the Texans find a receiver that fits a different mold than the offense in this offense. Pittman is coming off a highly-productive 2019, where he hauled in 101 catches and 11 TD. He is a big, smart, and reliable receiver that can be more of the possession type that the team just lost. He has top-notch ball skills and can bully cornerbacks down the field and get the best of them. His speed score (111.2) puts him in the 93rd percentile and does away with the idea that he is a lumbering receiver on the field.
If he can improve his release quickness against press coverage, Pittman may be tough to stop at the next level. His demeanor and strong work ethic make him an ideal WR2 early in his career but could blossom into a team's go-to target. He gives Watson the bigger target that the team currently lacks and will be a great second-round pick in dynasty formats. As for 2020, the logjam on this team will hurt him from a target standpoint so the production will be very inconsistent.
Second Selection (3.26)
Darrell Taylor, EDGE Tennessee
Taylor gives Houston another legitimate threat as an edge rusher opposite J.J. Watt. He should fit in well with the 3-4 alignment and has the traits that defensive coaches covet. He has the strength and leverage that allows him to anchor at the point of attack and stand his ground.
But he must improve on shedding blockers to be able to make more plays. He can lack instincts on his rushing ability but the explosion around the edge is what can give some tackles fits. He has a lot to work with from a skillset standpoint, but to meet his ceiling he will need some fine-tuning at the next level.
Third Selection (4.05)
K'Von Wallace, S Clemson
Wallace brings added flexibility to the Texans secondary. He can play from the safety position, a bigger nickel corner, or be a player that will break loose as a downhill blitzer. He plays an intense and aggressive brand of football that comes with both pros and cons. His demeanor puts him on the mindset of unloading hit after hit when given the chance. But it will also cause him to miss plays on occasion.
He may struggle a bit in coverage at the next level as he lacks range due to his size. But playing for a Texans Defense that ranked in the bottom third against the run, Wallace's skillset may come in handy for this team. I expect to see his initial impact as a rookie come as a special-teamer while he progresses to the NFL level.
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