2020 Keeper Value Rankings - Shortstop

February 26, 2020

Keeper values and tiered rankings for dynasty baseball leagues. JB reveals his keeper rankings at the shortstop position for 2020 fantasy baseball and explains his methodology.

If you're keeping up with the Keeper Value Rankings, you know we've already covered First Base, Second Base, and Third Base. Today, we will address Shortstop. These rankings are intended for Keeper Leagues in which a fantasy owner must forfeit a designated draft pick in order to keep a player into the upcoming season. These rankings are based on Keeper "Values". In the marketing world, Value can be defined as the extent to which a good or service (player) is perceived by its customer (fantasy owner) to meet his/her needs or wants. The Keeper Values are derived from my Keeper Valuation Formula which accounts for age, player cost (ADP), remaining player pool, past performance, future projections, missed playing time, and even position scarcity.

The product is a quantitative depiction of a player's ability to meet/exceed fantasy owners' needs based on the cost they paid for the player in the previous season (2019 ADP) and will subsequently pay for in the current season's draft (2020). The higher the score, the higher the return the fantasy owner will receive from the player keeping him at their associated cost. Approaching Keeper selections with this "value" based attitude will greatly increase the effectiveness of a fantasy owner's draft in a Keeper League.

Whereas the main purpose of the Keeper Value Formula is for customization based on specific leagues and keeper costs, I create these yearly rankings with standard 12-team league data, 2019 ADP, and 23rd Round cost for UDFA just as a baseline to help managers get an idea of their options. Now, let's jump into the rankings.

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JB's Keeper Value System

Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @RowdyRotoJB to check out your specific league's values.

2020 Keeper Value Rankings - Shortstop

Tier One

Just 21 years old and 22 HR/16 SB in nearly half a season. 2019 previewed some tantalizing stuff for Fernando Tatis Jr. Sure, the 30% strikeout rate and the .410 BABIP should make you a little uneasy, but one does not simply stumble their way to a 22/16 stat line in half a season. The HR pace will certainly not be sustained, as his 31.9 HR/FB% was practically double his rate in the minors, but the kid can certainly smash. He owned a 41.9 Hard% and an identical 41.9 Pull%, how fun is that? Those are not quite Pete Alonso levels, but they are close and certainly impressive for a 21-year-old shortstop.

Even with the expected regression, we are still talking about a realistic 30/25 ceiling as soon as this season. If you were savvy enough to draft Tatis or stash him last year after he was shut down, now is the time to reap those benefits as you have a first-round talent under cheap control for years to come.

Tier Two

In 2016, Ketel Marte played 119 games for the Mariners. Along with that came just 466 plate appearances for the switch hitter that season and only one HR. Uno. Fast forward to 2019 and he smacks 32 long balls and hits .329. It absolutely came out of nowhere, hence his 21st round ADP, and of course it appears to be one big outlier fluke. But like Tatis, Ketel crushed the ball all year - and absolutely murdered southpaws. A career-high FB%, Pull%, and Hard% is going to result in a massive spike in HR, it HAS to.

Obviously, something changed for Marte and his approach, so who's to say that in a couple of years, 2016-2018 won't be considered the outliers? His HR/FB% was only 19%. Sure, it was a nine-point increase from the previous season, but 19%? That's Tommy Pham and DJ LeMahieu territory. 19% is completely reasonable for a switch hitter playing at Chase Field with a Pull% and Hard% both over 42%. Obviously I believe in Ketel Marte's 2019 performance and it appears the formula does too, spitting out Tier Two scores at both Shortstop and Second Base.

Tier Three

We've reached the meat and potatoes of the shortstop position now. Seven studs, all of whom I would love to roster in 2020. The power, speed, and batting average finally all came together in the same season for Marcus Semien last year, and it was beautiful. It does my heart good to see a career-high Contact% coupled with a career-low O-Swing% and SwStr%. I will believe in literally any stats from a season if they are coupled with those plate discipline improvements.

There's not much left to say about Trevor Story. I was drafting him as a first-rounder last year and will continue to do so this year. If you were lucky enough to get him in the second round or later last year, or still have control over him in your keeper league, enjoy the .290/35/25 fireworks on the cheap.

Now let's talked possibly the most hyped shortstop in the fantasy industry for 2020. Fernando Tatis is not the only prodigal son here. Bo Bichette had a much smaller taste of the big leagues last year, but he showed some of that same intoxicating power/speed ability. Between the MLB and AAA in 2019, Bichette hit 19 HR with 19 SB in barely over 100 games. The projection systems are suggesting a 20/20 follow-up campaign in 2020, but the ceiling on the stolen bases is really much higher. Bichette is slated to lead off for the uber-talented youth movement in Toronto and will be a fantasy juggernaut at the shortstop position for years to come.

Tier Four

The first two names that jump off the page to me in the fourth tier are the pair of fourth-round ADP fantasy stars. Xander Bogaerts is just easy money in fantasy. He has become an anchor of production in the Red Sox lineup, one who will be leaned on even more in 2020 with the departure of Mookie Betts. Only five hitters in 2019 hit at least 30 HR with 100 R, 100 RBI, and a .300 BA. The Red Sox had two, and, of course, X-Man was one. I would bank on another 100 R + 100 RBI season hitting between Rafael Devers and J.D. Martinez, which was only elsewhere found with Alex Bregman among shortstops. I don't really doubt the power increase we saw either, as his HR/FB% was just one point higher than in 2018. The secret was a career-high Hard% and a four percent increase in fly-balls.

The other fourth-round keeper who catches my eye in tier four is Adalberto Mondesi. Bottom line: 40+ SB potential is so valuable. He hit that mark in just 102 games in 2019, so technically we should be talking 50+ as a ceiling. I am a little worried about what the off-season shoulder surgery does to his power numbers, especially early in the year but again, the SB boost gives you so much flexibility in the draft as cheap power is easy to find.

Gavin Lux and Jorge Polanco as keepers in the late rounds are no-brainers, and Francisco Lindor literally anywhere is a good decision. But let's talk about the 2019 MLB Batting Champion.

Initially, you would think a 12th-round keeper cost for the defending batting champ would be a much higher keeper score, but that does not appear to be the case here with Tim Anderson. Let's look at his numbers for the past three seasons: Home runs-17, 20, 18, Stolen Bases-15, 26, 17. It seems like that's a pretty good grouping to forecast 2020 numbers. Now for the batting averages: .257, .240, .335. Yahtzee! Yes, he slightly increased his Line Drive percentages, and he set new career highs in center and opposite field percentages. Those are certainly ways to increase your BA. But then you look at his plate discipline, and HE HAD THE HIGHEST O-SWING% IN THE LEAGUE. He ranked 124th in Hard%, 77th in Contact%, and is swinging at pitches outside the zone at nearly a 50% clip. That does not translate to a .399 BABIP but once in a century. Bottom line, I don't see him coming anywhere close to replicating that stellar BA in 2020. The good news, however, is 20/20 is a lock and the White Sox lineup is looking very promising for higher-than-average run production.

Tier Five

Is it just me or is Kevin Newman grossly underrated? In his first full season in the MLB, the former first-round pick hit 12 HR, stole 16 bases, and hit .308. ATC projections forecast some regression in the power but the .280/9/16 will still certainly play.

ATC projects Jean Segura for .288/13/13 and Segura's ADP is 192, while Newman's ADP is 218. I understand Segura plays for the Phillies and Newman plays for Pittsburgh, but there is no way I am taking Segura before Newman.

The first reason is Newman's SB projections are too light. He will steal more than 20 bases in 2020. He stole 28 in the minors in 2018 and manager Derek Shelton has stated this off-season that the Pirates will be "an aggressive team on the basepaths" this season. The second reason is position eligibility. Give me that 2B/SS flexibility all day. The third and final reason is batting order, even on the Pirates. Jean Segura has no shot at hitting near the top of the Phillies lineup. Newman, on the other hand, realistically could be the Opening Day lead-off hitter for the Pirates if Shelton decides to move Reynolds down in front of Josh Bell. I don't care about the rest of the team, if Newman ends up hitting in front of Bryan Reynolds and Josh Bell and is stealing 20+ bases, I will gladly take a chance on that well before his 218 ADP.

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