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Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Joe Musgrove is a fantasy baseball sleeper and undervalued draft target for the 2020 season. Dan Palyo takes a deeper dive into Musgrove's upside and what makes him a fantasy draft sleeper at SP.
While the fate of the MLB season hangs in the balance due to the coronavirus pandemic, I still think we see baseball played this summer at some point. When baseball does return, we are going to gobble up every second of it and relish the opportunity to see our favorite players and teams in action. In the meanwhile, fantasy owners should do their best to prepare for that day.
In order to have full transparency here, I have to admit that I am a long-suffering Pittsburgh Pirates fan. Does that mean that I might be a bit biased about Joe Musgrove's potential? Perhaps, but it also means that I've watched this guy pitch a lot more than most baseball fans, too.
That's one thing about being a Pirates fan -- even when they trend near the bottom of the standings (which has been the vast majority of my lifetime), we can't help but tune in to watch our Buccos and root for some blue-collar types like Musgrove to carry a bunch of youngsters and role players to some semblance of mediocrity. Being a Pirates fan is a tough task, but we wouldn't have it any other way.
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The Case for Musgrove
Musgrove was a bulldog for the Bucs last season, making 31 starts and compiling 170 1/3 innings pitched in his first full season as a starter. He came over from Houston in the Gerrit Cole trade and has proven to be the best asset that Pittsburgh acquired in that deal (Colin Moran has largely been average).
Musgrove struck out nearly a batter per inning last season while keeping his walk rate low. His ERA was over four, but his FIP was 3.82, suggesting that he pitched a tad better than his ERA suggests.
Musgrove is a guy who can throw five quality pitches -- all of them for strikes. He only throws his low-90's four-seam fastball 37.6% of the time and mixes in a cutter, changeup, curveball, and slider, with the slider being his favorite secondary pitch.
His first-pitch strike percentage was excellent once again last season and he is the type of pitcher who needs to work from ahead in the count as he relies on mixing his pitches and locations a lot more since he is not overpowering anyone.
As you can see in the graph below, he not only throws strikes early and often in the count, but he also has the ability to induce swings at pitches outside the strike zone as his O-Swing percentage has been in the 35-36% range over the last two seasons.
2020 Outlook
Musgrove was a 3.3 fWAR player last season and is the kind of pitcher who often gets overlooked in fantasy leagues. He is going to be at the top of the rotation for a team expected to be subpar, which hurts his win equity, but he's shown the ability to strike out hitters now for the better part of two seasons and will start half of his games in the pitcher-friendly PNC Park. He's a crafty pitcher who has the ability to get strikeouts and can limit damage even when he doesn't have his best stuff and he's allowing baserunners.
Musgrove isn't a superstar in the making, but he's shown over the last two years that he has above-average stuff and excellent command -- he's a pitcher and not just a thrower. He finished last season strong in the second half and was sharp in limited Spring Training action, leaving me to believe that he is poised for a strong 2020 campaign.
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