2019 Starting Pitcher - Early Fantasy Baseball Tiered Rankings

We continue our fantasy baseball tiered rankings analysis with the second base position. The sun is still rising on 2019, but RotoBaller writers JB Branson, Pierre Camus, Chris Zolli and myself are here with our initial pre-draft rankings to give you a sense of player values as early as possible. As the offseason progresses, these rankings are sure to change quite a bit over the coming weeks. We'll be updating our rankings regularly, so be sure to keep checking in on our fantasy baseball rankings dashboard for the most updated lists.

First, you'll find a table with our ranks of over 200 arms, followed by tier-by-tier analysis from yours truly. Starting pitching runs deep, but you’ll need one or two aces to anchor your staff in this era of fewer arms hitting 200 innings and qualifying for wins, let alone quality starts. Buckle up, there’s a lot to discuss -- you’ll find over 3,000 words of analysis here.

In case you missed it, you can also read about our shortstop, second base, first base and catcher ranks. Without any more delay, let's take a peek at the 2019 starting pitcher rankings for January.

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2019 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Starting Pitcher (January)

Rankings Analysis - Top Tiers

Tier One

I won’t waste your time splitting hairs at the top. You’re not questioning any of these arms leading your rotation. Corey Kluber will rise in my rankings as Opening Day nears and the possibility of his being traded wanes. I’d love him no matter where he went, but being on Cleveland and looking down at a rebuilding AL Central makes 20 wins a real possibility. Caesars recently released their 2019 MLB season win totals for prop bettors and Cleveland’s 91.5 mark makes them one of five teams checking in above 90. The Astros (97.5), Red Sox (95.5), Dodgers (95) and Yankees (94.5) being the others.

Tier Two

Aaron Nola breaking out in 2018 deserves extra props because he not only beat opponents, but he beat his own terrible defense. The same defense that hamstrung Philadelphia’s other young arms (that we’ll get to), so I’m a big Nola believer in ‘19 now that Jean Segura is at short and Rhys Hoskins is back at first and out of the outfield.

We must continue to respect what a healthy Clayton Kershaw can do, but he hasn’t topped 175 innings since 2015 and that’s baked into his draft stock. We’ll also need to see him regain the whiffs, as the 23.9% strikeout rate was the lowest he’s posted since his 2008 rookie campaign. From 2014-17, Kershaw put up swinging-strike rates north of 14%, but that fell to 11% in ‘18. The southpaw will be 31 and has to show he still belongs at the top of pitching boards -- I doubt I’ll have any shares in ‘19.

As you can see, I’m the high man on both Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander, as well as Carlos Carrasco and I’m second on Trevor Bauer. Targeting Houston’s spin-rate happy rotation is wise, as both Verlander and Cole were inside the top-five in K-BB rate. Verlander’s 30.4% made him the only starter with more than 50 innings to top 30% aside from Chris Sale (32.9%), while Cole checked into fifth place with 26.5%. Mix in that Houston wins a ton of ballgames and you’ve got a recipe for 5x5 fantasy glory here.

We talked about Cleveland’s envious position in their division and Bauer’s insanely-deep arsenal finally clicked in ‘18, but Carrasco continues to be overlooked despite turning in a career-best 231 strikeouts and 24% K-BB rate that yielded a 2.94 FIP, 2.90 xFIP and 3.03 SIERA -- his best peripherals since his 2015 breakout. You should be happy with him as your ace and thrilled if he’s your SP2.

Tier Three

While some folks will happily pay the October tax for Walker Buehler, but he’s being aggressively drafted -- too aggressive for me. His NFBC ADP sits at 38.58, making him the No. 12 SP, slightly ahead of Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard. A veteran like Zack Greinke is going 20-25 picks later and likely represents greater value. Count me as a believer in Bronx Big Maple, whose 25.7% K-BB rate was sixth on that list, though I’d be hopeful that he learns to attack up in the zone more to mitigate the 41.1% fly-ball rate and 1.29 HR/9, which could sting in Yankee Stadium. But you can count me out on Stephen Strasburg -- he's reached 175 innings once in the last four seasons and I'm concerned about his mechanics holding up at this point.

Rankings Analysis - Middle Tiers

Tier Four

The fourth tier is a gorgeous one, housing 11 pitchers with 10 of them in my personal top 100 and eight of them in the composite top 100. It also brings up arms that have some wide ranges between us, as Patrick Corbin, Madison Bumgarner, Masahiro Tanaka and Zack Wheeler have min-max spreads near 60.

Let’s once again go to the K-BB% well with Corbin, whose 24.8% mark was seventh in the MLB (again, out of SP’s with >50 IP) with a 2.61 xFIP, which was third only to Chris Sale and Jacob deGrom. He now heads to the NL East in a Nationals uniform, meaning he’ll see less of Coors Field and more of the Marlins, so I have a hard time downgrading him.

I’m the clear outlier with Bumgarner, as he was showing warning signs heading into 2018 and subsequently crashed underneath the hood. His 3.26 ERA/1.24 WHIP offer encouragement, but his 4.32 xFIP and 4.42 SIERA highlight an ugly 19.8% strikeout rate -- his lowest mark since his rookie year in 2010 -- and his fantasy value only goes further south when you consider the rebuilding Giants have notched him 10 wins in his last two years (240 ⅔ IP). His 44.5% hard-hit rate in the second half was only “beaten” by Dan Straily (50.3%, yikes), which is terrifying for an arm who isn’t balancing hard contact with big whiffs. No thanks.

Tanaka falls on the other side of the wins equation with his pinstripes. He still offers roughly a strikeout per inning and that 14.1% swinging-strike rate underscores his dastardly splitter, while the lowly 5.5% walk rate shows that he still has stupendous control (which helped anchor the 1.13 WHIP). The Yankees signing of DJ LeMahieu should improve the defense behind him as he looks to conquer the longball.

Wheeler’s season-long line is strong on its own, with his 3.31 ERA/1.12 WHIP and 24.1% strikeout rate (179 in 182 ⅓ IP), but those who rostered him know that belittles his insane second half. Before being shut down due to an innings limit in mid-September, Wheeler posted an incredible 1.68 ERA with a 73:15 K:BB ratio and a cold .174/.237/.253 triple slash allowed in 75 frames. He started attacking the zone more and batters simply failed in response, earning the .229 BABIP with a 21.1% hard-hit rate that trailed only Syndergaard (20.8%) as his pop-up rate soared to 16.7% (fifth-best by an SP in the second half).

Tier Five

It’s clear that JB, Chris and I are in relative agreement on Robbie Ray, while Pierre is going to score his services on all of his teams. The 165 strikeouts in 123 ⅔ innings showed the swing-and-miss stuff is still extremely present, but the control woes manifested and then some in a 13.3% walk rate that paced all starters (>100 IP). To orient you, Francisco Liriano’s 12.5% was second. I respect those who believe in his finding the zone again, but I won’t bank on it. I’d prefer drafting Yu Darvish and hoping for good health rather than Ray manufacturing control.

I believe that the writer in rotation on these positions should address where they’re an outlier, so let’s talk about J.A. Happ. While his 3.65 ERA was his highest mark since ‘14, his 3.64 SIERA was the lowest of his career alongside a career-high 26.3% strikeout rate. He’s on a team that just won 100 games and has an elite bullpen, all of which make me bullish on Happ.

On the flipside is Charlie Morton, who leaves Houston having enhanced his fastball and embracing his curveball (especially using it to mitigate lefties) to become an alleged traditional starter for Tampa Bay. The Rays have tons of pitchers and no allegiance to an SP needing to go six innings, which hamstrings Morton’s potential wins but also could help keep him healthy. He’s dealt with injuries to his oblique, shoulder, hip, elbow and hamstring. Morton is young in terms of fantasy relevance, but you must remember that he’s 35 years old and the risk is real.

Tier Six

Let’s once again turn to the K-BB% leaderboard to explain why I have Ross Stripling the highest among this term and certainly among our staff. Stripling’s 23.5% was ninth, nestled between Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer. The other 14 names within the top 15 in K-BB% are all being drafted inside the top-60 picks per NFBC ADP, whereas Stripling’s ADP is 215.84! His .324 BABIP was the highest among those 15 and the 2.86 xFIP sits in fourth place, so don’t tell me he just got lucky. I’m not asking you buy into him as a top-15 pitcher, but it’s silly to me that someone could flash those skills while pitching for a strong team in LA and be ignored.

Where one arm is raised, another falls. I promise I’m not just a sabermetrics slave, but Sean Newcomb does not strike me as a reliable pitcher. He enters his third big-league season having put up walk rates of 12.5% and 11.6%, but saw his swinging-strike rate fall to 10% from 11.1% as he struck out fewer than a batter per inning (160 in 164 IP). You simply cannot walk that many batters without generating a ton of outs that don’t go into play and potentially advance a runner (a la Robbie Ray) and expect to succeed. It’s not like he was losing batters that he’d gotten ahead of either, as his 54% first-strike rate was only “worsted” by Gio Gonzalez’s 53.8%.

Tier Seven

Everyone else is putting Alex Wood in/near their top 200, but I’m worried about his performance, durability and the new home. In order, his 3.72 xFIP and 3.90 SIERA were good-not-great as his swinging-strike rate lost a percentage point and his hard-hit rate jumped by over 10 percentage points. He only pitched 151 ⅔ innings in ‘18 and has averaged 121 innings over his last three seasons. Finally, Dodger Stadium was ranked 26th per ESPN Park Factors for offenses, whereas Great American Ball Park was tied for fourth.

I also feel that Jake Arrieta is getting by on some name brand, but he was fortunate to be decent in ‘17 and declined further in ‘18. While he regained a groundball rate north of 50%, his swinging-strike rate that once sat between 10.4-11.1% in 2014-16 fell to 7.8% in ‘18 after slipping to 8.7% in ‘17. He somehow posted an 8.71 K/9 and 23.1% strikeout rate in ‘17, but that plummeted to 7.19 and 19.1% last season while his 3.96 ERA held a 4.26 FIP, 4.08 xFIP and 4.29 SIERA. You can blame some of the surface on Philly’s defense, but the sabers and lack of whiffs are on him.

Rankings Analysis - Lower Tiers

Tier Eight

I see some sleeper articles propped up Trevor Williams thanks to his 3.11 ERA/1.18 WHIP 2018 season that ended with a 1.38 ERA through the second half. Even during that insane time, his 12.3% K-BB rate was just okay and a 90.8% strand rate (built on a low 0.38 HR/9 rate) hid a 4.19 xFIP. With no real strikeout upside to speak of and still needing to conquer lefties -- he only posted a 4.89 K/9 with a 4.40 FIP/5.16 xFIP against them -- I can think of better late-round fliers to take.

I need to examine Milwaukee’s pitchers more heading into 2019, but I’m fairly sure I’ve got Chase Anderson too high. I will say his 86.2 MPH average exit velocity ranked 23rd out of 169 pitchers with 250 batted-ball results in ‘18 and helps explain the lowly .239 BABIP, but a meager 9.2% whiff rate and the 1.71 HR/9 mark are to be feared. As for Freddy Peralta, his thrilling starts and 96 strikeouts in 78 ⅓ IP make for intrigue, but a 12.5% walk rate that’s backed up by a track record of poor control in the Minors means he needs to earn my trust.

Tier Nine

Only two pitchers are inside anyone’s top 200 in this tier, and they’re both Pierre’s. Mr. Camus has Marcus Stroman at 178 and Luke Weaver at 155. Stroman battled through finger issues and tons of bad luck to post a 5.54 ERA/1.48 WHIP despite a 3.91 FIP/3.84 xFIP/4.04 SIERA. Still, walks were up and whiffs were down, though he still posted a groundball rate above 60% -- his fourth straight season surpassing that mark. That said, he hasn’t posted a WHIP below 1.29 or a strikeout rate above 20% in three seasons, so count me out.

My bearishness on Weaver comes from the horrid 2018 with sabers around 4.50 and the 4.95 ERA with a K-BB% that nearly halved itself, from 21.8% in ‘17 to 11% in ‘18. Pierre must believe in the 2017 Weaver that looked so promising for St. Louis, and I’ll admit that the suddenly pitcher-friendly Chase Park is enticing, but I don’t see it under the hood. Even when he posted beautiful strikeout rates around 27-28% in ‘16 and ‘17, his swinging-strike rate never cracked 10%. The rule of thumb is to double SwStr% to get a ballpark K rate, meaning 2018’s 19.9% mark was close to expectations.

The Oakland A’s don’t have many pitchers locked into place for 2019, with Sean Manaea and Jharel Cotton battling back from injuries, but if Jesus Lazardo makes a start then you need him on your squad. At 20 years old, Luzardo quickly went from High-A to Double-A and finished ‘18 at Triple-A with a picturesque 2.88 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 129-to-30 K:BB ratio in 109 ⅓ IP thanks to his fastball-curve-changeup arsenal. To be fair, he gave up 13 runs in his 16 Triple-A frames, but age-20 in the PCL with a silly .469 BABIP makes for easy forgiveness. If he carries over his 14% whiff rate from the Minors to O.co then he may just set our world on fire.

Tier 10

This tier has a clear standout for me, as Houston will reportedly shift Collin McHugh back into their rotation after a successful bullpen showing in ‘18. We’ve learned that the Astros are capable of essentially giving its pitcher a super-soldier serum and it isn’t like we didn’t see McHugh dominate already. Operating out of the bullpen, McHugh posted a 1.99 ERA (2.62 SIERA) and 0.91 WHIP with 94 K’s in 72 ⅓ IP. Plus, he was a solid starter in 2014, 2015 and 2017, so I don’t see the trepidation here.

If you can’t get McHugh, then how about Anibal Sanchez? You know, the pitcher whose 29.8% soft-contact rate in the second half paced all starters with at least 50 innings on the books. The guy who just signed a two-year deal with the Nationals, who stand as one of the only teams trying to get better for 2019 in a division where every other team had a wRC+ value below 98, including the Marlins second-worst 83 wRC+. Yeah, that Anibal Sanchez.

Tier 11

This tier brings on plenty of reclamation projects and immeasurable hope. Can Danny Salazar stay healthy and regain his elite strikeout potential? Will Taijuan Walker and Jordan Montgomery recover well enough from their TJ surgeries to deliver late in 2019? Do the Yankees find a suitable trade offer for Sonny Gray and get him out of the Bronx? How will the Angels manage Trevor Cahill’s workload in an effort to keep his pre-injury form on the bump?

If you haven’t figured out by now, I’m a big fan of pitchers that are supported by teams who win a lot of games and have above-average bullpens. It only helps when their average exit velocity allowed is near the bottom of the charts, such as CC Sabathia’s. His 25.1% soft-contact rate was fifth out of SPs with >100 IPs. The others were Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Anibal. Retirement may be coming soon for Carsten Charles, but that day is not today.

Another name to (currently) be interested in is Framber Valdez, who is slated to open the season in Houston’s rotation unless they sign another starter. I don’t think they want Valdez in their Opening Day rotation, if we’re being honest, but this is the hand we’re dealing with right now. Valdez entered pro ball at 21 years old in 2015 and heads into his age-25 campaign having posted a 2.19 ERA/1.24 WHIP with 34 K’s in his first 37 big-league innings. While the sabermetrics don’t buy in (4.50 SIERA), he struck out 120 in 94 ⅓ IP at Double-A to kick off ‘18 with a 2.53 xFIP underneath a 4.10 ERA. If any team can unlock raw talent and strikeout potential, it’s Houston. You don’t let anyone in that rotation go undrafted, that’s just unwise.

Tiers 12, 13 and 14

In case you couldn’t tell, Tier 12 boils down to a pair of exciting Marlins for myself and JB. Trevor Richards and Caleb Smith are worth speculation. Richards ended his rookie season with two scoreless quality starts to cap off a 13-outing run with 77 punchouts and a 3.75 ERA in 69 ⅔ IP (despite an ugly 1 ⅓ IP, 6 ER day). Meanwhile, Smith caused a stir by striking out 69 in 56 pre-injury innings with a 3.51 ERA/1.15 WHIP for Miami, but a serious lat injury required surgery in June and ended his season. His fastball and slider are both above-average and worth eyeing.

I’ll note that Derek Holland is the lowest overall ranked pitcher that one of us has in our top-300, as I loved what he did once adjusting to the first-base side of the rubber in 2018. Of course, giving up spacious AT&T Park is a drawback and where he lands will affect his stock. After a June 15 loss to the Dodgers, Holland had a 4.48 ERA/4.61 FIP/4.71 xFIP with a 20.9% strikeout rate (8.8% SwStr). He then moved on the rubber before a June 20 victory over the Marlins sparked a 2.91 ERA/3.33 FIP/3.60 xFIP with a 24.9% strikeout rate (11.2% SwStr). His first-strike rate rose by four percentage points, his O-Swing by nine while his Z-Swing sunk by six. If he keeps some of those gains then I’ll be very interested in ‘19.

Pierre would like to draw your attention to Jacob Faria, while I don’t want any piece of him. The nearly 400-pick split might be the widest we’ve got here. The six-foot-four righty boasts a stellar changeup and entered 2018 having posted a 3.43 ERA/1.18 WHIP across 86 ⅔ IP as a rookie, but sophomore stumbled with a 5.40 ERA/1.43 WHIP in 65 frames. A nasty oblique injury ate up two months and he returned as a swingman “opener”, tossing three innings or so at a time. This is the role I anticipate he holds in ‘19 as well alongside Ryan Yarbrough and Yonny Chirinos, with Blake Snell, Charlie Morton and Tyler Glasnow serving as the only traditional starters.

Another pair worth eyeing is the Brew Crew’s Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, who could pay immense dividends if either is handed a rotation job throughout 2019. For now, it looks like Woodruff should get the first crack at it after going 3-0 in 42 ⅓ IP (four starts) with a 3.30 FIP/3.36 xFIP/3.26 SIERA and a strong 47 strikeouts. Mix in Yasmani Grandal’s exemplary pitch-framing talents behind the dish and I’m in for a flier on Woodruff.

It looks as though JB is a Joe Ross believer, and I get it. Ross turns 26 in May and isn’t far removed from his 2015-16 with a 3.52 ERA/1.22 WHIP thanks to his fastball and slider. Again, pitching for Washington is a strong position, but he missed a big chunk of 2017-18 due to TJ surgery and was tagged with an ugly 5.02 ERA in 90 frames when on the bump. He must reel in the longball and ideally hone a third pitch to blossom, but a healthy offseason may yield dividends.

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