2019 Outfielders - Early Fantasy Baseball Rankings

Outfield is a unique position in the fantasy world. The best of the best reside in the outfield, with our consensus top two picks and nine of the top 25 overall players making this list. On the other hand, it is by far the deepest and easiest to gain late-round value if you choose to wait. That's why it's so important to determine exactly who to target at what point in your draft, especially in leagues that require four or five OF slots.

Whether it's power, speed, average, or sky-high potential, you can find whatever you are looking for at this position... if you know where to look. That's why I joined forces with our rankings gurus JB Branson, Nick Mariano, and Chris Zolli to come up with an early consensus for mixed leagues. We have over 660 players listed on our redraft ranks, broken down by tier because anything else would be uncivilized.

In case you missed it, check out our analysis around the diamond for first base, second base, third base, shortstop and catcher. Without any more delay, let's take a peek at the 2019 outfield rankings for January.

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2019 Fantasy Baseball Tiered Rankings: Outfielder (January)

Outfield Rankings - Upper Tiers

Tier One

Remember the brief debate last year about whether Trout was the consensus #1 overall pick or if Jose Altuve should supplant him? That was cute. Trout quieted doubters (insolent fools!) after injury issues in 2017 with one of the best seasons of his still young career. He came within two HR and three RBI of tying his career highs and posted an ungodly personal-best 1.088 OPS. Yeah, he's the top pick in every league.

Mookie Betts is a close second though. He batted .346, finished with a 30-30 season and seems to just be getting better. It was all capped off with the most prestigious of awards - gracing the cover of our 2019 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide! It seems he also took home some sort of MVP award as well.

His teammate, J.D. Martinez, is the only player who joins this illustrious tier and rightfully so. He followed up a 45-homer season in 2017 with 43 homers in his first season with Boston, including 141 R+RBI. I own a very slight amount of skepticism about a repeat given the fact he is now 31 years old and may not improve on his career-best numbers following a long postseason with a potential World Series hangover. That just means I have him as a late first-rounder instead of a mid-round pick. That lineup is loaded. Plus, he gets to face the Orioles 19 times.

Tier Two

Last year's NL MVP barely misses the cutoff for Tier 1, mainly thanks to some saltiness from Z-Man who has him at 18. I've got no illusions about Yelich hitting 36 HR again. Just like we all saw a power surge coming with his increasing fly ball rate, low HR/FB% and move to Milwaukee, it's apparent his 35% HR/FB from last year has to come down. Even if it's just 25 jacks, he's still a first-rounder with his ability to contribute elite numbers across all five categories.

We've got Ronald Acuna as the 13th overall player, but he is probably going to go higher than that in many drafts. It's rare to see a "can't-miss" prospect who pays immediate dividends the way he did. The only question is where he'll slot in the lineup, as he could bat leadoff again as he did after the All-Star break or move down to the cleanup spot. This could shift his value in terms of steals vs runs batted in, so keep an eye on that throughout the spring.

Aaron Judge might be a discount superstar based on last year's injury woes. The vast majority of his profile is identical to his phenomenal rookie year with the exception of a jump in ground balls, resulting in a 1.19 GB/FB after posting a 0.81 GB/FB in 2017. Expecting 50 home runs is a bit ambitious but we know it's within reach and you won't have to sacrifice average. Speaking of, teammate Giancarlo Stanton is one of the few players who could reach 100 runs and RBI with 38 HR and still be labeled a bust by New York fans. He may have pressed a bit in his first taste of the Big Apple but he's got one of the highest floors for a power hitter across the draft board.

As the only ranker who has Andrew Benintendi higher than Charlie Blackmon (by 21 spots no less), I feel compelled to explain. Both are surrounded by great talent in the lineup and can contribute in all major categories. But while Benintendi still hasn't fully tapped his power potential and is a safe bet to steal 20+ bases, Blackmon is trending down in both areas. His last three stolen base totals are 17, 14, and 12, so double-digits might be his ceiling at this point. Steady increases in Swinging Strike rate and Ground Ball rate are flags that Blackmon isn't making quite the same level of quality contact as before. He's a solid OF2 but not the elite option as before in my opinion.

Tier Three

Last year's poster boy for our Draft Guide, Cody Bellinger, struggled out of the gate and never managed to put together the type of season his owners hoped for. JB sees him as a late third-round pick but it might be wise to let him slide another round before counting on a rebound to his rookie form. Bellinger enjoyed a 25.2% HR/FB rate in 2017 and hasn't proven he can sustain that type of fortune, especially when his fly ball rate dropped to 40%.

Rhys Hoskins did indeed fall back to Earth after the insane power binge he exhibited as the second coming of Roy Hobbs a rookie. He could experience some positive regression after seeing his HR/FB% drop to 16%, especially if he winds up with lineup support in the form of Bryce Harper in addition to Jean Segura. Hoskins doesn't get cheated at the plate, averaging 212 feet per home run, fourth-highest among batters with 150 batted ball events. A few more pitches to hit could result in a 40-HR, 100-RBI season.

If you're looking for speed, Starling Marte and Lorenzo Cain are high-end OF2 types that deliver solid production across nearly all categories. Cain swiped 30 bags, scored 90 times and finished with a .308 average in his first season as a Brewer. His mere 38 RBI drop him down a tick, however, as Marte managed to steal 33 bases but also drive in 72 runs and double Cain's HR production.

Justin Upton is somewhat underappreciated given his consistency. He's delivered at least 25 HR and 70 RBI for six straight seasons with a handful of steals for good measure. He's getting better with time, as his hard-hit rate has gone up each of the past four seasons, up to 43.8% in 2018. Upton was 17th in Barrels/Batted Ball Event last season, showing that there's plenty of thunder left in his bat at the age of 31.

Outfield Rankings - Middle Tiers

Tier Four

The fact that Tommy Pham ranked higher than Eddie Rosario on a couple of my compadres' rankings shows the heightened value of steals in this climate. He should get the green light often, seeing as how Tampa Bay finished first in SB attempts per game last year. I might be underestimating his potential to go 20/20 and score 100 runs in a lineup that, while not exactly stacked, should be competitive enough to give him value. Rosario's ceiling intrigues me too much, though. He has improved his strikeout rate each year in the majors, down to 17.6% last year, and has a legit shot to bat .300 with 30 homers and 180 R+RBI. Personally, I prefer to chase speed at middle infield where the power potential is lesser anyway or later in the draft.

Mitch Haniger or Marcell Ozuna? For the others, Haniger, is the easy choice. I'll stick with the guy who has already put together an All-Star season and has the more favorable team situation. Ozuna was considered a bust last year after the massive expectations he set in 2017. He took some time adjusting to St. Louis but it's not as if he put together a bad campaign. He managed to hit .280, drove in 88 runs and posted a 45% hard-hit rate that was 40th in the majors. He also showed good plate discipline with a career-low 17.5% strikeout rate. With a year to adjust to the Cardinal way and the support of Paul Goldschmidt in the lineup, I'm expecting numbers in between 17-18, which would put him in the ballpark of 30 HR, 110 RBI and an average near .290. Pretty damn good for someone that can be had at the 70th pick.

Haniger could very well put up similar numbers to Ozuna, but not this year. The M's are clearly rebuilding and will be without the services of Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano, and Jean Segura. Hitting in front of Jay Bruce and Kyle Seager, while not terrible, isn't as exciting as it was three years ago. Haniger is a talented player but I don't see much of a higher ceiling than he showed us last year.

Wil Myers is officially moving back to the outfield this season, which creates a ripple effect that in turn lowers the value of other potential sleepers on this list who we'll visit later on. A slew of nagging injuries robbed Myers of what should have been one of his best seasons. Coming off a 30/20 campaign in 2017, it was good to see he was still effective on the bases, stealing successfully on 13 of 14 attempts in just 83 games. An oblique injury led to prolonged power slumps, however, and could never sustain consistent value. This could be a bounce-back season now if he can stay healthy now that he doesn't have to worry about learning a new position. #56 may be a tad generous, I'll admit, but I don't see Tommy Pham hitting 30 home runs any time soon and Myers can get you about the same amount of steals.

Tier Five

Michael Brantley's move to Houston places him just outside the top 100 players on our rankings, even though his NFBC ADP is 120 at the moment. He's the type of player who is more valuable in points leagues or those with a larger category base than 5x5 due to a low K rate and high doubles total (36). That doesn't mean he can't be a useful starting outfielder in roto, though. His .309/.364/.408 slash line would play well anywhere, but in Houston, it could easily lead to 100+ runs scored.

Cutch is constantly referred to as a former MVP who is past his prime. Sure, he probably won't live like it's 2013 ever again but it's not as if he's fallen off a cliff either. McCutchen managed to reach 20 homers for the eighth straight year and tallied 14 steals too. San Francisco, aside from being a big mess last year, ranked 54th in Ballpark Factor for HR and 29th in runs for right-handed batters. His new home in Philadelphia ranked fourth for HR and 12th for runs. He could be an overlooked asset that you shouldn't let slip past the 10th round.

I smell a rankings debate brewing between Nick and me regarding Aaron Hicks. My bearish ranking of 146 almost doubles his 79 for the Yankees outfielder. Aside from being a plus defender, he stepped up big time at the plate in his first tour in pinstripes by hitting 27 home runs, driving in 79 runs and swiping 11 bags. He's always had good discipline and it got even better despite the power surge; his 15.5% walk rate was fifth among qualified batters and his 0.81 BB:K was 10th. In retrospect, this ranking should be much higher and was probably a conservative approach based on the fact that last year was the first time he crossed 400 plate appearances.

A pair of rookies expected to debut early on comprise the bottom portion of this tier. Eloy Jimenez and Victor Robles are supposed stars in the making with little to prove in the minors. The whole service time issue can interfere with our best designs, however, so don't overspend for players that may be burning a bench spot for multiple weeks or even months. Reyes seems a better bet to make an immediate impact if Bryce Harper bolts.

Tier Six

Nomar Mazara has posted three straight 20-homer seasons and he is still 23 years old. He was absolutely raking in May and appeared regularly on our Statcast for Hitters weekly series as a buy-low based on expected slugging stats and exit velocity. A right thumb sprain cost him time on the DL and subsequently robbed him of his power, as he hit only five HR over the last three months. What could have been a breakout season last year turned into more of the same, making it seem as if we've seen what he has to offer already. I feel his season-end stats mask an impending breakout that warrants a higher pick than his ADP ranking as the OF42 suggests.

Both Mallex Smith and Harrison Bader offer speed, with Bader also offering some pop with a middling average. Smith his .296 and stole 40 bases last year for the Rays, which isn't surprising based on his minor league track record. If you have the need for speed after the majority of your starting spots are filled, Smith should be your preferred option with Bader as the consolation prize.

Which Brandon Nimmo we get in 2018 is a bit of a mystery. He was the hottest player around for a couple weeks but eventually cooled off and settled into an unexciting line of .263/17/47. He may get more pub than deserved based on the market he plays in.

Outfield Rankings - Lower Tiers

Tier Seven

Look, I don't hate Jose Martinez. I actually think he's a quality hitter and should get more credit than he has in St. Louis. That's the problem - he looks more and more likely to be squeezed out of playing time as the odd man out. With Goldy at first, Martinez must shift to the outfield where Ozuna already resides along with overpaid Dexter Fowler and the combination of Harrison Bader and Tyler O'Neill. The reason Fowler will play and Martinez won't: defense. Martinez is a liability with the glove whereas Fowler, for all his offensive shortcomings last year, is a plus fielder. The Cards gain speed and lose nothing at the plate with the two youngsters. A trade to the American League would cause me to bump J-Mart a full 100 spots in my rankings but until that happens, I won't burn a roster spot on him.

Who wants to take a flier on Adam Eaton as a sleeper for a third time? He has barely stayed on the field since moving to Washington and while the average is good, he's a liability in the power categories with not even 20 SB as his absolute upside. It hardly seems worth the risk, even as the 50th outfielder off the board.

Once bitten, twice shy. That sums up my feelings on Byron Buxton, who I was willing to take the chance on last year after a tantalizing end to 2017. His league-leading sprint speed isn't going anywhere and he'll be given every chance to stay at the Major League level all year but he has to take a major step forward with his approach. He looked lost at the plate most of last season, so it's understandable if those who owned him last year want no part of this project.

Franmil Reyes could be a great sleeper if we knew he was going to play on a regular basis. The Padres are mixing and matching parts to, presumably, accomplish something this offseason. Wil Myers will occupy one corner OF spot and they still have mega-prospects Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe around, along with the intriguing Franchy Cordero. As it stands, Reyes is probably slated to play 3-4 times a week unless a trade happens. Offseason surgery for a torn meniscus isn't expected to hold him back at the start of the season.

Tier Eight

You'd think a season hitting .297 with 93 RBI and nearly as many walks as strikeouts would earn you a contract somewhere! Nick Markakis was a waiver wire steal last year but now sits on the proverbial wire waiting for a team to call for his services. Depending on his landing spot, he could be a solid, if unexciting value once more. Adam Jones is another vet who has some gas left in the tank and could benefit from a change in scenery.

Billy Hamilton would be a tier higher if not for the anchor of a ranking that Chris hung on him at 335. You know what you're getting with Hamilton - a one-trick pony who could win you steals by himself but needs to be compensated for in all other areas. Kansas City might have been the best possible place for him to wind up, so if you aren't one of those owners who has sworn off him then his stock should be higher than last year.

A popular sleeper this year is Ramon Laureano, the A's outfielder who debuted last year. He turned some heads by stealing seven bases in 43 games but it should be noted that Oakland was dead last in stolen base attempts per game last year at 0.34 and 28th the year before.

Tier Nine

We want to believe in Kevin Kiermaier's power-speed combo translating to something more than highlight-reel catches but he really needs to stop crashing into walls for that to happen. He's only surpassed 400 at-bats once in five MLB seasons and is not a good bet to break that trend. New teammate Avisail Garcia wasn't a hot commodity on the free agent market, settling for a one-year, $3.5 million deal in Tampa to be their primary DH. He could bat in the middle of a promising young lineup and figures to be a bargain at his current ranking. Garcia won't ever bat .330 again, as his insane .392 BABIP of 2017 shows, but he is growing into his power. Garcia posted a .202 ISO that has risen the last three years. At just 27 years old, he shouldn't be ignored on draft day.

Here's an uninspiring quote about Yoenis Cespedes, who underwent heel surgery. "If he gives us anything this year, that is great," said Omar Minaya. That sounds much different than a day-to-day prognosis. Cespedes only played 38 games last year and saw his strikeout rate jump to almost 32%. The number that's most concerning is 33 - his age entering the 2018 season. He's been playing professionally since age 17 in Cuba and has a lot of wear and tear on a surgically repaired heel. He doesn't seem worth the risk, even if declared ready to go before the All-Star break.

Teoscar Hernandez is another Statcast darling who finished tied for ninth in Barrels per Plate Appearance at 9.4, also posting a hard hit rate of 46%. He's got a propensity to swing and miss when he doesn't make hard contact, however. Check out our breakdown of his profile for more detailed info.

Tier 10-14

Here are your late-round fliers and last-round picks. Many of these players won't be selected in typical drafts but should be monitored on the waiver wire throughout the early part of the season. As far as those who could be worth a roster spot ahead of Opening Day, here are some names to keep an eye on.

Players to Watch: Jake Cave, Daniel Palka, Willie Calhoun, Jorge Soler, Tyler O'Neill, Lewis Brinson, Keon Broxton, Clint Frazier, Austin Hays

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