RADIO
We've officially moved beyond the quarter-season mark and will be staring down the one-third pole when next week rolls around, so it's high time you start assessing your team and really scrutinizing those slow starts. I don't know why guys like Aaron Sanchez, Felix Hernandez, Rich Hill and Chad Bettis continue to have 50% ownership (or higher), but I trust those are the fantasy owners not coming to read articles like this.
We've got plenty to get to in a second, but quickly: it looks like Jordan Lyles' great start against the Rockies really was more about Colorado than Lyles, but I would respect folks holding him for one more spin. If you want to chat more about additional arms/bats/whatever, you can find me on Twitter @NMariano53 and ask any follow-up questions.
We're using Yahoo ownership levels and cutting things off around 30% this week. Here are my starting pitcher waiver wire targets for Week 8.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball draft tools and resources:- Fantasy baseball draft kit
- Fantasy baseball rankings
- Team Sync platform and Draft Assistant
- Fantasy baseball mock draft simulator
- Fantasy baseball draft cheat sheets
- Fantasy baseball closer depth charts
- Fantasy baseball prospects
Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Targets
Caleb Smith (MIA - SP/RP): 25% owned
Oh, ye of little faith! I hope none of you were among the contingent who dropped Smith after the clunker against the Dodgers and that you all added him where he was errantly made available. Your transaction was rewarded on Tuesday night, as he tore through the Mets with 6 ⅔ innings of one-run ball and eight strikeouts against just two walks. The southpaw now has a 3.06 FIP and 3.72 xFIP underneath the 3.83 ERA and a ridiculous 65 punchouts in 49 ⅓ frames. Walks will always be the key and you'll get the occasional headache, but he’s issued just 10 free passes over his last six starts so I am still 100% in, baby.
Trevor Cahill (OAK - SP): 24% owned
Cahill toyed with a watered-down Mariners team on Tuesday night, nearly cruising through seven innings without a blemish before serving up a two-run homer to Mike Zunino as he approached 100 pitches. He wound up throwing 101 on the night -- his first start of 100-plus pitches this season -- and it was clear his breaking pitches stopped dropping as much by the end. Oh well, so it goes. Luckily, he had been in control and inducing grounders left and right before then and now has a WHIP below 1.00 on the season.
He still hasn’t walked more than two batters or allowed more than three runs in any of his six outings but has only struck out four batters in 12 frames since coming off of the DL. That’s much different than the 31 in 24 innings prior to the right elbow impingement, so I’m willing to reset my sights a bit for now. The man still has an overall 2.94 xFIP and 3.13 SIERA to support his 2.75 ERA though, which means he needs to be owned in at least 50% of leagues, if not more.
Zach Eflin (PHI - SP): 23% owned
While not at his best against the Cardinals on May 19, Eflin was in line for the win before a premature rain-delay call by the umpires saw him lifted after just 4 ⅔ innings. He had yielded two runs and was certainly duller than his first two outings, but the important piece is that his velocity remains in the mid-90s. What’s somewhat interesting is that he had 2 MPH more on his curve with less drop, but I’m willing to chalk that variance up to life for now. He still barely features it, but Baseball Savant hasn’t registered a single ball in play off of the 15-20 he’s thrown in his first three starts thus far. I won't go in with a heavy hand here, but Philadelphia is playing well and I remain intrigued as long as the fastball averages around 95 MPH.
Ervin Santana (MIN - SP): 21% owned
Santana was one of, if not the, biggest poster boys for regression throughout 2017. Of course, it never really came and he ended up having a fantastic campaign. Even though we cannot expect the same performance in ‘18 following his capsular release procedure in his right middle finger in early February, this is an arm who will get to pick on the Royals, Tigers and White Sox in a top-heavy AL Central and I don’t think many appreciate that starting point. Jimmy Nelson (11% owned) is another DL stash to keep track of pending your roster space.
Ross Stripling (LAD - SP): 19% owned
The Dodgers seem to have outclassed themselves with “playing the 10-day DL” (sarcasm), as Rich Hill is set to miss a month with a blister issue, Clayton Kershaw is still working back from biceps tendinitis and Hyun-Jin Ryu tore his groin off the bone. Yikes. Anyway, the point is that Stripling’s spot in the rotation sure looks safe. The young sapling is blossoming in 2018, posting a 3.26 ERA over four starts (19 1/3 IP) after abusing opponents to the tune of one earned allowed in 15 1/3 innings from the bullpen.
Most of the ugliness as a starter came in a spot start against the D-backs on April 30, though, as he's given up just three earned over his last three trips to the rubber (15 1/3 IP) with a 21-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio over that span. It's nuts what a consistent role can do for a guy. I'm trusting the early 2.54 FIP/2.62 xFIP and beautiful 24.7% K-BB rate as a starter and getting in toward the ground floor here.
Luiz Gohara (ATL - SP): 19% owned
Gohara is finally getting the turn in the rotation that we all envisioned before Opening Day, but we need to temper expectations since he’s transitioning from the bullpen and will travel to Brazil after the outing to be with his sick mother. I understand the caution since his rehab starts weren’t pretty, but this is a premier talent who posted a 2.75 FIP/3.89 SIERA with 31 Ks in 29 ⅓ innings at age-20 last season and has the support of a top-flight Atlanta squad. If the Braves end up starting Anibal Sanchez over him down the line then we riot. Simple as that.
Daniel Mengden (OAK - SP): 16% owned
Let’s get this out of the way, Mengden is not a 3.30 ERA/1.08 WHIP pitcher. I don’t think many of you had that impression, but I just need to be certain. But that doesn’t mean he can’t be useful! Mr. Mustache got to face a cold Blue Jays squad on Monday and draws the worst-hitting team in the MLB with Arizona next. We’re not going to look a matchup gift horse in the mouth so I’m giving him at least one more turn in my rotation, but I’m not getting attached.
Joe Musgrove (PIT - SP/RP): 10% owned
Musgrove appears set to toe the rubber for the Pirates on Friday against the Cardinals after posting a very respectable 17-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 17 ⅔ innings (four rehab starts). The biggest knock against ol' Joe is the longball, but a move from Houston to Pittsburgh could help stop the flux of immigrants to Souvenir City from Musgroveland. My hope is that he winds up with a K-BB% around 16% with reduced homers, which will allow him to notch a 3.80 ERA/1.25 WHIP or so. His 4.04 SIERA was better than the 4.77 ERA in 109 ⅓ IP last year so I’m here in deeper 12-team formats, but I’m admittedly wary of his health holding up.
Carlos Rodon (CWS - SP): 7% owned
Rodon also fits the theme of “injury-prone starters” that we’re running with here, but he just turned in five innings of one-run ball in a rehab start and is good for over a strikeout per inning when healthy, so here we are. Those in head-to-head leagues may get burned by his inconsistent nature more -- he’s been a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher in some months and plus-7.00 ERA in others -- but he doesn’t cost anything right now and is still just 25 years old. Don’t plan on a WHIP below 1.30, but he could turn in a 28% strikeout rate or higher in this whiff-happy season.
Anthony DeSclafani (CIN - SP): 2% owned
Speaking of those with wary medical records, DeSclafani now has two rehab starts under his belt and has looked pretty darn good against Double-A players. Tony Disco has struck out 12 while walking just one over eight innings of work, yielding two earned runs on five hits. He hasn’t pitched in the Majors since 2016, but has a strong track record of plus control and could be an asset in NL-only and 14-team mixers. I wouldn’t expect the whiffs from his brief rehab stint to carry over considering his 105 Ks in 123 ⅓ innings back in ‘16, but he’s not a dud in the department either.
Forrest Whitley (HOU - SP): 2% owned
We don’t just talk about injury stashes here, we cover suspensions too! Whitley was slapped with a 50-game suspension in February for violating the MiLB drug program and then quietly dealt with a lat injury in early May. We know the Astros’ starting rotation is dealing at a historically-good pace right now so there’s no urgency for a hurler, but the six-foot-seven righty could still make his debut in the ‘pen this summer should he continue his dominance in the Minors.
He has an eye-popping 169 strikeouts in 111 professional innings with a 3.16 ERA/1.23 WHIP that has only improved as he progresses. With everyone (rightfully) fawning over which prospects might come up next, the suspended Whitley is basically a ghost. It won’t take long after he takes the hill for that to change, making him a great NA stash for anyone who has a player graduate from that slot in the coming Super Two weeks.
