RADIO
"Sometimes, a little bit of knowledge is worse than having none at all." Most fantasy owners are now savvy enough to perform basic BABIP regressions, but blindly regressing everything to the league average or even a given player's career work is a great way to set yourself up for disappointment.
For example, Trevor Story is a power hitter who nevertheless managed a .332 BABIP last year. Surely that's heading south! Meanwhile, Mookie Betts disappointed with a .264 batting average in 2017 thanks to a career-low .268 BABIP. Surely he's still a lock to hit .300!
It's not as easy as simply regressing everything to past performance and calling it a day. The conclusions below concerning the two players above may surprise you.
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Trevor Story (SS, COL) ADP: 108.8
Story flashed both his upside and downside over the course of 2017, ultimately slashing .239/.308/.457 with 24 HR and seven steals. His SB total was in line with his 2016 performance (eight), but his success rate improved dramatically between the two campaigns (78% vs. 62%). Story swiped a lot more bases on the farm (23 in 2013 and 2014, 22 in 2015), so his improved success rate could make his speed a factor in 2018.
That said, power remains his calling card. Story combines above average raw power (16.2% HR/FB last year) with an insane FB% (47.9% last year) to project for 30+ homers over a full season of PAs. His average airborne exit velocity (93.8 mph) ranked 99th in the league last year, while his rate of Brls/BBE (10.5%) ranked 52nd. He also pulls plenty of his fly balls (24.3% last year). Story should post another big number in the HR column.
The question is what that fly ball profile will do to his BABIP. Story's naysayers frequently complain that he pops up too often, and he does considering how many airborne balls he hits. However, his IFFB% (or rate of pop-ups per fly ball) was a reasonable 10.1% last year. Story doesn't really have a pop-up problem as much as he has an extreme batted ball distribution favoring power. Fantasy owners like power!
Story also has Coors Field to cover up some of his batting average deficiencies. Most fantasy owners know that Denver's high altitude boosts power output, and it does (113 HR Factor for RHB last year). However, it also boosts right-handed singles (111), doubles (112), and triples (128). The ballpark's total impact on batting average is great, helping story compile a .329 BABIP at home last year.
Story wasn't helpless outside of his home stadium either, posting a .336 BABIP in away games last year. His Statcast Sprint Speed is well above average at 28.4 ft./sec, letting him leg out infield hits many sluggers can't. He also doesn't pull enough ground balls to care about the shift (54.8%), giving him some legitimate BABIP ability.
Despite this, he probably won't hit .317 on ground balls again. A .290 figure seems more likely considering his home park, legs, and ability to use the whole field. His .167 BABIP is likely a product of Coors, though his average airborne exit velocity supports an elevated figure. Finally, any regression in his .727 BABIP on line drives should be mitigated by a slight increase in LD% (18.4% last year, 20.7% career). Overall, there's no reason Story's BABIP should fall below .310 as long as he's a Rockie.
His batting average will need a BABIP cushion because his plate discipline is awful. Last year's 34.4% K% was supported by an elevated chase rate (30.9%), high SwStr% (14.1%), and problematic 79.9% Z-Contact%. Pitchers respect his power enough that he still draws walks (8.8% BB% last year), but Story's batting average is unlikely to break .250 even with a favorable BABIP.
Thus, the question becomes whether or not Story's other numbers are strong enough to take a batting average hit. He could hit 35 HR at Coors, steal 20 bags, and is reportedly getting a look at the cleanup spot to accumulate R+RBI this year. He's currently being drafted outside the top-100, giving Story more than enough profit potential to justify his batting average risk.
Verdict: Champ
Mookie Betts (OF, BOS) ADP: 7.7
Betts slugged 24 homers and swiped 26 bases (three CS), but his .264/.344/.459 left owners in batting average formats wanting more. The good news is that his speed looks completely sustainable. His 28.1 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed and high success rate practically ensure another 25 SB in 2018.
His .268 BABIP is due for regression too, but not as much as you might think. Last year's 16.8% LD% figures to rebound closer to his 18.7% career mark, but that's still three percentage points below the league average. Guys who lack a line drive swing frequently struggle to post league average BABIPs.
Next, Betts's ground balls underachieved last season (.263 BABIP) relative to their career average (.304). His grounders had strong exit velocity behind them (87.4 mph), but they had more in both 2016 (89.6 mph) and 2015 (89.3 mph). Betts can run and doesn't mind the shift, so he should be above average on grounders. The problem is that he was last year. Nobody should be projected to hit .300 on the ground, meaning that last year's numbers (with maybe a little upside) are a better expectation moving forward.
Finally, we come to fly balls. Betts hits a lot of them (42.8% FB% last year, 41.2% career), giving him the same BABIP issue as Story. His IFFB% has also trended in the wrong direction three years running (10.5% in 2015, 12.3% in 2016, 14.8% last year), giving Betts a real pop-up problem. His airborne contact authority isn't great (92.8 mph, 4.3% Brls/BBE) and never has been (92.6 mph, 5.2% Brls/BBE in 2016, 92, 5.7% in 2015), meaning that last year's .134 BABIP on fly balls is likely headed south this year.
Those power metrics gave Betts a 10.1% HR/FB in 2017, making last year's power output his ceiling. Hitting more fly balls is unlikely, as he already has a fly ball profile. Pulling more flies is unlikely, as he already pulled 31.2% of them last year. He's shown no signs of improving his airborne contact quality. Any decline in FB% or Pull% on fly balls could actually make him a liability in the HR column.
That might seem strange considering his 31 HR in 2016, but that was the best power output of Betts's professional career. Last year was his second best performance. There's really no track record of consistent power hitting here.
The 25-year old brings elite plate discipline to the table, walking (10.8% BB%) nearly as often as he struck out (11.1% K%) last year. The performance was supported by his chase rate (22.1%), SwStr% (5%), and Z-Contact% (92.7%), but a full repeat is still tough to project. Even a 14% K% might offset the limited growth Bett's BABIP is due for.
Betts is a tremendous player in real life thanks to his 16 Outs Above Average in the outfield, but he doesn't translate that well in our game. A 25 SB guy who hits .290 with around 20 HR is good, but not first round material. Add in his fluid position in Boston's lineup, and the price is just too much.
Verdict: Chump
