2018 Pitching Fallers - ERA

December 25, 2018

Michael Grennell takes a look back at the starting pitchers who saw the biggest decline in value based on improved earned run average (ERA) in 2018. These SP could be elite fantasy baseball values in 2019.

In my last piece, we took a look at some of the pitchers who made significant improvements to their ERA in 2018. Now it's time to take a look at the guys who went in the other direction, and see if it's time to panic on them.

This list features two starters who were being drafted as top-30 starting pitchers last year, and two closers who were drafted as top-15 relievers. Of the four pitchers on this list, it's Cody Allen who has the shakiest fantasy value going forward, as he is the only one without a team the end of the Winter Meetings. Otherwise, everyone else will be in position to potentially rebound with the same team in 2019.

It's time to take a look and see if owners should stay the course or abandon ship in 2019.

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Plummeting ERAs in 2018

Jon Gray (SP, COL)
2017 ERA: 3.67, 2018 ERA: 5.12

Gray was a pitcher I was buying into for a breakout 2018 season. While his strikeout total did go up like I had hoped, so too did his ERA — jumping up almost a run and a half from his 2017 mark. Outside of his ERA skyrocketing, most of Gray's stats for 2018 were fairly good. He saw his strikeout rate tick upwards, and while his walk rate did see a slight bump up from 2017, it wasn't horrific by any stretch. The problem for Gray appears to have come from a decrease in velocity to his fastball and slider — the two pitches he relies on the most. His average fastball velocity dropped from 96.4 to 95.3 miles per hour, and his average slider velocity dropped from 90.1 to 88.4. This drop in velocity likely led to the sharp increase in his home run rate, as he posted a 1.41 HR/9 rate over 172.1 innings to shatter his previous career-high of 0.96 HR/9 over 168 innings in 2016.

All that being said, Gray should be able to rebound in 2019 and come back down closer to his 2017 mark. In an article from Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post, Gray said that he felt the drop in velocity was partially because he was down 20 pounds from 2017, and that he intends to spend the off-season bulking up for next year. Advanced statistics also suggest that Gray was unlucky this year, as his 4.08 FIP, 3.47 xFIP and 3.68 SIERA were all significantly lower than his 5.12 ERA. There are signs that Gray will have a better year in 2019, but for now fantasy owners shouldn't plan on drafting him as anything other than a late, late round flyer until after watching him throw in Spring Training.

Zack Godley (SP, ARI)
2017 ERA: 3.37, 2018 ERA: 4.74

After making the move full time into the Diamondbacks rotation in 2017 and finishing with the 16th best ERA among pitchers with 150 innings pitched, Godley took a step back in 2018 as his 4.74 mark was the fifth-highest among qualified pitchers. While his 8.9 H/9 and 4.1 BB/9 were a slight bump up from his 2017 mark, it appears that the main culprit behind Godley's ERA spike could simply be fatigue. After throwing 150 innings for the first time in his career in 2017, Godley pitched a career-high 178.1 innings for Arizona in 2018. He also led the majors with 17 wild pitches and tied for the National League lead with 12 hit batters. That plus a dip across the board in his velocity suggests that he struggled with the heavy workload after coming up through the minors as primarily a reliever.

Going forward, fantasy owners will have to decide who is the real Zack Godley: the 2017 version or the 2018 version? Unfortunately for those hoping Godley can rebound, it seems like 2017 might have been an outlier. Like Gray, the advanced metrics suggest Godley was somewhat unlucky in 2018 with a 3.82 FIP, 3.96 xFIP and 4.18 SIERA. But those numbers all closely match his stats from 2015 and 2016:

Now there are other factors to consider in this, but it does suggest that the real Zack Godley might be more of a high-3.00, low 4.00 ERA pitcher. If this is true, it will still be an improvement from 2018, and he also appears to be a consistent high strikeout pitcher with a career 9.0 K/9 across six seasons in the majors and minors while never posting a K/9 below 7.0 in the majors. He should be worth owning in most leagues next year, but think of him in the tier of Cole Hamels or Andrew Heaney until he can prove otherwise.

Cody Allen (RP, CLE)
2017 ERA: 2.94, 2018 ERA: 4.70

It was a rough year for the Indians' closer, as he posted a career-worst 4.70 ERA with a 1.358 WHIP, 11.4 percent walk rate and 27.7 percent strikeout rate — all three of which were the worst marks since his debut season in 2012. Now the strikeout rate is still at a top tier level for a closer, but it is a noticeable drop from the 33.2 percent rate Allen had recorded over the prior four seasons. On top of that, Allen recorded a career-high 50.6 percent flyball rate and his 12.8 percent HR/FB rate was the second-highest of his career. Owners looking for a culprit to this decline will likely find the answer in his declining velocity. After reaching a peak average velocity of 96.4 mph in 2014, Allen's fastball has declined in velocity each season to where he posted an average velocity of 94 mph in 2018. His curveball has seen a similar decline over that span, dropping from 86.9 mph in 2014 to 83.8 last season.

Allen is currently a free agent, and while there are some reports of teams being interested in him there are no solid indications of where he might end up at the moment. That will be the biggest issue for fantasy owners to keep an eye on, for if he ends up in a middle relief role then the question of whether or not he can rebound is largely irrelevant. But let's assume for the moment that he lands with a team where he will take over as the Opening Day closer. Allen's FIP and xFIP suggest that he was only slightly unlucky last season and that his true ERA should have been closer to about 4.50. His SIERA, however, suggests Allen should have posted a 3.77 ERA — still not great for a top tier closer, but significantly better. So looking at all the numbers, if Allen gets a closer job he will still be worth owning. But rather than draft him as a top-10 closer like last year, he should really only be considered in the later rounds along with closers like Fernando Rodney.

Wade Davis (RP, COL)
2017 ERA: 2.30, 2018 ERA: 4.13

Unlike Allen, Davis will have a much more solid opportunity to rebound in 2019 as he remains under contract with the Rockies for two more years. But he will need to show some improvement this year coming off his worst season as a full-time reliever.  His 4.13 ERA was the worst since 2013 when he served primarily as a starter for Kansas City and posted a 5.32 ERA over 135.1 innings. And while he finished with a career-high 43 saves, he also had blow-ups come at inopportune times as his six losses on the year matched his combined total from the previous four seasons. The biggest problem for Davis — and the reason to be the most optimistic for a rebound in 2019 — was he had a down year in leaving runners stranded on base. Despite lowering his H/9 and walk rate from his 2017 season, Davis posted a 66.9 percent LOB rate — a significant drop from his 86.3 percent rate over five seasons as a full-time reliever and the worst rate since his debut season in 2009. His advanced metrics all suggest that, while his ERA shouldn't have been as low as it was in 2017, it should have been closer to being in the 3.50 range.

Of the four players on this list, Davis is the one guy to be the most optimistic on for putting up a better ERA in 2019. With some minor variations here and there, essentially all of his stats are the same as they have been the past two seasons with the one big exception being his LOB rate. Assuming that rate trends back toward his career line, Davis should be fine for fantasy owners this season. His ERA might not get back down to where it had been for the past few seasons, but an ERA around 3.40 to 3.60 should be a good prediction for owners to consider when drafting him in 2019. Davis was drafted on average around the 10th or 11th rounds last season, but taking into account the increase in his likely ERA from what he posted in 2017, owners should look to target him closer to the 13th, 14th or 15th rounds this year.

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