July 14, 2017

Chris Moore profiles Indianapolis Colts tight end (TE) Jack Doyle as a fantasy football sleeper for 2017. He could be a draft value according to current ADP.

The 2016 NFL season was far from a banner year for the tight end position as it relates to fantasy football. Travis Kelce was the consensus #5 TE heading into 2016 drafts and managed an impressive 85 catches, 1,125 yards, and four TDs. While this did net him a #1 finish at the position, his 138 fantasy points in standard, fractional formats only managed to clear the TE12, Coby Fleener, by a paltry 50.7 points. At barely more than three points per game clear of the de facto replacement level at the position, Kelce’s eighth-round ADP turned a profit, but it’s fair to call it a modest one.

Other TEs among the first handful selected in fantasy drafts weren’t such a rewarding prospect for their fantasy owners. While Greg Olsen and Delanie Walker lived up to their average draft positions, Jordan Reed and especially Rob Gronkowski were injury related busts. Meanwhile, waiver wire revelations such as Kyle Rudolph (outside the consensus top 20) and Cameron Brate (outside the consensus top 30) scored 126 points and 114 points respectively. Translation: you were almost as likely to snag a top six scorer at the position by playing waiver wire roulette as you were by investing significant draft capital. For it to be worth drafting a tight end early, you need to find an outlier, somebody who is going to give you a definitive advantage at the position over your opponent on a weekly basis.

Of all the positions that one might consider making a low priority in drafts, arguments can be made that tight end makes the most sense. As with the quarterback position, there are 32 starting tight ends to choose from, and most teams will only start one of them. Why invest an early draft pick that you could otherwise use on a breakout running back or wide receiver? Why not just look for an unheralded player in a high volume passing attack that doesn’t shy away from the TE, especially in the red zone? Why not consider Jack Doyle of the Indianapolis Colts?

Why Doyle May Rule

An undrafted free agent out of Western Kentucky in 2013, Doyle doesn’t distinguish himself with physical measurables or pedigree. Playing third fiddle at tight end behind Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen for his first three NFL seasons, 2016 was the first campaign that saw him play a significant role on offense. Doyle made the best of the opportunity, however, quietly leading all qualifying TEs in catch rate, with 59 receptions on 75 targets, good for a 78.7% clip. His 9 red zone targets were also good for top 5 at the position. His overall numbers (59 catches, 594 yards, and 5 TDs) saw him finish 13^th among TEs in standard formats with 86.4 fantasy points.

His sure-handedness in his first extended opportunity was rewarded with a three-year, 19 million dollar contract extension, half of which is guaranteed. This is not exactly a small investment for an NFL team. Furthermore, the Colts seemed confident enough in Doyle to lead their TE committee that they let Dwayne Allen leave town. The other four TEs currently on roster have only 21 receptions combined in their NFL careers. It’s fair to say that Doyle has the trust, not only of his quarterback, but also of his organization.

If there is a wet blanket to throw on any potential Jack Doyle hype, it is probably just to caution that there is not yet an official timetable for Andrew Luck’s return to action, but the organization has yet to express concern about his availability for the regular season opener. Still, while it’s encouraging 43 of Luck’s 134 career TDs (32%) have gone to tight ends, he’ll need to be on the field to facilitate that production.

That said, Luck’s shoulder procedure could actually be a net benefit to the Colts passing game generally, as well as to Jack Doyle’s prospects specifically. This procedure is allegedly addressing an issue the signal caller has been playing through for most of the last two seasons. As the potential beneficiary of the lion’s share of TE targets from the healthiest Luck we’ve seen since 2014, there’s plenty of reason to believe Jack Doyle can return TE1 numbers at a TE2 price. He might share some of the bounty with Erik Swoope, a deep sleeper in his own right, but the Colts have proven to be an offense with enough octane to support the relevance of multiple TEs, and Jack Doyle shouldn’t have a problem building on his emergence as one of Andrew Luck’s favorite targets in 2017.

As the consensus #13 TE in early drafts, there’s an opportunity to be one of the last in your league to draft a TE, but still be very satisfied with the one you end up with.

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