Our review of the 2016 fantasy baseball season continues with a look at some of the breakout performances in the outfield.

Breakout Outfielders in 2016

Trea Turner, Washington Nationals

Turner was an absolute stud in his rookie year, hitting .342/.370/.567 with 13 homers, 53 runs, and 33 steals in just 73 games. As always, it’s important to resist the urge to simply extrapolate those numbers to a full season and assume that’s what Turner will produce in 2017. There are plenty of reasons to expect regression.

Turner’s power surge looks like a fluke. He had never hit more than nine homers in a season or posted an ISO higher than .169 in the minors. The rebuttal to this would be that Turner is only 23 years old and still developing, so a leap forward isn’t out of the question. But Turner’s exit velocity on fly balls was pretty much in line with the league average, and he’s not an extreme pull hitter. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him pull a Carlos Correa and hit fewer homers as a sophomore despite a full season’s worth of plate appearances.

Turner is also unlikely to post a .388 BABIP again. While he has the tools to maintain an elite mark, the simple truth is that it’s really hard to sustain what he enjoyed as a rookie. Only 12 qualified hitters have had a .380 BABIP in the last five seasons, and they saw an average drop of over 40 points the following year.

It stands to reason that if he’s on base less, Turner will have fewer opportunities to run. Even if he improves his walk rate to offset a likely drop in BABIP, expecting him to maintain the pace he set in 2016 is unrealistic. Only five players have logged 80 stolen base attempts in the last 10 seasons combined, and they averaged 23 fewer attempts a year later.

Despite all this, Turner should still carry a ton of value in 2017. He’s a good bet for double-digit homers and 40 – 50 stolen bases.

Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians

Ramirez’s emergence was crucial to Cleveland’s success in 2016, as he more or less gave them what Michael Brantley would have been expected to provide if healthy. After struggling in 2015 and losing the shortstop gig to Francisco Lindor, Ramirez split his time between third base and left field. He managed to boost his OPS by nearly 200 points while adapting to these new positions.

The improvement does appear legitimate, as he maintained his excellent contact rate while cutting down on pop-ups and trading grounders for line drives. Like many other hitters in recent years, adding a more pronounced leg kick has allowed Ramirez to smooth out his swing mechanics and hit for a bit more power.

Ramirez has always had the speed and instincts to be an asset on the base paths, so assuming he can maintain the progress he showed at the plate, another 20+ SB season seems easily attainable. He should also be good for double-digit home runs again – he produced virtually identical flyball and HR/FB rates each of the last two years.

Stephen Piscotty, St. Louis Cardinals

Piscotty hit .305/.359/.494 as a rookie in 2015, but only managed seven home runs. His profile suggested more upside in the power department, and he delivered with 22 bombs in 2016. His batting average dropped to .273, but that was mostly due to BABIP regression. His contact rate didn’t drop much, and he continued to hit the ball hard.

While Piscotty consistently hit for average in the minors, he also struck out significantly less there than he has in the big leagues to this point. A 21 percent strikeout rate isn’t terrible in today’s game, but Piscotty will have trouble being a true asset in the batting average department if he can’t cut down on the swings and misses. His batted ball distribution remained fairly static except for an increase in Pull%, which likely accounts for the slight bump in home run rate that he enjoyed.

Piscotty’s run production totals were solid, as he scored 86 runs and drove in 85. Hitting in the top half of an excellent Cardinals lineup should allow him to maintain those paces. On the bases, Piscotty has a bit of work to do. He chipped in seven steals, but they came on 12 attempts. It seems unlikely that he’ll run more if that success rate doesn’t improve substantially.