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t’s really hard to admit when we have made a mistake. But sometimes, we look back on our fantasy season and we slap ourselves around for drafting a player who just didn’t cut it. The preseason hype was there, we were so excited to see the player tear it up, and he completely failed us. Like it or not, every season has its busts and having one in your lineup can be a hard pill to swallow.
But in 2016, there is a need for optimism. Not all busts stay busts forever, and many players have the ability to return to their normal form. Let’s take a look at some valuable players who are primed for a great return after a dismal 2015 season.
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2016 Rebound Candidates
Jacoby Ellsbury has been up, down, back up, then back down again since he traded the grey and red for pinstripes. His first year as a New York Yankee in 2014 was vintage Ellsbury: 172 hits in 635 PA, 31 doubles, 16 home runs, 71 R, 70 RBI, 39 SB. Surely not the earlier days of 70 SB and 94 R, but it was close enough.
Last year, we were reminded that sometimes, vintage Ellsbury also means injuries. He only managed 501 PA in 111 GP and came up with 66 R, 33 RBI, and 21 SB. Could have been worse, but also could have been much better.
The fact that Ellsbury is a lefty in Yankee Stadium is always a plus, and we have to remember that he is only 32. We tend to gasp when players hit the 30 mark, but guys like Ellsbury don’t just fizzle out after one bad year with a new team. Ellsbury has really yet to prove his worth to the Yankee fanbase and last year, his counterpart Brett Gardner was the one getting all of the attention. He may not warrant an early ADP in 2016, but taking him in the 5th or 6th round would be a high risk, high reward move that could pay huge dividends.
There never seems to be enough controversy surrounding Yasiel Puig. In 2014, it was the character questions, the tardiness to both practice and games, and the feeling that Puig may be a locker room distraction. All this talk did not stop Puig from smashing .296/.382./.480, 92 R, 69 RBI, 37 doubles, 16 home runs, and 11 SB sprinkled on top.
Last season was a letdown for Puig as hamstring injuries kept him to just 311 PA in 79 games. Although he still managed 11 home runs in that short span of time, his deflated .255 average, 38 RBI, and shrunken .296 BABIP did not impress. In the beginning of the season, Puig looked spry and ready to build on a great 2014. Unfortunately his body did not hold up.
Puig has most likely thought long and hard about what he is trying to accomplish in MLB over this offseason. He is surrounded by greatness in many of his teammates; namely Clayton Kershaw, the ace of our time who is always giving the Los Angeles Dodges a chance to win, and Adrian Gonzalez, the veteran whose time in Boston gave him a wealth of experience to pass on to the young Puig.
Climb aboard everyone - 2016 is the year the Puig really gets after it. 20+ home runs, an average above .300, and an OPS above .900 are coming.
Jeff Samardzjia is no stranger to a change in scenery these days. After forming the backbone of the Chicago Cubs for so many years, Samardzjia has found himself in Oakland, back in Chicago but with the White Sox, and back out to the Bay Area with the San Francisco Giants, all in the span of two seasons.
The Giants brain trust brought in Samardzjia on a 5-year, $90 million deal, hoping he can rekindle some of that 2014 magic when he arrived at a 2.99 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 8.28 K/9. The Giants are willing to bet that Samardzjia’s 2015 season was an aberration. They have forgone offers from Tom Anderson to essentially buy Tim Lincecum and simply put, they are going in a new direction.
Behind Madison Bumgarner is big-money acquisition Johnny Cueto, who may have silenced all the critics with a dominant World Series performance, and then there is Samardzjia, who is not used to being the third guy on the list.
Is there concern for Samardzjia going into 2016? Not really. For a pitcher that is historically reliant on K’s, you could look at the depressed K% and the increased HR/9 as major red flags, or you could look at them as signs of trying to find some middle ground on a ball club that just didn’t feel right for Samardzjia.
I am confident that Samardzjia will be able to use a ballpark with more favorable dimensions to his advantage. His SwStr% was not far from his best career years, and his experience shows in his still-high 62.4% F-Strike%. In 2016, the K’s will return, the ERA will stabilize, and we will see Samardzjia rack up way more winning decisions to finish at least inside the top 20 for SP.
LaRoche is another member of the 2015 Chicago White Sox that couldn’t really figure it out. After spending the last four years with the Washington Nationals, LaRoche cashed in on an excellent 2014 and signed a nice deal with the White Sox. Playing mostly at DH and hitting cleanup behind Cuban star Jose Abreu, LaRoche did not even come close to reproducing his 2014 numbers. In fact, 2015 was the worst year of his career.
LaRoche managed to hit just .207 with a 27.5% K% and a lousy .634 OPS. For a guy who has crushed home runs his entire career, his Hard% was the lowest of his career at 33.9% and his HR/FB was only 10.3%. On the outside looking in, LaRoche looks like a player to steer clear of in 2016.
Before we get ready to cross him off of the list, consider this: before his horrid 2015, there really was no sign of a slow down in LaRoche’s production. Including the scarily low 12 home runs he hit last season, the guy has hit 119 total home runs since 2010. Aside from the home runs, he has shown the ability to get on base with an average OBP of .329 from 2010-2014. Even in his terrible 2015, he still managed a .293 OBP.
In 2016, LaRoche just needs to get settled in and get back to his consist power-hitting ways. The White Sox have helped by bringing in Todd Frazier. If he starts off on the right foot, LaRoche could find himself hitting behind Adam Eaton, Frazier, Abreu, and maybe even Melky Cabrera if they decide to bump him down to fifth. This gives LaRoche unlimited RBI potential and I see LaRoche easily passing the 20 home run mark.
Look at Steve Cishek’s 2013 and 2014 seasons and we see a dominant closer that was lights out whenever called upon. Look at his 2015 season, and we see a pitcher whose command seemed to disappear and who began to doubt himself after being traded to a new team.
In 2015, Cishek was moved to the St. Louis Cardinals for a minor league pitcher after the Miami Marlins had pretty much seen enough. Between both teams, the entire season was ugly on the whole. A career-high BB/9 of 4.39 and a career high HR/9 of 0.65 showed glaring issues with his command. Factor in the career low Zone% of 46.4%, and Cishek was the definition of erratic. But you can’t just write off a closer who compiled 73 SV and 8 W in 135 IP from 2013-2014.
In 2016, the Seattle Mariners are making the extremely wise decision to give Cishek another chance. After years of nail biting with Fernando Rodney, Mariners fans are ready to be at ease when their closer has to handle a save situation. In 2014, Cishek finished with an 11.57 K/9 - the league average for that season was 7.73. He also dominated lefty hitters, holding them to a .209 average.
Cishek has been in the league long enough to know what he needs to improve. In 2016, he gets back to where he left off in 2014 and leaving last season as a blip on the radar. Look for Cishek to bounce back and approach 40 SV with a mid-to-high 2.00’s ERA.
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