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Oswaldo Arcia: Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleeper for 2015
Power is a rare commodity in fantasy baseball, such that any player with 30 home run potential becomes particularly valuable. The key is determining who these players are before a breakout actually occurs. Former top prospects that have fallen under the radar are a great place to look. Oswaldo Arcia, Baseball America’s #41 overall prospect in 2013, is a prime example of a player with high potential who has fallen under the fantasy radar. While 20 HR is decent, a .231 AVG from a corner outfielder will drive many fantasy baseball managers away. But beneath the surface, there are numerous reasons to be excited about Arcia’s outlook for the 2015 season.
Among all players with at least 400 plate appearances, Arcia ranked 17th overall with an 18.6 HR/PA rate. Barring injury, he is likely to see an increase in playing time, even with the addition of Torii Hunter to the Twins' lineup: they may to see him improve in a larger role, similar to how the Cubs utilized Anthony Rizzo in 2014. Arcia has already proven that he can produce good power numbers in limited opportunities. Last season, Arcia increased his flyball rate and decreased his groundball rate, and also grew his average batted ball distance from 221 feet in 2013 (57th in MLB) to 242 feet in 2014 (38th in MLB). The end result was an increase in HR/FB% from 14.7% to 19.4%, which would have ranked seventh overall among qualified hitters. There are no questions that Arcia’s power numbers will increase given additional playing time.
The concern with Arcia ultimately boils down to if he can make enough contact. Last season’s value was seriously capped by a .231 average, but there are still some reasons to be optimistic. Arcia’s 21.6% line drive rate was above average, flashing the ability to make quality contact when he wasn’t striking out. However, almost one third of Arcia’s plate appearances ended with a strikeout in 2014, which limited any upside in the AVG or OBP departments. Unfortunately, this trend was not limited to just last season. Arcia has struck out at a rate of 31% in each of his two major league seasons, though that number never eclipsed 24% at any minor league stop, and Arcia totalled a .314 batting average overall in the minors. On a positive note, his BABIP was only .292, which, compared with an xBABIP of .319, indicates that more hits will land in 2015. With neutral luck and marginal improvement, Arcia will not hit .231 again.
In Summary
If Arcia can cut his strikeout rate down to 20-25%, as his minor league numbers suggest is possible, and earn more playing time, we could be looking at a 30+ home run player with a .260-.270 batting average, a great value for his likely draft slot. Steamer’s projection system forecasts 24 home runs and a .259/.322/.452 triple slash line, which is slightly more conservative, but still predicts improvement for Arcia’s strikeout rate and overall numbers. Those statistics are a good baseline of what to expect, but even greater things may be in the cards for Arcia in 2015.
