RADIO
11.63.
That's how many strikeouts Phil Hughes posted for every walk he issued last season, the best ratio in MLB history. Here is a list of the starting pitchers who have achieved a double-digit K/BB ratio in a season: Jim Whitney, Brett Saberhagen, Ben Sheets, Cliff Lee, and Hughes. That's it, in 140-plus seasons. Pedro Martinez never did it, though two of the top 15 marks in history belong to him. Ditto for Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Walter Johnson, Christy Matthewson, or any other Hall of Fame hurler you can think of.
How did this happen? How did a pitcher who, in parts of six seasons as a starter, had never even managed an ERA south of 4.00 achieve something that has eluded almost every legend?
Park factors are often exaggerated, but in Hughes' case, he was an extreme flyball pitcher moving from a launching pad in New York to Target Field, one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the game. The move to Minnesota certainly helped his previously atrocious HR/9 ratio (1.65 and 1.48 in 2012 and 2013, respectively).
But Hughes didn't just count on his new home to bail him out; he also overhauled his repertoire and approach. Making adjustments to his curveball and cutter and ditching his slider entirely, Hughes resolved to attack the strike zone and let the chips fall where they may.
There's a tendency in the analytics community to occasionally understate or overlook the mental aspect of the game. This is an easy impulse to understand. Years of listening to former players and managers drone on about intangibles under the guise of "analysis" can have a corrosive effect on fans looking for something more substantial. Still, it's tough to imagine Hughes having the confidence to remake himself in Yankee Stadium after years of suffering its cruelty. The Twins bet on Hughes and it paid huge dividends, enough that they doubled down and signed him to a three-year, $42 million extension in December. The question, both for Minnesota and for fantasy owners, is whether his gains were sustainable.
Hughes actually had better numbers on the road than at home last year, with a 2.78 ERA and 2.28 FIP away versus 4.25 and 3.01 marks in Minnesota. That's more interesting than illuminating, given what we know about the value of home/road splits, but it's noteworthy all the same. He's unlikely to repeat an 0.69 BB/9 - only 11 pitchers in MLB history have posted a BB/9 under 1, and the only one to do it twice was Maddux - but Steamer's projection of 1.62 would still put him among the elite. Steamer also projects a 1.24 HR/9, which I'll gladly take the under on if I can find a book offering that bet. Hughes had a career high strikeout rate last season, but it wasn't that far out of line with his previous performance. And while his approach coupled with a lousy defense behind him may be to blame for an inflated BABIP, some regression there could offset any increase in walks.
In Summary
Finally free of the oppression that Yankee Stadium doles out to righty flyballers, Hughes flourished in his first season in the Land of Ten Thousand Lakes by doing a pretty good impression of Lee's transformation in 2008. Whether or not he follows a similar path to Lee and becomes dominant, he should be a very valueable fantasy asset in 2015, especially in leagues that count walks or K/BB as categories. Is Phil Hughes a sleeper? It's possible that any given league sleeps on him, but unlikely after his 2014. If he does fall far enough in your draft (think round 9-10), he could return some serious value in 2015.
