RADIO
Hardy's Track Record Makes Him a Late-Round Sleeper
When identifying a fantasy baseball draft sleeper, I like the guy to fit a few different criteria. First among those is being “under the radar,” but also I need there to be some proof that there’s potential upside when looking beneath the surface.
In our 2015 shortstop rankings, J.J. Hardy had a composite ranking of 14.6 and was mentioned exactly zero times in the narrative section. Nine of RotoBaller’s finest baseball analysts skipped over Hardy as just another option come Opening Day. Maybe they’re absolutely correct, but let’s take a look to see if we may have some hidden value where we least expect it.
Analyzing Hardy's Power Trends
Hardy is entering his age 32 season and his fifth with the Orioles. He’s often branded as a valuable baseball player, but not a valuable fantasy baseball player. He’s lauded for his defense, but criticized for his erratic offensive performances. He flashed some excellent power in years past, but was most known in 2014 for having the 7th highest infield fly ball rate. That’s acceptable if he hit as many home runs as a few guys ahead of him on that list (Chris Carter, Jose Bautista, Brian Dozier) - but Hardy disappointed with only 9 HR during the 2014 season.
| Games | AVG | wOBA | HR | HR/FB | K% | |
| 2011 | 129 | .269 | .344 | 30 | 15.7% | 16.2% |
| 2012 | 158 | .238 | .390 | 22 | 10.0% | 14.9% |
| 2013 | 159 | .263 | .322 | 25 | 12.4% | 11.3% |
| 2014 | 141 | .268 | .303 | 9 | 5.6% | 18.3% |
The table above shows a few metrics that are important in evaluating Hardy. In 2014 he saw his K rate increase 7% from 2013, which is enough for some guys to get moved to the bench. But that K rate isn’t exactly unknown territory for Hardy; in 2011, he sported a 16.2% K rate, but still managed to end up with an extremely impressive 30 home runs in 129 games. It seems like his power surge in 2011 and power outage in 2014 are the outliers here. Taking it a step further, let’s look at his BaseballHeatMaps batted ball profile:
| Rank | Batted Balls | Distance | |
| 2011 | 145 | 431 | 186.9 |
| 2012 | 201 | 548 | 179.6 |
| 2013 | 229 | 515 | 179.3 |
| 2014 | 213 | 433 | 179.5 |
There are some similarities between the two data sets. First, you’ll notice that Hardy didn’t really hit the ball any shorter than the last two years, but the volume (batted balls) was down significantly. Thank you, 18.3% K rate. Hardy got away with the higher K rate in 2011 by hitting the ball over 7 feet farther, a number that’s meaningful over the course of a full season. He ended up getting exposed in 2014 because he wasn’t making pitchers pay when he did make solid contact.
What to Expect in 2015
So what can we expect for the 2015 fantasy baseball season? All in all, I’m comfortable saying that Hardy approaches 20+ home runs. His 5.6% HR/FB rate was incredibly low in 2014, and I would expect it to settle in around 11.0%. If he’s healthy enough to generate the volume, his counting stats can be valuable on draft day.
Given that the Orioles signed him to a 3-year $40M contract this off-season, I would find it hard to believe that they expect further regression in his skill set for 2015. All of this makes Hardy a lower tier shortstop on draft day, but definitely one worth monitoring. I wouldn’t be shocked if by the end of 2015 he outperforms some unproven shortstops like Javier Baez and Xander Bogaerts, or injury risks like Hanley Ramirez or Jose Reyes.
