Jedd Gyorko: 2015 Fantasy Baseball Second Base Sleeper

Jedd Gyorko was a popular sleeper candidate coming into 2014. Having just hit .249/.301/.444 with 23 home runs in 2013, it wasn't hard to see him as reminiscent of Dan Uggla. Sadly, Gyorko's sophomore season was more 2014 Uggla than the 2010 version. A .210/.280/.333 line with only 10 home runs just doesn't cut it in fantasy. After last year, some are asking if Gyorko is still someone even worth considering on draft day. I think he is.

2013 wasn't a fluke. Power has always been a part of Gyorko's game, extending well into his time as a minor leaguer in the Padres' system.

What happened last year then? Gyorko's home run per fly ball distance numbers may be a clue. They dropped from 287.58 ft to 278.05 ft between 2013 and 2014, enough to knock Gyorko from a top 100 finish in the category to 154^th on the list. That's two spots behind the “power hitting” Brandon Crawford.

Recall, however, that Gyorko wasn't exactly healthy in 2014. Plantar fasciitis cost him nearly two months of playing time between June 4^th and July 28^th, and I wouldn't be surprised if the effect of this lower body injury is at least in part to blame for his lost year.

While attempting to play through the same injury in 2012, Albert Pujols suffered through career lows in batting average, home runs and isolated power (a metric used to capture the overall power output of a player). As you can see below, with the injury behind him Pujols rebounded nicely.

The idea that injuries were in part to blame for Gyorko's poor performance is further supported by his first half/second half splits. While Gyorko's raw home run numbers themselves were static between the two samples (largely due to a near 9% decrease in the number of fly balls hit), he enjoyed immediate spikes in the rest of his performance statistics.

Whether Gyorko can carry this production over to 2015 and, more importantly, whether he can stay on the field, are questions that still need to be answered. One thing I can say with confidence, however, is that he will be given every opportunity to do so.

Gyorko will get at bats simply because the Padres don't have much else behind him. After you account for Gyorko and Alexi Amarista, who's penciled in at SS, the Padres have an uninspiring combination of Cory Spangenberg, Clint Barmes and Yangervis Solarte to fill in at middle infield, and that's even assuming Will Middlebrooks can hold down the everyday third base job. I assure you, the Padres did not just take on the contracts of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and Wil Myers to hand second base over to Spangenberg and Barmes. If Gyorko doesn't play 150 games next year, it won't be because the Padres planned it that way.
 

In Summary

Overall, Gyorko makes an attractive package on draft day. You don't find a lot of second baseman in the late rounds of the draft with a league average batting average and 20 homer upside. With the improvements in the Padres lineup, Gyorko should benefit from a much higher ceiling in the RBI and runs scored categories. There's risk involved, but I think this is a player that warrants a late round pick, even in standard leagues.