RADIO
Chase Utley's First Half of 2014 Makes Him a 2015 Sleeper Candidate
There’s something inherently flawed with how we rank fantasy baseball players. For fantasy amateurs, draft day is simply going through a top 250 player ranking and drafting the next best available player based on need. But once you’ve been around the block a few times, you know it’s significantly more than that. Ranking a player as 12th best at his position tells you nothing about his ceiling, breakout potential, or consistency. Many experts will tell you to target high upside players in hopes that you’ll find the next Anthony Rendon or Jose Altuve, which would have only cost you a late pick in the 2014 draft. Because many experts are preaching this, it’s become the public norm to take a chance on a younger guy rather than wily veteran. So what does this mean? It means there’s value in drafting a guy with a lower ceiling, but a higher floor.
Cue Chase Utley. Utley had an up and down 2014 that can very simply be cut into two halves:
First Half: 91 games: .293 BA / .345 wOBA / .794 OPS
Second Half: 64 games: .235 BA / .294 wOBA / .674 OPS
Durability has always been the main concern for Utley. Prior to last year, he hadn’t played more than 132 games since 2009. And entering his age 36 season, no one will argue that he’s the same guy that put up MVP numbers in years past. Given his age and injury history, it’s not a huge surprise to see that he struggled in second half of the season. But if we take a closer look, maybe he shouldn’t have played that poorly.
His LD% in the first half was an impressive 25.5% vs. 23.3% in the second half, yet his BABIP imploded from .317 to .261. Such a drop in BABIP makes me think that perhaps Utley was a bit unlucky in the second half last year. As statistical analysts, we usually look at first half numbers to find breakout candidates that will revert to the mean in the second half. We usually don’t look at the second half and think that it could revert to the mean for the following season, because who cares about next year?
So what do we know about Utley? We know that he finally played a full season, and even made some strides at the plate by reducing his K%, increasing his contact percentage, and making better contact on balls in play. We also know that he’s slowly losing his power (hitting only 11 HR last year) and that injuries will always remain a concern. But you know what? There’s a lot more certainty in what we can say about Utley than Arismendy Alcantara, or Javier Baez, Kolten Wong, or a number of other second basemen. There’s value in that.
I would guess that Utley goes undrafted in a number of leagues, but if you find yourself waiting late for a second basemen, don’t be afraid to pull the trigger on Utley, who could replicate his first half numbers and provide great value for the #12 ranked 2B.
