RADIO
Grandal's Potential Makes Him a Sleeper Candidate
Yasmani Grandal was largely a disappointment in 2014. Despite the pedigree of a top prospect and nearly 90 games of experience at the major league level, he batted an anemic .225/.327/.401 with 49 RBIs and 47 runs scored through 128 games. After that campaign, some have written Grandal off as a bust; others still believe in his potential. Grandal's rare combination of power and plate discipline at catcher could make him an interesting player on draft day.
It's easy to forget, but Grandal clubbed 15 home runs in 2014, the 8th highest mark of any catcher in the major leagues. He did this while posting a 13.3% walk rate, itself the second highest mark for any catcher with at least 400 plate appearances in 2014.
These aren't new traits. As a minor leaguer Grandal had a career .487 slugging percentage with two separate seasons of 14 home runs. In fact, it's this power that has led some writers such as Fangraphs' Eno Sarris to compare Grandal favorably to 2014's breakout star: Devin Mesoraco. Grandal's power, of course, isn't as strong a tool as Mesoraco's, but even projection systems like Steamer forecast double digit home runs for the young backstop. With a healthy season, 15-18 home runs is entirely within Grandal's skillset.
The bigger question is Grandal's hit tool. While a high OBP can drive extra runs scored numbers, it's difficult to call anyone a sleeper after they hit .216 and .225 over the last two calendar years. Compounding his batting average struggles, Grandal's strikeout rate ballooned in 2014 to 26%. Potential aside, this is an issue he'll have to get under control if he wants to hit at the same level he did in the minors.
What To Expect in 2015
It is worth remembering that Grandal didn't exactly enter the season at full health. An ACL tear in July 2013 cost Grandal nearly a year of playing time and frankly I have to wonder whether this contributed to his poor start in 2014.
The second point is this: .310/.408/.487. That's Grandal's career batting line as a minor leaguer. Minor league statistics may not may not translate over to the major league levels perfectly, but the underlying skillset that allowed Grandal to hit for high averages at every stop from Bakersfield to Tuscon didn't vanish overnight. If Grandal's strikeouts don't improve over the course of 2015, I may have to readjust this assessment, but I believe a .275-.280 batting average is still possible. This is even more true if his BABIP can rebound from two straight years of career lows.
I have gone this far without mentioning the Dodgers, but they merit bringing up at this point. A.J. Ellis will be 34 next season and the Dodgers did not trade Matt Kemp away for a backup catcher. No matter how you look at it, it's hard not to like the situation Grandal finds himself in next season. He's surrounded by great players who should offer him plenty of RBI and run scoring opportunities. While he remains healthy, Grandal should be as close to a lock as one can get for 140-145 games played.
In Summary
Grandal offers an attractive package on draft day. On a strong Dodgers team, he has the potential to be an impact player for fantasy owners, delivering a blend of power and average which is hard to find outside the top 10 catchers in the game. Yes, bust potential is there, as it is with any true sleeper, but a championship team needs a catcher who can drive in 80 runs with a .275 batting average and 18 home runs. Grandal has the potential to do just that.
