X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Three Overvalued First Basemen: 2014 Fantasy Baseball Rankings

I am excited to bring you the first part of my two day series examining first basemen that I think fantasy baseball analysts and experts are ranking either too high or too low.

Today, we’ll discuss three guys at the position that I think are overrated and should not be drafted as high as they are projected to go.

 

2014 Rankings Analysis - First Base (1B)

 

Chris Davis 

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Originally posted to Flickr as "Chris Davis") [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Most experts have Davis slotted in as the #2 first baseman this year behind Paul Goldschmidt. Sorry, Orioles fans, I’m just not buying the hype.

Davis had a phenomenal, breakout 2013 season, no question about it. But if you had Davis on your team last year and sold high on him, say on July 1st, you would have been extremely pleased with yourself, and likely would have hauled some nice players in return. Let’s look at Davis’ 1st half vs. his 2nd half of the 2013 season.

1st Half:  .315 BA, 37 HR, 93 RBI

2nd Half: .245 BA, 16 HR, 45 RBI

Davis is the perfect regression candidate for 2014. Pitchers figured him out the second half of 2013, and he struggled mightily to adjust. His strikeout rate increased and his insanely high BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) for the first half of the year came back down to earth and evened out, meaning he probably wasn't putting as many quality hits in play.

Of course Davis is an high-end first baseman for any fantasy team. And he could hit a ton of bombs (probably not 50 again) while hitting .280. But it’s far from guaranteed, and he is going as a top 10 pick. For me, that’s simply too high for not-a-sure thing. I would rather have Paul Goldschmidt, Prince Fielder, Joey Votto, Edwin Encarnacion, and maybe even Freddie Freeman as my first baseman before I picked up Davis.  While many would disagree with some of those players being taken ahead of Davis, what you can't disagree with is they are certainly priced more reasonably than Davis is.  Take Davis in the top 10 at your own risk, but don’t be shocked if he doesn’t give you top-10 numbers again.

 

Eric Hosmer

There are many things to like about Hosmer, including his age (he’s only 24). He's kind of like a poor man's Freddie Freeman. He had a very nice all-around 2013 season and one would logically think that his numbers will only get better as he develops into his prime.

However, there’s something about Hosmer that irks me. Perhaps it’s because he’s on the Royals (obviously not his fault). Or maybe it’s because he’s been elevated to just below elite-level status by many fantasy experts, after only one pretty good season (again, not his fault).

This is the thing with Hosmer: He’s going to be a bad value pick in drafts.  Here's what I mean. He is one of the first or second guys of the “second tier” group of first basemen. Given where you will have to pick Hosmer in your draft, I would much rather wait a few rounds and get a guy who will give me very similar production, with maybe a little lower batting average. For instance, give me someone like Mark Teixeira or Justin Morneau (assuming health) in the 12th round instead of Hosmer in the 5th/6th. Those guys could easily hit 30 HRs and hit around .260, which would be perfectly fine with me.  Hosmer, quite simply, does not hit enough fly balls to hit more than 25 HR. His ceiling is 25 HR, compared to other guys who could easily surpass 30.

There’s also not a ton of positions this year that are going to give you guaranteed power. I would recommend trying to get a power guy at your first base spot, and while Hosmer may hit 20 HRs and hit around .300, he’s probably not going to give you the same power numbers as other first baseman, including some that are ranked much lower at the position. I'd rank Adrian Gonzalez and Albert Pujols higher.

 

Brandon Belt

I’ve been hearing for the past three seasons how Brandon Belt is going to be the next big thing.

I’m still waiting.

He had a decent 2013, hitting .289 with 17 HRs. But the Giants lineup never produces a ton of runs and he will always be struggling for plentiful RBI opportunities, especially playing in the pitcher-friendly confines of AT&T Park.  Belt is simply not going to be the 30 HR-per-year slugger many thought he would be when he first came into the league. I believe his ranking by experts of just outside the top 12 is more wishful thinking than anything else.

The fact is Belt's a solid hitter, but his 2013 strikeout rate (21.9%) was significantly higher than his walk rate (9.1%) and his OBP (.360) should be better too. His strikeout rate would be fine if he hit 30+ HRs a year, but he doesn’t.

For fantasy purposes, there are many other options around Belt’s rank that can get you a decent batting average and produce greater power numbers. I'd rank Brandon Moss and Jose Abreu higher than Belt, and both can be had later in the draft.

 

Come back tomorrow for the three first basemen who I think are ranked too low and the guys you can potentially get at a discount come draft day!

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Michael Conforto4 hours ago

Homers, Scores Three Runs
Jace Jung5 hours ago

Hits Home Run No. 2 At Triple-A
Jon Singleton5 hours ago

Signs Minor-League Deal With Mets
Niko Goodrum5 hours ago

Signs Minor-League Deal With Mets
Nick Kurtz5 hours ago

Belts Third Home Run In Last Four Games
Shohei Ohtani5 hours ago

Blasts Walk-Off Home Run
Zac Veen5 hours ago

Triples, Collects Four RBI At Triple-A On Wednesday
Zac Gallen5 hours ago

Strikes Out 13
Luke Waddell6 hours ago

Swinging A Hot Bat At Triple-A
Chandler Simpson6 hours ago

With A Two-Run Triple, Stolen Base On Wednesday
Los Angeles Chargers6 hours ago

Chargers Sign Tight End Jordan Petaia
Austin Gomber7 hours ago

Scratched From Rehab Start With Shoulder Inflammation
Zack Wheeler7 hours ago

Records 10 Strikeouts
7 hours ago

Matthew Golden Making Pre-Draft Visit To Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals7 hours ago

Trey Hendrickson Not Looking For Short-Term Deal
Aroldis Chapman7 hours ago

Earns First Save Of The Season
Garrett Crochet8 hours ago

Works Eight Strong Innings
Tutu Atwell8 hours ago

Rams Plan To Give Tutu Atwell A Bigger Role In 2025
Rafael Devers8 hours ago

Finally Delivers At The Plate
Tampa Bay Buccaneers8 hours ago

Bucs Restructure Antoine Winfield's Deal To Free Up Cap Space
Xavier Edwards8 hours ago

Collects Four Hits
Pete Alonso8 hours ago

Comes Up Clutch
Jackson Merrill10 hours ago

Goes Deep After Inking Nine-Year Extension
Jrue Holiday10 hours ago

Won't Play Against Miami
New York Jets10 hours ago

Xavier Newman-Johnson Re-Signs With New York
Luis Castillo10 hours ago

Finally Beats The Tigers On Wednesday
Al Horford10 hours ago

Sidelined Versus Heat
Seiya Suzuki10 hours ago

Carries Cubs Offense With Two Homers, Five RBI
Kristaps Porzingis10 hours ago

Ruled Out On Wednesday
Fred VanVleet10 hours ago

Out Versus Utah
Dennis Santana10 hours ago

Picks Up First Save Of The Year
Dean Wade11 hours ago

Sidelined On Wednesday
Trae Young11 hours ago

Expected To Suit Up On Wednesday
Joel Embiid11 hours ago

Will Undergo Arthroscopic Surgery On His Left Knee
Evgeni Malkin11 hours ago

Joins Penguins For Road Trip
Filip Chytil11 hours ago

Could Miss Rest Of Season
Declan Chisholm12 hours ago

Back In Action Against Rangers
Keaton Wallace12 hours ago

Sidelined Again On Wednesday
Samuel Girard12 hours ago

Exits Avalanche Lineup Wednesday
Joel Kiviranta12 hours ago

Returning Against Blackhawks
Eeli Tolvanen12 hours ago

Misses First Game Of The Season
Jaden Schwartz12 hours ago

Unavailable Against Canucks
13 hours ago

Kyle McCord Rising Up Draft Boards?
14 hours ago

Ashton Jeanty To Raiders Continues To Gain Steam
14 hours ago

Emeka Egbuka To Fall To Round 2?
Los Angeles Rams14 hours ago

Rob Havenstein Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Cleveland Browns16 hours ago

Mike Hall Likely To Miss Offseason Program After Having Knee Surgery
New England Patriots16 hours ago

Christian Barmore Expected To Be Ready For Offseason Workouts
16 hours ago

Saints Expected To Visit With Quinn Ewers
Jake Moody16 hours ago

49ers To Bring In Competition For Jake Moody
Pittsburgh Steelers16 hours ago

Steelers In Play To Draft A Running Back
Green Bay Packers18 hours ago

Packers Not Ruling Out Jaire Alexander Returning
Tennessee Titans18 hours ago

No. 1 Overall Pick Might Not Be For Sale
Kenny Pickett18 hours ago

Browns Feel Good About QB Situation, Kenny Pickett
Cleveland Browns19 hours ago

Browns Unlikely To Trade Up To No. 1 Overall For Cam Ward
Cincinnati Bengals19 hours ago

Bengals Still Working On Contract Extension With Trey Hendrickson
Dyami Brown19 hours ago

Jaguars Intrigued By Dyami Brown's Potential
Bennedict Mathurin20 hours ago

Iffy For Wednesday
Myles Turner20 hours ago

May Miss Another Game Wednesday
Al Horford20 hours ago

Considered Doubtful Wednesday
Jrue Holiday20 hours ago

Questionable For Wednesday's Game
Kristaps Porzingis20 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Wednesday
Jaylen Brown20 hours ago

Could Remain On The Shelf Wednesday
Cade Cunningham21 hours ago

Likely Out For Fifth Straight Game
Anthony Davis21 hours ago

Probable Wednesday
Evan Bouchard22 hours ago

Tallies Two Assists In Victory
Jake Guentzel22 hours ago

Tallies Goal, Assist In Victory
Kirill Marchenko22 hours ago

Scores Hat Trick On Tuesday
Tage Thompson23 hours ago

Stays Hot On The Scoresheet
Lane Hutson23 hours ago

Dishes Out Three Helpers In Overtime Victory
Alex Ovechkin23 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Victory
Cameron Young1 day ago

A Player To Avoid At Valero Texas Open
Kurt Kitayama1 day ago

In Search Of Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim1 day ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Valero Texas Open
Tom Hoge1 day ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick1 day ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners1 day ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay1 day ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Gary Woodland1 day ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia1 day ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti1 day ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
Guerschon Yabusele1 day ago

Out Against Knicks
Karl-Anthony Towns1 day ago

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Jevon Carter1 day ago

Ruled Out Tuesday
Dalen Terry1 day ago

Unavailable Against Raptors
Julian Phillips1 day ago

Out On Tuesday
Jimmy Snuggerud1 day ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Jacob Trouba1 day ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Troy Terry1 day ago

On Track To Play Tuesday
Jonathan Marchessault1 day ago

Remains Out Against Blue Jackets
Alex Laferriere1 day ago

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Luke Schenn2 days ago

A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Dante Fabbro2 days ago

Returns Against Predators
Olli Määttä2 days ago

Olli Maatta A Game-Time Call On Tuesday
Jordan Spieth2 days ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp2 days ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim2 days ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood2 days ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau2 days ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole2 days ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Sam Stevens2 days ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA2 days ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy2 days ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman2 days ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ryan Preece2 days ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR3 days ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland3 days ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno3 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg3 days ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober3 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall3 days ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara3 days ago

Gets Submitted
Édgar Cháirez3 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales3 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.3 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira3 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez3 days ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas3 days ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez3 days ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron3 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe3 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones3 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry4 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano4 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece4 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney4 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg6 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno6 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres6 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober6 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer6 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum6 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales6 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.6 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira6 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF