RADIO
The PGA Tour makes its way to Japan this week for the first international event of the Fall swing season. 78 players were invited to compete in this no-cut style event for the 2024 ZOZO Championship being held once again at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club on the outskirts of Tokyo.
The host course is spectacular as has several unique elements that make it a true one-of-a-kind on the PGA Tour schedule. The full course breakdown is now live and posted. For this piece, let's break down the 10 players that I feel are best suited for success at this particular course and why.
As always, my primary goal with this article is to give you a place to start your research and preparation for the upcoming week. I have carefully evaluated the field-to-project proper course fits and looked heavily into how players' incoming form has been in the categories that matter the most here. Without further ado, Here are my top 10 Power Rankings for the 2024 ZOZO Championship.
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No. 10 - J.J. Spaun
Another week, another solid performance in the Fall from J.J. Spaun last week at the Shriners Open. Spaun did his thing once again with his irons, and continued to crush it from a Ballstriking perspective. He had to withdraw from the Sanderson Farms, but he's gained strokes both OTT and on Approach in each of his last four starts during this portion of the season.
Spaun also continues to dismantle the par 5's which is somewhat surprising given his below-average distance numbers. If he can continue to score on those holes, it could be the key to unlocking this course in Japan. He should come into this week with plenty of confidence given his recent form and also having recorded a T6 result at the ZOZO Championship in 2023.
No. 9 - Doug Ghim
If you have been following my weekly betting cards which I post on X and in the RotoBaller discord, then you would understand my pain when I pegged another 2nd place finisher. Last week, it was Doug Ghim who broke my heart in Las Vegas as he was unable to take down JT Poston despite making a birdie on the 18th hole to apply the pressure for a potential playoff.
Ghim is the number one ranked player in the field in strokes gained from Tee-To-Green over the last 24 rounds played. He has been slaying the par 4s and has been the 2nd best player in the field when it comes to avoiding bogeys as well. It's hard to come out of nowhere to win this event, and Ghim has been laying the groundwork for a potential incoming win to properly capitalize on his solid recent play.
Doug Ghim hits an excellent approach on 18 to put the pressure on J.T. Poston. 👀🎯
📺 Golf Channel 📱 NBC Sports app | @ShrinersOpen pic.twitter.com/pAJfzGkzOk
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) October 21, 2024
No. 8 - Beau Hossler
Beau Hossler has become quite proficient at securing the T2 finish. He did so a few weeks ago, falling in a playoff to Kevin Yu at the Sanderson Farms, but he also recorded a T2 finish at the 2023 edition of the ZOZO Championship. That said, his finish last year was a bit misleading because he was six strokes behind Collin Morikawa who ultimately won.
Hossler continues to produce good results, which we cannot deny him. His last three starts are a 2nd, T11, and T23 last week at the Shriners Open. Hossler is making a ton of birdies, but he'll need to avoid the untimely errors and bogeys that have plagued him recently and we know that Narashino Country Club is a much more difficult test than the recent tournaments we have seen.
No. 7 - Kurt Kitayama
Kurt Kitayama has been sprinkling down breadcrumbs for bettors to believe that he can win yet another big-time event very soon. He's been flushing it with his approach of late, particularly from the 150-225 yard range which will be huge this week given the length and difficulty of the par 4s at Narashino Country Club. Kitayama has been the 2nd best player in the field from that range over his last 24 rounds played with shotlink data.
Kitayama has played this event in both of the last two seasons, posting T16 and T29 results. On paper, that looks decent but when you factor in the shortened field and low-level talent at the bottom, you'd like to see at least one top 10. That said, he presents a good bit of value this week with his trending form if you can find a betting number greater than 30-1. He was T3 headed into the final round last week.
Kurt Kitayama climbs the leaderboard with five birdies in his last six holes. 👀
📺 Golf Channel 📱 NBC Sports App | @ShrinersOpen pic.twitter.com/1nGE8xDPa0
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) October 20, 2024
No. 6. Sahith Theegala
This admittedly feels a bit low for Sahith Theegala's ranking this week, but I just don't love this spot for him. He was able to finish T5 here back in 2022, but many of the attributes that this course rewards on average are just not what Theegala does well. He ranks 58th in a field of 78 in SG: Approach from 150-225 yards. He's also in the bottom half of the field in Bentgrass putting.
I was not particularly impressed with the way he played at the Presidents Cup, but I suppose you could chalk that up to first-timer nerves. Is he one of the five best players in this field? Yes. Is he one of the five best players for this course? I don't believe so, and the analytics would back me up on that.
No. 5 - Justin Thomas
Make room for Justin Thomas back on the top of leaderboards in 2025 and I think this week could be a great kickstart for that programming. I think this is a good course fit for Thomas who tends to find himself in trouble on courses that demand driving accuracy. I think the fairways are generous enough here that he can get away with spraying it around, as long as he packs his elite-at-times iron play.
Thomas hits that ball plenty far, and I have to believe that a player of his caliber sees some positive regression in his iron play coming soon. When he is on, he is fearless and a shotmaker. My gut says we get a fully focused JT this week as he has the chance to show the world that all of his off-season work is ready to put him in a position to again be one of the best in the world.
⛳️🏌🏻♂️☝️ #ACE — Justin Thomas took to Instagram to share that he’s grinding this off season and even recorded his first ace at Panther National. @JTLegion_
(Via: @JustinThomas34) pic.twitter.com/RQXQuCPtNY
— NUCLR GOLF (@NUCLRGOLF) October 17, 2024
No. 4 - Sungjae Im
It's been over three years since Sungjae Im's last PGA Tour victory, and it feels like we are long overdue. Im struggled with his game through the majority of last season, before finally rekindling some form just before the Tour Championship. I thought he looked sharp at the Presidents Cup and he has posted T11 and 7th place results in his previous two starts before that.
Im makes a ton of birdies and he's the type of player that can take the hardest hole on the golf course and turn it into a scoring opportunity. I worry sometimes about his aggressiveness in key moments, but I think that goes hand in hand with his form. Everything is trending in the right direction and he's been great at this tournament in the past. This could be the week we see him back in the winner's circle, quite literally. Have you seen the trophy?
No. 3 - Hideki Matsuyama
When this event was first held here in 2019, it was the first time a PGA Tour event was ever played in Japan. In a nation with a rich and extensive golfing culture, the dominant figure was and is Hideki Matsuyama. He was runner-up in that first year to Tiger Woods, before ultimately prevailing in front of his home nation in 2021 as Champion.
We know what Matsuyama does. He's one of the most elite Ballstrikers ever, and when he's on, he can access pins that are unimaginable for mortals. His incoming form has been solid as well. I thought he looked great at the Presidents Cup and he ranks 2nd in the field in strokes gained Tee-To-Green over the last 24 rounds. Who could forget this majestic shot? It's one of the best I have ever seen given the circumstances.
Zozo Championship winner Hideki Matsuyama is a great example— Fairway woods require great lower-body action to be successful. pic.twitter.com/2sT4HWyoi2
— PGA of America (@PGA) October 26, 2021
No. 2 - Collin Morikawa
Since winning the 2023 ZOZO Championship, Collin Morikawa has posted seven top 5 finishes without capturing another victory. He'll be right at home at Narashino Country Club where he won this event going away last year by six shots. Morikawa had been struggling a bit at the time, but that is no longer the case this year. He's back to being one of the best iron players on the planet, gaining strokes on approach in nine of his last ten starts.
You don't have to worry about him missing fairways and ending up in the trees as Morikawa is one of the most accurate players in the field. He appears to be in phenomenal form and primed once again to defend his championship in Japan where he feels added incentive given his family lineage. He's the top-rated player in my mixed stat model this week.
No. 1 - Xander Schauffele
I said many times last year, Xander Schauffele put together a season for the ages that was a bit overshadowed by one of the best all-time when it came to Scottie Scheffler's 2024 season. Schauffele comes into this week off winning two of the last three Major Championships and playing a massive role in the Team USA victory a few weeks ago at the Presidents Cup.
Schaffele simply doesn't have a weakness. He is such a well-balanced player from tee to green and then he combines that with his ability as the best pure Bentgrass putter in the field this week. His odds are a ridiculous +350 to win this week, but given his form, this may actually hold some value in this limited-field no-cut event. He brought the Jug to Japan with hopes of adding yet another trophy to his mantle this season in what will likely be his last tournament of 2024!
ZOZO Championship week is here! 🇯🇵
Xander Schauffele is at Narashino Country Club, wrapping up 2024 after 2 major wins and a key role in a Presidents Cup victory.
Starts Wednesday evening in the USA. The Claret Jug is there, exactly 3 months since his win at Troon. Let’s go! pic.twitter.com/OaSSLdRFza
— Xander Schauffele Legion (@XanderLegion) October 21, 2024
Enjoy the ZOZO Championship and thanks for reading! Good luck, RotoBaller family!
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