RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~130 pick
CURRENT ADP: ~149 overall
ANALYSIS: The Chicago White Sox have it all on paper: multiple aces in their starting rotation, an elite bullpen headlined by multiple closer-caliber arms, and a lineup filled with premier hitters. After a breakout in 2019, Moncada was supposed to be one of those premier hitters in 2020, and it just didn't happen. However, last year was a positive rebound in some respects and could hint at Moncada being a reliable bat after all.
In '19, he set career-highs in all the major statistical categories: runs, home runs, RBIs, batting average, and slugging percentage. He also dropped his K-rate below 32 percent for the first time, all the way to 27.5 percent. A shortened '20 saw a return to his bad habits, making it seem like '19 was the outlier. But last season, Moncada was even better in certain key categories. His K-rate dropped again, to a career-best 25.5 percent. His walk rate was also career-best at 13.6 percent. The power and speed numbers weren't there to showcase a desirable fantasy line, but that may have just been some bad luck. Moncada still posted an average exit velocity over 90 mph and a 40.5 percent hard-hit rate. A much-improved batting eye, combined with quality contact, will lead to more power numbers this season.
As for the steals, they probably aren't coming back. He still posts well-above-average sprint speed, though the figure has been dropping for years. He just rarely attempts to run, to begin with. It may have a lot to do with the lineup around him. Chicago as a whole was 25th in the league in attempted steals last season after ranking 24th the season prior. The last time Moncada ran even a little bit, that '19 season, the White Sox ranked 19th. It has never been a priority, and you can understand. With all the bats in the lineup, they don't want to give away outs. Moncada should bat in the middle of the Sox order and produce in four categories.
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