RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 350
CURRENT ADP: ~372 overall
ANALYSIS: The 30-year-old has been incredibly solid the last two seasons and was dominant in the shortened 2020 campaign, pitching to a 0.60 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP with an 11.40 K/9 and 23.3 K-BB% across 15 innings. While 15 innings wasn't enough to qualify him for the Statcast leaderboard, his .198 xBA, .315 xSLG, and 5.6% barrel rate allowed are all strong indicators of deserved results.
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I know it's a small sample size, but I believe the metrics and imaging back it up. When you pair that with a curveball that has very similar observed movement to the slider but is actually five MPH slower and drops 12 inches more, you can see how Garcia has an effectively deceptive pitch mix. As a result, I think people are drastically undercutting his K/9 by thinking it drops from 11.40 down to something in the low 9s, as many sites are predicting. I believe Garcia can carry a K/9 above 10 and pair that with an ERA in the mid-3s while also being a legitimate contender to beat out Anthony Bass (and his career 4.32 ERA and 16.9 K%) for the Marlins' closer job for the Marlins. In the end, it wouldn't surprise me if Garcia grabbed 15+ saves and earned tremendous value at his current ADP.
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