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Last week I said Las Vegas Motor Speedway was among the most important races of the playoffs. The same could be said for Sunday's Cup Series event at Talladega Superspeedway.
Oh yes, that Talladega. The same 200 mph chess match that often creates chaos and could put select drivers in a "must-win scenario" at the Charlotte ROVAL, the final race in the Round of 12.
Based on recent trends at superspeedway races, expect the unexpected. You'll likely see many of the favorites (Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, etc.) lead laps, but could see their car become a casualty to that race. Why? Lately the infamous "Big One" has started at the front of the field. When that happens, buckle up because it's going to be a ride just to get through the carnage.
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Ryan Blaney
(DraftKings $10,700 | FanDuel $12,500 | DK SportsBook +1000)
In recent years, Ford Performance has dominated Talladega. Dating back to the fall 2015 races, the Blue Oval has won 10 of the last 12 races on the 2.66-mile layout. That would be impressive at any racetrack, let alone Talladega.
Of those 10 race wins, eight have come from the current Team Penske trio (Joey Logano 3; Brad Keselowski 3; Ryan Blaney 2). Quite frankly, you can't go wrong with any of these drivers, but this weekend I like Blaney the most.
Not only did Blaney win the most recent superspeedway race at Daytona, but the No. 12 team has won two of the last four Talladega races. He's also led at least 10 laps per race in that same timeframe. The one potential downside is Blaney starting from fourth; with carnage expected to happen, he'll need to avoid it for your fantasy team to be successful -- and his.
William Byron
(DraftKings $9,800 | FanDuel $12,000 | DK SportsBook +1100)
So many people believe superspeedway racing is about luck. But if that's the case, why are so many of the same drivers running up front -- and winning -- these races?
William Byron hasn't broken through to victory lane at Talladega yet, he's put together an impressive recent streak. The No. 24 team enters the race with consecutive top-five results at the superspeedway, and having led at least 11 laps (no more than 13) in three of the last four Talladega races. Let's not forget, Byron picked up his first Cup victory at Daytona in August 2020.
Superspeedway racing was one of Byron's bright spots over his first three years in the Cup Series. Now that he's added to his repertoire, he's expected to run up front at Talladega. Had it not been for Matt DiBenedetto throwing a big block last fall, the No. 24 car could have wound up in victory lane.
Justin Haley
(DraftKings $9,400 | FanDuel $7,700 | DK SportsBook +3000)
Throughout this season, Justin Haley has been a longshot during Cup events. But much of that is because he's gaining experience and is doing what's been asked of him at Spire Motorsports, a team on the rise. But this weekend running for Kaulig Racing, Haley's popular among bettors.
Rightfully so. Haley has proved in the Xfinity Series that he is elite on superspeedways. Since scoring his first victory last June at Talladega, Haley has won four of the last six Xfinity races contested on superspeedways, including Daytona at the end of August.
It's no surprise Haley is pricey this weekend. And by starting 38th, that only adds fuel to the fire. If you want a potential upset for the win, bet on Haley's 30-1 odds; he finished sixth in the Cup race at Daytona five weeks ago.
Aric Almirola
(DraftKings $9,200 | FanDuel $10,800 | DK SportsBook +2200)
Aside from an upset win at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in mid-July, Aric Almirola has had a year to forget in the prime of his career. A driver that's made the playoffs the last four years (including 2021) has just a trio of top-10 finishes to his name this season. Yikes.
That's no indicative of Almirola's talent, rather what Stewart-Haas Racing has given him to work with this season. From the get go, the team was behind this year and hasn't caught up. It's hard to believe it will with just six races left in the season.
But Almirola has always stood out on superspeedways. He won at Talladega three years ago, has a win at Daytona and has a victory at each track in the Xfinity Series. Starting 20th, Almirola is a solid choice for your lineup this week, despite betting sites knowing that (thus is why he's rather expensive).
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Brad Keselowski
(DraftKings $8,600 | FanDuel $10,000| DK SportsBook +1200)
Did you get sick of hearing me bloat about Team Penske's success earlier? Well, it's time for more: That's how good they are on superspeedways.
Most notably, Keselowski is great at Talladega. Not only did he win his first career race at the track for Phoenix Racing, but he won the most recent race too. Entering the race weekend, Keselowski has a totla of six wins at Talladega, and is tied with Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr. for second on the track's list, only behind Dale Earnhardt's 10.
By no means has the 2012 champion had a season he's accustomed to having, but he's among the greats at Talladega. A win this weekend -- he led just one lap in the spring race and won -- would guarantee him a spot in the Round of 8. That would give him a fighter's chance of making it to Phoenix.
Joey Logano
(DraftKings $7,900 | FanDuel $13,000 | DK SportsBook +1000)
Want more reasons to feature Team Penske? Man, these guys are good at superspeedway racing. And in the last three years, Joey Logano has led a lot of laps, though can't get rightful results. Hey, it's racing.
In the seven superspeedway races that have been held since the beginning of the 2020 season, Logano has led 193 laps. However, he's been running at the end just once (Daytona in August), and even then was one lap down from a late-race blown tire.
One thing is for certain, Logano will maneuver his racecar unlike most other drivers will. If he gets out front, the No. 22 Ford will block lanes from bottom to top. As a spectator, it's fun to watch. But lately, it hasn't worked out at the end of superspeedway races. Logano is due for a good finish at Talladega.
Corey LaJoie
(DraftKings $6,900 | FanDuel $4,000 | DK SportsBook +6000)
I remember writing ahead of the Daytona race in August about Corey LaJoie's results on superspeedway: They're solid. All four of his top-10 finishes at the Cup level have come at either Daytona or Talladega.
In those races, though, he salvaged a good day by hanging out at the rear of the draft and avoiding the crashes. What was more impressive is what he did in August at Daytona, despite finishing 16th. Hell, he even went up and made a pass for the lead during Stage 2.
At Daytona, LaJoie ran up front all night and had a realistic shot of winning the race in overtime. Unfortunately for the No. 7 team, he was caught up in a late-race accident. He may not run up front this time as he'll likely be running a "B motor," but that could bode well in the result column. LaJoie's a solid choice, starting 29th.
Bubba Wallace
(DraftKings $5,900 | FanDuel $11,500 | DK SportsBook +2500)
The range Bubba Wallace covers between DraftKings and FanDuel is quite unique. On DraftKings, the No. 23 car is a sure bet to be on your fantasy team, sitting at just $5,900. That's a steal! But on FanDuel he's listed at $11,500, which is expensive.
Over the years, Wallace has had many standout runs on superspeedways, specifically Talladega. While his results are better at Daytona, the Alabama native has led 33 laps at Daytona, 16 of which came in the spring race.
What also lies on Wallace's side is his team owner, Hamlin. Already being locked into the Round of 8, there might be an extra incentive of pushing the No. 23 Toyota to its first win. That would make for quite the team picture on Monday.
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