2023 Fantasy Baseball Year-in-Review: Corey Seager

When the new MLB rules became official last offseason, it was hard to find a fantasy baseball enthusiast who didn’t love Corey Seager as a prime beneficiary of the shift ban, and why wouldn't they?

Entering 2023, he had a year under his belt in Arlington after signing that big contract. Also, he pretty much always pulls the ball and was therefore shifted upon 93% of the time in '22. The Texas All-Star could’ve had an OPS around .840 based on 26 occasions where he made solid contact and was out only because of the shift.

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In 2023, Seager demolished most analysts’ assumptions, which was the best full season by any SS of all time. This bold claim is debatable, but you can’t deny that he put the team on his back by smashing 27 dingers in the second half, including three in the World Series, earning his second World Series MVP and bringing the first-ever title to Arlington! It was truly an epic finish to a phenomenal season. This article will break it down and provide insight into what we should expect for the star in 2024.

Corey Seager's 2023 Campaign in Review

Including 66 postseason at-bats, Seager finished with 106 runs, 108 RBI, 39 HR, and 48 doubles in 136 total games. This means if he finds the elixir of life or hires the same personal trainer as his double-play partner (Marcus Semien), his 2024 ceiling at this pace is 126 runs, 129 RBI, 46 HR, and 57 doubles while batting .326 with an OPS well over 1.000.

Looking back to last year, Seager matched his 2022 HR total of 33 despite making 127 fewer plate appearances. He raised his wOBA by 88 points, and his triple slash line went from .245/.317/.455 way up to .327/.390/.623 -- good for an OPS over 1.000 and an absolute steal in the fourth round, where he was being picked in most standard redraft leagues.

The ridiculous, video game create-a-player kind of numbers mentioned before would surely make him an AL MVP front-runner -- but can he really reach this high ceiling? Some optimism that he can get there is that he was delirious on the biggest stage except for Game 2, where the whole Rangers lineup didn't show up. Look at how he dismantled the Diamondbacks!

It’s certainly possible but improbable for the Texas shortstop to set new career highs across the board for a few reasons. Firstly, he’s exceeded 600 PA only three times in his career. Even if he isn’t pitched around often in ‘24 as he should be, not even The Sultan of Swat could escape the law of averages via inevitable slumps. However, you’re mistaken if you think he won’t keep many of his Statcast numbers in the red to exceed the current 2024 projections.

Looking Ahead

After taking the average of RotoBaller's projection data with that of FanGraphs and FantasyPros, Seager's numbers next year look to be around .290/.362/.520, .882 OPS, 30 HR, 90 RBI, 94 runs, and two SBs. As I said earlier, his 162-game pace in 2023 featured significantly higher stats, so these experts are factoring in regression due to league adjustment and baseball gods bringing the 30-year-old back down to Earth.

Even still, we mustn’t forget that Seager was runner-up for AL MVP despite playing only 119 games. He’s a lifetime .292/.361/.512 with the upside of exceeding a .300 AVG, .900 OPS, and 40 HR with the momentum from his stellar 2023 campaign. Since the Rangers’ lineup is so stacked, he has a realistic chance to exceed 100 runs and/or RBI hitting in the two-hole every game between Marcus Semien and Evan Carter.

The only reason why someone would pass on this stud as their late first-round pick is due to his lack of speed (23rd percentile), but he will be ranked as a top-20 player in your draft boards this spring and might finish 2024 ranked in the top 10 if he stays healthy all year. Consider yourself lucky if he falls to you late in the second round!