X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Yardage Regression Candidates - Wide Receiver

Receiving yards are the bread and butter of fantasy football wide receivers. Antonio Losada looks at four WR who could be due for regression in 2020.

While touchdowns are the most coveted play outcome for wide receivers in fantasy football, total receiving yards must be taken into serious consideration when deciding who to draft for the position. It is true that receivers have to work harder to rack up yards, and that they don't have an overly great value at only one point per 10 receiving yards, but the volume of yards per game WRs gain is much higher than the number of touchdowns they score and much more reliable.

It comes down to simple math. Consider Julio Jones. He finished 2019 with 92.9 yards per game. He scored 6 TD in 15 games. So he averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game thanks to receiving yards, and 2.4 fantasy points per game thanks to his TDs. At the end of the season, he had a total of 139.4 points due to receiving yardage, and 36 points due to his touchdowns. So yes, yards account for more than touchdowns in the long run. And that's why we're always on the look for highly-targeted receivers awarded the most possible chances to catch passes and put up as many yards as possible.

Here, I'm taking a look at some of the best wide receivers from the 2019 season due to regress in 2020 in terms of their receiving yards. Don't be fooled by the high numbers they put up last year because a few slumps could be coming!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

John Brown, Buffalo Bills

1,060 yards in 2019

There are many reasons to think Brown's production will go down in 2020. First of all, and perhaps the one impacting his upside the most, is the addition of Stefon Diggs to the Bills receiving corps. Diggs will become the no. 1 receiver of the team from Week 1, no doubts about it, and he should command at least 100 targets over the year. With targets come receptions, and with receptions come yards, so that's the first hit Brown will suffer.

To that it should be added that Brown ranked 13th in Air Yards per Target last season, making him a reasonably deep threat while still getting 26% of the Brown's target share. That percentage of targets going his way ranked as the seventh-highest in the league. You would expect no. 1 receivers to be used all around the field, on both possession- and deep-throws, but Brown buckled that trend. Entering 2020 and given how he's proved to be productive with that long-pass profile, he will be used even more on deep throws with Diggs probably more of a safety valve along with Cole Beasley.

That should help Brown rack up yards, sure, but the problem is that deep throws are harder to catch and doesn't succeed that often. On top of that, Brown only averaged a paltry 2.8 YAC (90th-best), so it's not a sure thing that he'd add many more yards even when he catches the ball. Hardly ever two receivers from the same team reach 1,000+ yards on the same season, and all odds are Diggs will be the one from Buffalo to break that mark over Brown in 2020.

 

DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins

1,202 yards in 2019

I've been DeVante Parker's no. 1 stan since the day he was drafted. That being said, I was starting to get a little antsy about his career and production. Last season marked Parker's fifth in the NFL and not once before 2019 had he reached even 750 yards. Be it because of injuries, bad play, bad teammates, or whatever you want to link that to, he just had not played to the level of a former first-round pick (2015's 14th-overall). Then, 2019 happened.

Last season, Parker finally had the career-year we had been waiting for so long. He finished with 1,200+ yards, caught all of 72 passes on 128 targets and scored a monster 9 TDs. He was, simply put, the WR1 we all hoped for since the early days. His 246.2 PPR over the year were x1.6 times his second-best mark (154.4 in 2016) and made him the WR11 of 2019. Now, you know what they say: never draft a player for your fantasy team after he has a career-season. That corolary can be more than true for Parker in 2020.

Miami will feature either a boom/bust QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick (it worked well for Parker last season, though) or a rookie in Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins have also added Matt Breida and Jordan Howard to the offense (they should get around 50 targets combined), will have a second-year Preston Williams demanding more targets after a good rookie season in which he missed all of eight games, and they'll also play Mike Gisicki at the TE position (he seems to be on an upward trend too). Even if Parker somehow plays great football again, the slightest regression to the mean would make him a 1,000-yard player at most in the best of cases.

 

A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans

1,051 yards in 2019

Brown's rookie season was absolutely insane, pretty much as the Titans' run as a whole. Who would have said that Tennessee would end giving up on Marcus Mariota in favor of veteran Ryan Tannehill and come out on the winning side of things? Before Tannehill took over the starting role at QB, Brown only had one game of 100 yards (Week 1) and five below that mark leading up to Week 7. From Week 7 to Week 17 he racked up monster games breaking the 100-yard mark four times. What I'm saying, trusting Brown to repeat on a 1,000-yard season is to trust Ryan Tannehill elevating him to those heights again.

Not only did Tannehill played an impressive second half of the season, but Brown himself couldn't have been more efficient and make the most of his chances. While Brown was targeted only 84 times, he still was able to reach more than 1,000 yards--and as a rookie, no less. His 20.2 Y/R ranked second only to Mike Williams' 20.4 among WRs targeted at least 75 times. Brown also led the league in Y/Tgt with 12.5 among that same group of players.

The problem with Brown's outcomes, though, is the outlier-nature of them. He averaged 8.9 YAC per reception, obviously no. 1 in the NFL among wideouts and only second to Austin Ekeler (10.2) league-wide. Deebo Samuel finished second with 8.3 but you have to go all the way down to 7.1 YAC/R to find the next pass-catcher (TE Geroge Kittle). While a full season under Tannehill could do Brown well, I'm hesitant he will reach such an impossible level of efficiency once more, thus losing yardage over the 2020 season.

 

Chris Godwin & Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1,333 & 1,157 yards in 2019

Let me give you a two-for-one here. These are all WR1-WR2 teammate pairs to reach 1,150+ yards on the same season since 2015: Robert Woods & Brandin Cooks in 2018, Antonio Brown & JuJu Smith Schuster in 2018, and Chris Godwin & Mike Evans in 2019. That's correct, all three of them. And you're telling me our friends Chris and Mike will go on to do it again in 2020? Let's be real for a minute here, folks.

Having two such booming receivers in a single season, at the same time, is just a once-in-a-lifetime occurrence. The stars must align for it to happen. You need to have two studs at the position, feed them a lot of targets, pray for an overly-efficient play coming from them and have either a top-tier quarterback on a career year or a booming one (like Jameis Winston) airing the ball out without any remorse.

There is a chance at least one of Godwin or Evans reach 1,300+ yards again, but I'm highly hesitant both will go on to rack up more than 1,100 once more. Tampa has brought Tom Brady to man the QB position and he's nothing close to Winston when it comes to the passing game. The Bucs have also added TE Rob Grownkoiski and he should command tons of targets next season, plus (perhaps) OJ Howard will also be deployed at the tight end position and get some yards himself. The combination of cautious QB + clogged offense + historical performance in 2019 wants to tell me at least one of these two will lose yards in 2020.

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Shane Baz33 mins ago

Strikes Out 10
Mike Tauchman47 mins ago

Begins Rehab Assignment
Wyatt Langford58 mins ago

Launches Another Homer
Nathan Eovaldi1 hour ago

Throws Complete Game Shutout
Michael Petersen1 hour ago

Traded To Atlanta
Matt Fitzpatrick1 hour ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners2 hours ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay2 hours ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Reynaldo López2 hours ago

Reynaldo Lopez To Undergo Right-Shoulder Surgery
Gary Woodland2 hours ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia2 hours ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti2 hours ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
NFL2 hours ago

Tush Push Unlikely To Be Banned For 2025 Season
Xavier Legette3 hours ago

Dave Canales Compares Xavier Legette To DK Metcalf
Brett de Geus3 hours ago

Phillies Claim Brett de Geus Off Waivers From Marlins
New York Giants3 hours ago

Ty Summers Re-Signs With New York
Nick Mears3 hours ago

Beginning Rehab Assignment At Triple-A
Aaron Civale3 hours ago

Plays Catch On Tuesday
Masataka Yoshida3 hours ago

Resumes Swinging
Sam Ehlinger3 hours ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Denver
Liam Hendriks3 hours ago

Resumes Throwing
Guerschon Yabusele3 hours ago

Out Against Knicks
Kutter Crawford3 hours ago

Hasn't Faced Hitters
Karl-Anthony Towns3 hours ago

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Arizona Cardinals3 hours ago

Calais Campbell Returns To Arizona
Lucas Giolito3 hours ago

To Make A Rehab Start On Wednesday
Jevon Carter3 hours ago

Ruled Out Tuesday
Dalen Terry4 hours ago

Unavailable Against Raptors
Brayan Bello4 hours ago

To Make Rehab Start On Tuesday
Julian Phillips4 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Alexis Díaz4 hours ago

Alexis Diaz Throws Live BP On Tuesday
Jalen Smith4 hours ago

Available Against Raptors
Max Scherzer4 hours ago

Day-To-Day After Getting Cortisone Shot
Lonzo Ball4 hours ago

Still Out On Tuesday
Freddie Freeman4 hours ago

Likely Out Until Friday
Kevin Huerter4 hours ago

Cleared For Tuesday's Matchup
Willson Contreras4 hours ago

Taking First Day Off
Josh Giddey4 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Dalano Banton4 hours ago

Starting Against The Hawks
Royce O'Neale4 hours ago

Unavailable Against Bucks
Jerami Grant4 hours ago

Out Again On Tuesday
Bradley Beal4 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Ron Holland II4 hours ago

Tagged With A One-Game Suspension Tuesday
Anfernee Simons4 hours ago

Ruled Out Versus The Hawks
Trae Young4 hours ago

Officially Available Tuesday
Marcus Sasser5 hours ago

Suspended For One Game On Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo5 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Jimmy Snuggerud5 hours ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Edouard Julien5 hours ago

Making First Start Of The Season
Isaiah Stewart5 hours ago

Suspended For Two Games On Tuesday
Jacob Trouba5 hours ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Jonathan Kuminga5 hours ago

Ruled Out On Tuesday
Troy Terry5 hours ago

On Track To Play Tuesday
Dylan Crews5 hours ago

Not Starting Against Blue Jays
Jaylen Brown5 hours ago

Questionable Versus Miami
Jonathan Marchessault5 hours ago

Remains Out Against Blue Jackets
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.5 hours ago

Sitting Out In New York
Alex Laferriere5 hours ago

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Luke Schenn5 hours ago

A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Dante Fabbro5 hours ago

Returns Against Predators
Detroit Lions8 hours ago

Alim McNeill Could Miss Start Of Regular Season
Tennessee Titans8 hours ago

Justin Hardee Sr. Returning To Titans
Washington Commanders8 hours ago

Brandon Coleman Moving To Right Tackle For Commanders
Raheem Blackshear8 hours ago

Returning To Carolina
Kirk Cousins8 hours ago

Not Expected To Attend Voluntary Offseason Training
NFL8 hours ago

NFL Ownership Votes To Move Kickoff Touchbacks To 35-Yard Line
Olli Määttä8 hours ago

Olli Maatta A Game-Time Call On Tuesday
Jordan Greenway9 hours ago

Remains Sidelined On Tuesday
Dallas Cowboys9 hours ago

Cowboys Willing To Make Micah Parsons The Highest-Paid Non-QB
Jordan Staal9 hours ago

Doubtful For Wednesday
Matt Roy9 hours ago

Not Traveling With Team
Geno Smith9 hours ago

Raiders Working On Extension With Geno Smith
Chris Godwin9 hours ago

Buccaneers Optimistic Chris Godwin Will Be Ready For Week 1
Josh Norris9 hours ago

Not Traveling With The Team On Tuesday
Los Angeles Rams9 hours ago

Coleman Shelton Expected To Start Again In 2025
Brady Tkachuk9 hours ago

Not Playing On Tuesday
Los Angeles Rams9 hours ago

Rams Open To Drafting A Quarterback
Kyren Williams9 hours ago

Rams To Discuss Long-Term Deal With Kyren Williams
Aaron Rodgers9 hours ago

Signs "Pointing" Toward Aaron Rodgers Signing With Steelers
Brock Purdy10 hours ago

49ers Optimistic On Getting Extension Done With Brock Purdy
Jordan Spieth11 hours ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp11 hours ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim11 hours ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood11 hours ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau12 hours ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole12 hours ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Casey DeSmith15 hours ago

Sharp In Monday's Victory
Mason Marchment15 hours ago

Tallies Two Helpers On Monday
Adam Klapka16 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Shootout Victory
Ivan Fedotov16 hours ago

Sharp Against Nashville
Matvei Michkov16 hours ago

Continues Hot Stretch On Monday
Luke Hughes16 hours ago

Scores Goal, Adds Assist In Victory
Sam Stevens1 day ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA1 day ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy1 day ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman1 day ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ilya Samsonov1 day ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Tomas Hertl1 day ago

To Sit Out At Least One More Week
Ryan Preece1 day ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR1 day ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland1 day ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno1 day ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg1 day ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober1 day ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres1 day ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall1 day ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
Denver Broncos1 day ago

Denver To Take A Running Back In The Draft
CJ Vergara1 day ago

Gets Submitted
Ryan Fox1 day ago

Showing Improvement Heading Into The Valero Texas Open
Édgar Cháirez1 day ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Courtland Sutton1 day ago

"No Timeline" On Courtland Sutton Extension
Vince Morales1 day ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.1 day ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira1 day ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez1 day ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas1 day ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez1 day ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Joel Dahmen1 day ago

Scores Top-20 Finish At Texas Children's Houston Open
Jacob Bridgeman1 day ago

Had Some Rest Heading Into The Valero
Sami Valimaki1 day ago

Finishes Fourth At Texas Children's Houston Open
Christopher Bell1 day ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott1 day ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson1 day ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron1 day ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano1 day ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs2 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain2 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe2 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones2 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry3 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg4 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno4 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres4 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober4 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer4 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum4 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales4 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.4 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira4 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Three Aging Fantasy Football Players To Sell In Dynasty Leagues

It's hard to always know when to sell off your aging fantasy football players. Often, it's also difficult to accept that it's better to move on from a player when he's coming off a productive season and still has a lot left in the tank. But I believe it's better to be a year early […]


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Draft Sleepers

Five Fantasy Football Superflex Quarterback Breakouts, Draft Targets (2025)

If you’ve ever played in a Superflex fantasy football league, then you know how important quarterbacks are in this format. The ability to start multiple stud quarterbacks can carry you to a Superflex title. Unfortunately, finding two such players isn’t so easy. All the top signal-callers come off draft boards first, and that makes it […]


Omarion Hampton - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Ideal Landing Spots For The Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies - 2025 NFL Draft

Then, the NFL Draft continues to inch closer and closer. This is a very interesting class, with a handful of players who could be stars in the NFL and reshape fantasy football leagues going forward. Here are the ideal landing spots for the top 12 fantasy football rookies. These picks exist in conversation with each […]


Jalen Coker - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Eight Best Ball Late Round Value Fantasy Football Players To Target For 2025

Fantasy football is the most popular game in all of sports. It has gone from a paper-and-pen game to a multi-million dollar-a-year one. While redraft leagues are the most popular form of fantasy football, best ball leagues are quickly gaining steam. The best part of best ball leagues is the ability to draft thousands of […]


Abdul Carter - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 10 Fantasy Football Edge Rusher Prospects

Edge rusher is the most important, most coveted, and most highly-paid position on defense in the NFL. It stands to reason that the most important position in the entire game being quarterback, and by a wide margin, means the most important position on defense are the players that are tasked with disrupting opposing QBs as […]


Brock Purdy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Brock Purdy Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook and Trade Value

Despite becoming the all-time leading passer for the Iowa State Cyclones, Brock Purdy wasn't a highly touted prospect due to his perceived lack of athleticism. The 49ers picked him with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, but Mr. Irrelevant quickly proved everyone wrong. In his first two years, he started in back-to-back NFC […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: Scouting NFL Draft Prospects!

Michael F Florio goes over some of the top prospects from this years NFL Draft. Florio talks about what he looks for when watching prospect tape and explains what traits translate best to the NFL level. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel 87) on Sundays from 6-7 am. You can […]


Najee Harris - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Dynasty Fantasy Football Buy or Sell: Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, Jordan Mason

One year ago, we discussed the futures of Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Aaron Jones as those free agents found new homes. This year's headliners are Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, and Jordan Mason. Not quite the same. Still, with every transaction come implications for dynasty fantasy football rosters across the globe. Below, we […]


Romeo Doubs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Early 2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Undervalued NFC Draft Targets

While the 2025 fantasy football redraft season is still several months away, there is no such thing as being too prepared for your fantasy draft. Fantasy football is year-round, even for those who only play in redraft leagues. The landscape of fantasy football will change between today and the start of redraft season, with the […]


Detroit Lions Defense, Aidan Hutchinson - Fantasy Football DST Rankings, Streamers, IDP Sleepers

2025 Fantasy Football IDP Sleepers: Five Draft Targets

It's notably difficult to identify sleepers in fantasy football IDP leagues. The skill of the players in question is very important, but situation also plays a large factor, as does a recent history of injuries. Rather than bucketing them into groups, it's better to analyze each one individually, look at where they are in terms […]


Ashton Jeanty - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

Ashton Jeanty's Top Potential Landing Spots For 2025: Fantasy Football NFL Draft Outlook

Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty will enter the 2025 NFL Draft as one of the best prospects in the class. Jeanty just ran for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns across 14 games this past college season. Those 2,601 rush yards were the second-most of all-time in FBS history, only behind Barry Sanders's 2,628 rush yards […]


Bhaysul Tuten - NFL Draft Prospects, Rookie Rankings

2025 Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Single QB

The 2025 NFL Combine has now been completed, so it's worth doing another mock draft to see where everyone stands after the league's pre-draft testing event. Overall, there were a few surprises, but the order of many players will remain the same. The mental domain of the original rankings, which have been fairly set in […]


Rashid Shaheed - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Later-Career Breakout Candidates

Typically, most NFL players break out in the early parts of their careers. Between the ages of 20 and 25 is when you expect to see the majority of players have their first big season. Some waste no time and put together excellent years while they're rookies, while some need more time to develop. These […]