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The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Martinsville on Sunday for the final race of the Round of 8. There's one more chance for some drivers to win or point their way into the Championship 4 next week. Who will it be?
Joey Logano is locked in, while seven other drivers remain in the hunt: Ross Chastain, Chase Elliott and William Byron would currently have the spots on points, but Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe are in the hunt, though the latter three likely need a win to get there.
Below are my NASCAR DFS lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel this week. This slate locks on 10/30/22 at 2:06 p.m. ET. If you have any questions or want to talk about NASCAR, you can find me on Twitter at @juscarts.
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DFS Lineup Picks - DraftKings, FanDuel
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Kyle Larson
Starts 1st - DraftKings $11,700 | FanDuel $10,000
One thing we learned when the Cup Series first came here is that this new car doesn't like to pass at Martinsville, which is why you're going to see fewer big place differential swings in this article than usual, with no drivers starting in the 30s.
There are 500 laps here, so that means more laps led and fastest lap points are available than usual, making it more important this weekend to pick a driver who has the upside to dominate this race, which is why I like the idea of anchoring a lineup with either Larson or Chase Elliott, who share the front row. You could also make things interesting by playing Chase Briscoe, as we saw in the Xfinity race that restarting (or, in this case, starting) third offers a quick shot to force someone up the track and drive around for the lead.
Anyway, Larson's had some struggles here at Martinsville, with just three career top-10s at the track, but since joining Hendrick, that performance has improved. He was fifth in his first Hendrick race here and then led 77 laps in this race last year before finishing 14th. His worst finish here with Hendrick Motorsports was this Spring when he was 19th. But again, this is really about the process: I want someone who can lead early.
Christopher Bell
Starts 20th - DraftKings $9,300| FanDuel $11,000
Bell's playoff advancement is hanging by a string. He pretty much has to win this race or finish well and get some good luck to go his way. Because of that, I expect him to be aggressive as he tries to get to the front.
That could backfire. At Martinsville, being too aggressive gets you turned into the fence, which would really stink for everyone. But the first race here was relatively calm—the only DNF was B.J. McLeod with a mechanical issue, and there were two cautions for accidents.
A playoff race is a different beast, of course. Things could get wild. But if they don't, Bell's a great pick, because he's going to move forward through the field on Sunday.
Tyler Reddick
Starts 28th - DraftKings $8,400 | FanDuel $8,500
Reddick is the lowest-starting driver that I'm playing in this one. I think he's probably the only driver starting outside of the top-25 who has the upside to get a top-five here.
Like Kyle Larson above, Reddick hasn't had great luck at Martinsville in the Cup Series. He's got one top-10 here, which came last Spring when he finished eighth. This year in the non-passing race, he started 22nd and finished 18th.
Let's take a bit of a step back, though. How "non-passy" was that race? Of the top-10 finishers, seven didn't start in the top-10. Things still got shuffled up over the course of the race, and good drivers found their way up front. Ross Chastain, for instance, started 27th and finished fifth. It'll be working for Reddick, but let's not pretend it's impossible for him to race his way up toward the front.
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Aric Almirola
Starts 15th - DraftKings $7,000 | FanDuel $7,800
Here's one of these "hedge against cars not being able to pass" bets. Of the drivers who started between 11th and 20th in the first race here, seven finished 15th or better. These are the kind of plays that interest me on Sunday: guys who start in a spot that might usually lead to them being faded.
Almirola will roll off in 15th. He finished eighth here in the Spring, his third top-10 in his last four starts at Martinsville. Before that, he had two DNFs in a row, but before that, he had three consecutive top-15s.
This is a pretty good track for Almirola, and I think there's a pretty likely path for him to finish around eighth or ninth today.
Erik Jones
Starts 23rd - DraftKings $6,700 | FanDuel $6,000
Jones started 24th in the Spring race here, then finished 13th. He was eighth in this race last year, which was his first top-10 at this track.
Looking at the track record, Jones has been pretty bad here, but there's been a notable uptick since 2020, as he's had a top-15 in three of the last four races here, with a mechanical DNF thrown in as well.
If we assume that the recent results show that Jones has gone from being a guy who finishes around 20th here to a guy who finishes around 12th here, then I think there's clearly enough place differential upside to make him a viable play.
Ty Gibbs
Starts 26th - DraftKings $6,100 | FanDuel $5,500
The Xfinity cars and the Cup cars have a lot of differences, especially with this new generation of Cup cars, so success in one won't mean success in the other.
Having said that, Ty Gibbs has been really good this year at Martinsville in Xfinity. In the spring race, he led 197 of 261 laps but finished eighth. Then yesterday, he led 102 laps and won...after he booted his teammate into the wall at the end.
While I don't expect Gibbs to be in a position to crash someone for the win, I do think he should run better than he qualified.
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