RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 85
CURRENT ADP: ~93
ANALYSIS: In his first season with the San Diego Padres in 2023, shortstop Xander Bogaerts had a solid year, slashing .285/.350/.440 with 19 home runs, 31 doubles, two triples, 58 RBI, a career-high 19 stolen bases, and 83 runs scored in 665 plate appearances over 155 games played.
However, when considering the fact that he signed for 11 years and $280 million last winter, the 31-year-old four-time All-Star's overall numbers were somewhat disappointing. He bookended a strong start to his Padres tenure with a strong finish, but in between, Bogaerts was merely average at a premium position.
His underlying numbers also show that he was fortunate to finish with the kind of numbers he did. Bogaerts had a .252 expected batting average and a .395 expected slugging percentage while also regressing slightly in his hard-hit percentage. He has a solid track record of producing high batting averages (career .291 hitter over 11 seasons), but his luck could run out quickly if his hard-hit numbers continue to regress as he nears his mid-30s.
Even though ATC projects Bogaerts for a .281 average, 19 home runs, 69 RBI, and 12 stolen bases in 2024, there's no guarantee his counting stats will improve in his second year in San Diego, especially after the Friars traded away one of their best offensive weapons in Juan Soto.
However, adding second base eligibility -- he's making the move to the keystone full-time in 2024 -- will soften the blow if Bogaerts continues to decline offensively. He's a draft value based on his current ADP.
Xander Bogaerts knocks in the first run of 2024!#SeoulSeries pic.twitter.com/0fGL8hSWCU
— MLB (@MLB) March 20, 2024
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