RADIO
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Dover this weekend for the Wurth 400. Kyle Busch won the pole for Sunday's race, turning a lap of 22.196 seconds to claim the top spot. Busch is still looking for his first win of the season after winning three races last season in his first year with Richard Childress Racing.
Kyle Larson comes into Sunday's race as the points leader in the Cup Series. He holds a 15-point advantage over Martin Truex Jr. Chase Elliott, William Byron, and Tyler Reddick round out the current top five spots in the regular season standings
Below are my NASCAR DFS lineup picks for the Wurth 400 on DraftKings and FanDuel this week. This slate locks on 4/28/2024 at 2:09 p.m. EST. If you have any questions or want to talk about NASCAR, you can find me on Twitter at @juscarts.
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DFS Lineup Picks - DraftKings, FanDuel
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Martin Truex Jr.
Starts 15th - DK: $11,300, FD: $13,500
You can't come to Dover without talking about Martin Truex Jr., a four-time Cup Series winner at this track. This is tied with Sonoma for the title of MTJ's winningest track. Overall, he's got 19 top-10 finishes at Dover.
Martin Truex Jr. notes a big key for this weekend will be to guess how much the track changes from practice today (cloudy, high of 61) to the race tomorrow afternoon (sunny, high of 81). This practice won't be very representative of the race conditions.
— Jeff Gluck (@jeff_gluck) April 27, 2024
This includes a win here last year, with Truex starting 17th and leading 68 laps on his way to victory lane. That marked the fifth time in the past seven races here that Truex has finished first or second.
Truex also highlights something about DFS strategy for this race, which is that place differential is going to be huge. I trust maybe three drivers who start in the top 10 on Sunday to actually finish there. I think we see a lot of movement through this field.
Ross Chastain
Starts 22nd - DK: $10,200, FD: $12,000
Ross Chastain really struggled at this track in the early days of his Cup Series career, but mostly that was due to him running his first six races here for Premium Motorsports. In 2021, he moved to Chip Ganassi Racing and finished 15th, showcasing some improvement at the track.
In 2022, Chastain made the move to Trackhouse Racing and he's been arguably the best car here over these two years. He has finished second and third and led 86 laps in 2022 and 98 last year. He hasn't won, but he's come about as close as you can get to winning here.
Chase Elliott
Starts 29th - DK: $9,900, FD: $11,000
Hopefully, Chase Elliott qualifying 29th isn't a sign that he's sliding back toward his downturned performance of 2022 and the beginning of 2023. Elliott got off to a so-so start to this season, but the former Cup Series champion has a top five in three of the past four races, including a win at Texas Motor Speedway. He was third at Martinsville and fifth at Richmond.
Elliott has a really good track record here. In 13 starts, he has two wins and nine top fives, and he also has finishes of 11th and 12th. He won this race in 2022, leading 73 laps in the process. He's also led triple-digit laps twice.
Chase Elliott gets it done at Dover pic.twitter.com/fJjtPxh9vR
— Rubbin is Racing (@rubbinisracing) May 2, 2022
The number 9 car starts 29th on Sunday, so there are a lot of place differential points up for grabs for Elliott. That makes him arguably my favorite play of this whole race.
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Daniel Suarez
Starts 31st - DK: $6,700, FD: $6,200
While Daniel Suarez has a win this year, that victory is one of just two top 10s for the 99 car, as the team just hasn't had top speed this year. Still, Suarez's average finish is 18.3, and he's finished 22nd or better in 70% of the races this season.
With Suarez firing off from 31st, a finish around his average finish would make for a solid day in DFS, and a finish better than that could lead to him making the optimal lineup, depending on how well he runs.
Suarez has five top 10s in 11 starts here, including a best finish of third. His 35th-place finish here last year came after a crash. He was top 15 in his other two Trackhouse Dover races.
Jimmie Johnson
Starts 27th - DK: $6,200, FD: $4,800
Jimmie Johnson used to be money here and while those days are pretty far in the past now, I still think if there's any track where he can momentarily recapture some of the old seven-time magic, this is it.
hello, old friend pic.twitter.com/gPALtVUOCk
— Jimmie Johnson (@JimmieJohnson) April 27, 2024
Johnson's won here 11 times and has 27 top 10s in 38 starts. He hasn't raced here since his final season in 2020, but he had top 10s in both Dover races that year. That accounts for 20% of Johnson's top 10s in that final Cup Series season.
While he's struggled in the Next Gen car, this could be a perfect spot for Johnson to have his first good run since he returned to part-time competition in 2023. His 27th-place starting spot mixed with his low DFS salary makes him a solid place-differential value option.
Justin Haley
Starts 36th - DK: $5,400, FD: $3,000
Justin Haley starts way back in 36th on Sunday. His first season with Rick Ware Racing has been pretty rough, as Haley's average finish is just 27.3, but his best run came on a shorter oval, as he finished 17th at Bristol. These are very different tracks, but it feels more encouraging than if his best run had been on a road course or superspeedway.
Haley ran really well here back in 2022 for Kaulig Racing, leading 19 laps and finishing 11th. He has two top 10s at this track in the Xfinity Series. Haley is dirt cheap on both platforms and is a really nice punt option.
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