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The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Dover this weekend for the Wurth 400, with one big question mark hanging over the series: will we actually get to race on Sunday? Rain is in the forecast all day on Sunday and while NASCAR has moved the start time up by an hour, there's no guarantee that the race gets in on Sunday.
And with qualifying rained out, we've got a pretty weird starting grid too. Joey Logano fires off 26th, for instance, while both Roush cars start in the top 10, as does Ricky Stenhouse Jr. It should be a fun one.
Below are my NASCAR DFS lineup picks for the Wurth 400 on DraftKings and FanDuel this week. This slate locks on 4/30/23 at 1:09 p.m. ET. If you have any questions or want to talk about NASCAR, you can find me on Twitter at @juscarts.
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DFS Lineup Picks - DraftKings, FanDuel
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Kyle Larson
Starts 18th - DK: $11,500, FD: $14,000
Larson, the winner in the 2018 fall race here, starts 18th. It's the lowest he's started at this track since 2016, when he started 23rd and finished second.
It doesn't really matter where Larson starts at Dover, though. He's had eight finishes in a row of 12th or better here, and overall has finished at least 12th in 13 of his 14 Dover races in the Cup Series.
He's also led 100-plus laps four times, including leading 263 of the 400 laps on his way to a second-place finish in 2021. This is one of Larson's top tracks and he's a threat to win Sunday.
Kevin Harvick
Starts 12th - DK: $9,300, FD: $12,000
This is definitely more of a DraftKings pick than a FanDuel pick because of the price—I might opt for Ross Chastain at $11,000 on FanDuel over Harvick at $12,000. But at $9,300, I think there's some DK value here.
Harvick has a great track record at Dover, winning three times at this track and only have one DNF in 42 starts. He's also gotten better here with age. Over his last eight starts at Dover, Harvick's worst finish is ninth, and he's won twice. Overall, he's led 200 or more laps five times in his career here.
In his final Cup Series season, this feels like one of Harvick's best shots to cap his career off with a victory.
Joey Logano
Starts 26th - DK: $8,800, FD: $8,200
Great place differential play here, as Joey Logano fires off from 26th in the No. 22 Penske Racing Ford. And while he doesn't have the track record of Larson or Harvick here, he's still run well at Dover during his career, with an average finsih of 13.8.
Logano has a top 10 in five of his last seven Dover starts, including a third-place finish in the 2018 fall race. He struggled to a 29th-place finish here last year, but was fifth in 2021.
But even if he's had a few stinkers at this track, we just can't ignore the place differential upside of a Penske driver starting this far back. Finish at his career average here and you're looking at either +12 or +13 in place differential.
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Chase Briscoe
Starts 6th - DK: $8,200, FD: $7,500
Obviously, it's always risky to play a non-elite driver who starts in the top 10, because the penalty for negative place differential is always lurking right there, ready to strike.
But I think I'm willing to take that risk with Chase Briscoe. He's had three finishes in a row of fifth or better this season, including a fifth at Martinsville where he led 109 laps. And while his Cup Series track record at Dover isn't great—he has finishes of 35th and 13th in two starts—he's an Xfinity Series winner here, leading over half of the race in 2020 on his way to the victory. He also has two other Xfinity top fives here.
Kevin Harvick is the most likely SHR driver to finish this weekend's race in victory lane, but don't count out Briscoe. I'll likely lay a little down on him to win.
Austin Dillon
Starts 36th - DK: $6,300, FD: $5,200
Pure place differential play here. Austin Dillon only has three top 10s in 17 Dover starts in the Cup Series with an average finsih of 19.3, but the fact that he starts last on Sunday negates almost all the concerns I have.
Plus, Dillon has been decent here lately, with top 15 runs in three of his last four Dover Cup races. He led 49 laps in one of the races at this track back in 2020.
Not really much else to say here. Dillon won't contend for a win or anything, but a top 15 isn't out of reach, and 15th would be +21 in place differential.
Todd Gilliland
Starts 35th - DK: $5,800, FD: $4,200
Gilliland's faced a lot of adversity this year, as he's been kicked out of his main ride by Zane Smith for a handful of races. One of those was last week at Talladega, when he slid into the 36 car and finished 10th.
Over the last six races, Gilliland has five finishes of 15th or better, including three top 10s. The second-year driver is really proving some things. Despite running one race in a really bad Rick Ware Racing car already, Gilliland has an average finish of 19.0, up from 23.2 last year.
He's back in his primary ride this week, and he starts 35th, second-lowest in the race. If Gilliland can just run like he has been in recent weeks, this should pay off as a place differential value play.
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