WR Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Picks for Week 12 (2024)

It's bad enough that the wide receiver position has shoved fantasy managers into a glass case of emotion all season long. Now we have to deal with six teams on a bye while waiting for healthy receivers to return to our lineups. 

Listen to the names, the healthy names, that fantasy managers will need to find fantasy production replacements. Drake London and Darnell Mooney of the Falcons. Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams of the Jets. Tee Higgins, who we just got back, and Ja'Marr Chase of the Bengals. We are also without Amari Cooper (who also just returned), Khalil Shakir, Brian Thomas Jr., and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who has posted back-to-back weeks with 16 or more fantasy points.

Our work is cut out for us here in Week 12, but with many fantasy managers' seasons hanging in the balance, here are your RotoBaller starts and sits for the wide receiver position.

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Week 12 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms

Marvin Harrison Jr. - WR, Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

During the season, the Seattle Seahawks have allowed 34.18 fantasy points per game, the 12th-most to date. With 1,445 receiving yards allowed to receivers on 126 receptions (11th-most) and 11 touchdowns, it's easy to see how those fantasy points have quickly added up this season.

This week, the Seahawks welcome Marvin Harrison Jr., whose season has been a fantasy roller coaster, to say the least. Harrison has finished in the top 26 this season in fantasy scoring on five occasions. He has also finished 55th or worse on five occasions as well. This feels like one of those good weeks with an advantageous matchup and coming off four consecutive weeks with five or more targets.

Fantasy managers should feel good this week, considering the Seahawks have allowed the ninth-most receiving touchdowns to the position. At the same time, Harrison's 40% team target share in the red zone is the eighth-most, even more than Justin Jefferson's.

Highest share of team targets on throws into the end zone per TruMedia...

Drake London 56.3%
Malik Nabers 55.6%
George Pickens 52.4%
Terry McLaurin 47.6%
Courtland Sutton 42.9%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 42.9%
Tyreek Hill 40%
Marvin Harrison Jr. 40%
Justin Jefferson 38.5%

— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) November 18, 2024

 Josh Downs - WR, Indianapolis Colts vs. Detroit Lions

I planted the Josh Downs flag long ago. Many were concerned that Downs' production might slip once Anthony Richardson returned as the starter. Still, even with Richardson's concerns, Downs thrived once again, hauling in five passes for 84 yards and a touchdown last week, earning 19 fantasy points on the day.

Josh Downs is still really good. 🔥

📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/Umel6l7jrY

— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) November 17, 2024

Throughout the season and over the last four weeks, the Detroit Lions have remained consistent. If you need a receiver to start, see who the Lions are playing. See, fantasy football is easy. Detroit has allowed the most receptions (157); the 1,887 receiving yards surrendered is the fourth-most.

I'm not great at math, but if Detroit is allowing 36.65 fantasy points per game over the last four weeks and Downs is averaging 17 fantasy points per game over the previous four weeks, I'm not sure what the number is, but that has to equal a must-start if I have ever seen one. One of my favorite indicators for fantasy success is first downs per route run, and Downs' 0.136 ranks seventh this season.

Ladd McConkey - WR, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Baltimore Ravens

Have we officially found this generation's version of Tom Brady and Julian Edelman? All kidding aside, since the Chargers bye week, Justin Herbert and Ladd McConkey have been one of the hottest quarterback/wide receiver combinations around. Since Week 6, McConkey has produced 83.9 fantasy points, the 11th most over that period, averaging 14 fantasy points per contest.

McConkey proved his worth last week against the Bengals, showcasing that elite separating ability, leading to six receptions for 123 yards on nine targets. It's only a matter of time until McConkey earns that 30% target share. This week, there is a strong possibility of that happening.

THIS GAME.

📺: #CINvsLAC on NBC/Peacock
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/a9bcVX0ClO

— NFL (@NFL) November 18, 2024

This week's opponent, the Baltimore Ravens, has allowed more fantasy points per game over the last four weeks (47.55) than throughout the season (42.97). It doesn't get any better than this. Baltimore has allowed league-highs in receiving yards with 2,084 and touchdowns with 16 to the position this season, both of which bold well for McConkey and his partner in crime Quentin Johnston this week.

 I Don't Care About the Matchup Start

This week, I will look past the matchup and fire up Jauan Jennings of the San Francisco 49ers in a less-than-favorable matchup with the Green Bay Packers. Green Bay has been defending opposing wide receivers as well as anyone this season, allowing the 10th-fewest fantasy points, and they have been even more stingy these last four weeks, allowing just 22.3 fantasy points per game, the third-fewest.

Enter Jennings, who has been a target monster whenever Deebo Samuel Sr. or Brandon Aiyuk have not been part of the equation. Aiyuk's season is over, and Samuel seemed to be the third option in this 49ers offense last week as Jennings accounted for 41% of the 49ers' receiving yards. It's more than that, though.

In three games he has played without one or the other 49er receiver, Jennings is averaging 119.7 receiving yards and 29.3 PPR points while commanding 40.0%, 30.6%, and 39.3% of the target share along with a 42% first-read target share. He's also averaged 2.84 yards per route run this season, a number only Nico Collins, Justin Jefferson, and Jayden Reed are currently surpassing.

Week 12 Sits - Fantasy Football Busts

Puka Nacua - WR, Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles

I have to sit one of these Rams wide receivers despite each producing 25 or more fantasy points last week: the reason is Quinyon Mitchell. 

So why has the rookie corner instilled fear in opposing wide receivers? Let's look at his "hit list" through 10 weeks, shall we? Drake London had one catch for six yards. Chris Olave had just two receptions for 23 yards. Mike Evans had two grabs for 19 yards. Amari Cooper and Malik Nabers each held to one catch and 10 or fewer receiving yards. How about some All-Pros? Ja'Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb had just a pair of receptions, each held to less than 20 yards a piece. Last week, it was Terry McLaurin who Mitchell held without a reception.

Examining which Rams receiver will be erased this week comes down to formation. Cooper Kupp sees 60% of his routes coming from the slot, while Puka Nacua lines up on the right side of the formation for 60% of his routes. Meanwhile, Mitchell has predominantly been used on the right boundary, meaning we will likely see Mitchell defending Nacua more often than he does Kupp.

INSANE: #Eagles rookie CB Quinyon Mitchell stands alone as the only cornerback with 350+ coverage snaps in 2024 to not allow a single touchdown.🤯

Can he take home the DROY title? 🏆 pic.twitter.com/4zAZ7xdoKo

— BetUS Pro Football (@BetUSProFB) November 18, 2024

While I am sitting Nacua, I am starting Kupp as the other rookie, Cooper DeJean, has defended the slot receiver 96% of the time.

Deebo Samuel Sr. - WR, San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers

I already alluded to the fact that this is a bad matchup. I also mentioned that Deebo Samuel Sr. is likely the fourth option in this offense behind Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Jennings.

In recent weeks, Seattle has been one of the worst defenses in the NFL and fantasy when defending opposing receivers. Not only have the Seahawks allowed 575 receiving yards to the position, but they have also allowed four touchdowns and 44.23 fantasy points per game, which is the second-most over the last four weeks. In a great matchup, Samuel produced just four receptions, 22 receiving yards, and six fantasy points.

That lack of production in an A+-plus-caliber matchup came without George Kittle. Kittle is likely to return this week, further capping any fantasy ceiling that Samuel may have had.

Jakobi Meyers - WR, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos

On the season, Pat Surtain has been allowing just 0.15 fantasy points per route run, which is among the elite at the cornerback position. Las Vegas moves Jakobi Meyers around the formation, with 37% of his routes coming from the slot, while 31% come from the left side of the formation and 32% from the right. Surtain doesn't travel often to the middle, as 41% of his snaps see him lined up on the left side of the formation and 47% of the snaps on the right.

Only Jaylon Johnson of the Bears has seen a lower target per-route run-on rate on the outside than the 9.6% that Surtain has seen thus far. Minshew will likely turn his attention to Brock Bowers whenever Meyers lines up outside.

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