RADIO
With six or seven games of data for each team, situations are becoming more crystalized and teams are game-planning to exploit clear-cut coverage weaknesses. Compiling this data and writing this article each week has made it clear that a WR's talent and target share are more important than his opposition. With that said, fantasy managers should be aware of how stingy certain cornerbacks and pass defenses have been thus far. Jaire Alexander, Tre’Davious White, James Bradberry, Darius Slay, and Jason Verrett are lockdown stars, while the Chiefs, Chargers, Rams, Bears, and Washington Football Team have been outstanding at limiting fantasy production to opposing WRs.
The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first being the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science. The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups, rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened.
The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury. WRs highlighted in bright green have an easy matchup. WRs highlighted in light red have a tough matchup.
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Cornerback Ratings and Matchups - Week 8
WR/CB Matchups to Target
You know the drill by now. Atlanta plays Carolina on Thursday night, making D.J. Moore one of the best starts of the week. Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel are also in great spots.
Detroit has been bad against WRs all year as well. Marcus Johnson has the easiest matchup based on the chart, but the Colts move their receivers all around the formation. So T.Y. Hilton or Zach Pascal could benefit as well.
Davante Adams is fresh off eviscerating Bradley Roby and the Texans. His reward? Arguably the worst outside CB in the league in Harrison Hand. Anything less than 100 yards and a TD would be a disappointment.
Seattle’s Shaquill Griffin is dealing with a concussion, which could lead to more of Tre Flowers, one of the most burnable players in the NFL. The Seahawks’ lack of a pass rush has also helped out opposing WRs, specifically on the outside. Brandon Aiyuk has accumulated fantasy points as a runner as well as a receiver, but he has the skills to take advantage down the field this week.
Travis Fulgham has been a target-hog for the Eagles. He should do major damage against Dallas’ pitiful pass defense. Jalen Reagor and Greg Ward are also in good spots if they get enough volume.
In the slot, Julian Edelman gets a boost versus a below-average Buffalo nickel group. Hunter Renfrow gets the Browns, who just gave up a huge game to Tyler Boyd. And Boyd himself gets Tennessee, who has been gashed by slots all year. Finally, Keenan Allen should have no issue putting up stats against Essang Bassey in Denver.
WR/CB Matchups to Avoid
I have to start this space with a warning: just because a WR has a bad matchup does not mean you should bench him. WR talent level and target share are generally more predictive than matchup.
Diontae Johnson, Amari Cooper, Julio Jones, DeVante Parker, Kenny Golladay, and Stefon Diggs are all WR1s with tough matchups. I wouldn’t advise benching any of them, but temper expectations.
Sterling Shepard had a nice first game back against the Eagles last week, but he’s slated to face standout CB Jamel Dean and the tough Tampa Bay secondary. I would only consider playing him in deep leagues.
The outside corners for the Chiefs and Rams make it difficult to trust Breshad Perriman or Preston Williams this week. The same can be said for K.J. Hamler against the Chargers and both Marquez Callaway and Tre'Quan Smith against the Bears.
Jerry Jeudy and JuJu Smith-Schuster have difficult slot matchups and are probably better off left on benches this week.
And finally, Mike Evans. After two terrible weeks, it’s become clear that Tom Brady is willing to look elsewhere. But with Chris Godwin out, more opportunity gives him a great chance to bounce back, right? Unfortunately, Evans will likely be shadowed by shutdown CB James Bradberry on Monday night. Evans can always pop off for a big game due to his red-zone prowess, but this could be a third straight week of disappointment.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week.
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