RADIO
As we enter Week 12, injuries and changes in coaching tendencies continue to affect the CB Matchup Chart. Trends within recent weeks are becoming just as important to understand as the full-season data.
The Jets have re-tooled their entire secondary with three new starters at each CB position. Keep an eye on rookie Bryce Hall at LCB, who played well in his first start. The Jaguars don't expect to have standout RCB Sidney Jones this week, which will force them to start three substandard options at CB. Meanwhile, the once-revered Tampa Bay CB trio has sputtered as of late, most recently against Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods on Monday night.
Compiling this data and writing this article each week has made it clear that while matchups do matter, a receiver's talent and target share are more important than his opposition in most cases.
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Chart Details
The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first being the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science. The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups, rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened.
The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury. WRs highlighted in bright green have an easy matchup. WRs highlighted in light red have a tough matchup.
Cornerback Ratings and Matchups - Week 12
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WR/CB Matchups to Target
Happy Thanksgiving to Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, and Marvin Jones Jr. All three are in great spots. The only concern for all of them is that both Detroit and Houston struggle against the run so much that air production might not be needed as much.
In the late Thanksgiving day game, Terry McLaurin gets the subpar Dallas outside corners. Alex Smith should feed him early and often.
Nelson Agholor and Henry Ruggs III get the Falcons terrible pass defense this week. It is worth noting though that while Kendall Sheffield, Darqueze Dennard, and Isaiah Oliver have been consistently below average, rookie LCB A.J. Terrell is playing better in recent weeks. Agholor has played more LWR and has been the preferred option anyway.
Sidney Jones is expected to be out again this week for the Jaguars, so the Browns outside receivers get a boost. Rashard Higgins and KhaDarel Hodge play in a run-heavy offense, but their low projections are being impacted by playing in such bad weather over the past few weeks. Jarvis Landry has more talent than D.J. Hayden, but the Jaguars Defense has funneled production to outside WRs rather than slots. I wouldn't mind starting a Browns WR this week in a deep league.
LWRs have routinely dominated the Vikings regardless of who is manning RCB. D.J. Moore has been producing more than Robby Anderson in recent weeks and I expect that trend to continue against Minnesota.
Lamar Jackson has apparently been released by the Ravens and is now playing RCB for the Jets. An incredible fall from grace for last year's MVP. DeVante Parker should have no problem taking advantage of a career quarterback trying to play defense. Jackson has the CB skills of an undrafted prospect from Nebraska.
Jalen Reagor and Travis Fulgham have easy on-paper matchups but context paints a much muddier picture. Carson Wentz has been terrible, Shaquill Griffin is coming back from injury, Zach Ertz is coming back, and most importantly, the Seahawks Defense has not been that bad in recent weeks. It is possible the Seahawks regress back to their pre-Carlos Dunlap ways and Wentz and his targets take advantage. I wouldn't be super confident starting any Eagle.
One of the most pronounced splits this research has led me to discover is the difference between WR1s and WR2s versus the Eagles. Darius Slay has routinely locked up opposing WR1s, while Avonte Maddox has largely struggled against opposing WR2s. David Moore is a candidate to come out of nowhere for a big game this week.
The slot matchups to take advantage of this week include Jakobi Meyers against Byron Murphy, Emmanuel Sanders and Michael Thomas against Essang Bassey, Russell Gage against Nevin Lawson, and Tyler Boyd against Darnay Holmes. In New Orleans, Sanders and Thomas move all around the formation, so whoever gets more work in the slot this week will benefit.
WR/CB Matchups to Avoid
D.K. Metcalf scored a touchdown on a scramble drill last week, but also struggled with drops and only had 3 catches on 5 targets. This week he gets Darius Slay, who has been one of the toughest CBs in the NFL this season. Metcalf is a beast, but he has been neutralized in tough matchups before. This battle should be fun on Monday night.
Diontae Johnson has been a target monster when healthy but has a tough matchup with Jimmy Smith on Sunday. The last time Johnson played the Ravens he was held to one catch and left the game with an injury. It's tough to bench a guy getting well over ten targets a game, but tempering expectations is probably a good idea.
A.J. Brown dropped a 70-yard touchdown the last time he faced Xavier Rhodes and the Colts. Brown is an elite playmaker, especially after the catch, but this is a tough matchup.
Stefon Diggs is one of the best route-runners in the NFL and has been tremendous in his first year as a Buffalo Bill. Still, the Chargers have done a terrific job at limiting fantasy points to opposing WRs all year.
The Washington Football Team has been stingy against receivers all year but was well on its way to giving up a huge game to Joe Burrow before he got hurt. With Andy Dalton back and a re-shuffled offensive line, the Cowboys have shown some promise on offense. Based on the numbers, this might not be the best spot for boom weeks from Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, or CeeDee Lamb.
Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp are fresh off eviscerating the Bucs CBs, but this week face Jason Verrett and the 49ers. I obviously wouldn't consider benching them but don't expect repeat performances.
In the slot this week, JuJu Smith-Schuster has to deal with Marlon Humphrey, while Allen Lazard and Anthony Miller face off against the Bears and Packers stingy slot corners. Hopefully you have better options.
Happy Thanksgiving, thanks for reading, and good luck this week.
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