RADIO
If you're reading this article, there's a good chance you've advanced to the fantasy semi-finals. Good job making it this far, but there are still plenty of decisions to be made in the final two weeks. My hope is that this WR/CB Matchup Chart has helped you throughout the season.
The good news is that as the sample size grows, the numbers are more meaningful. The bad news is that so much has changed that the early season data is in some cases irrelevant. Regardless, it can't hurt to know who your starting WRs are going up against and how good those CBs have been at limiting fantasy points this season.
Compiling this data and writing this article each week has made it clear that while matchups do matter, a receiver's talent and target share are more important than his opposition in many cases.
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Chart Details
The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first being the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science. The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups, rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened.
The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury. WRs highlighted in bright green have an easy matchup. WRs highlighted in light red have a tough matchup. The chart is a useful tool, but should not be used as a start/sit cheatsheet.
Cornerback Ratings and Matchups - Week 15
WR/CB Matchups to Target
Welcome back T.Y. Hilton! Philip Rivers' number one receiver has been scorching of late and this week gets arguably the best WR matchup in football against the Texans. Houston has been embarrassed by WR1s since Bradley Roby went down with an injury. The Colts have a ton of options on offense, but T.Y. has re-emerged as the clear WR1.
The Atlanta Falcons have been better on defense in recent weeks. Early in the season, they gave up fantasy points to opposing WRs at an unbelievable rate. They've evolved from horrible to just bad. Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, and Chris Godwin all move around the formation, so it's hard to say who of the three is in the best spot. All three smashing value is unlikely given the improved play of both defenses, but individually they are good plays.
Brandon Aiyuk has emerged as a target-hog WR1 for the 49ers and this week gets the terrible Cowboys outside CBs. Regardless of who is healthy, the Cowboys Defense will be at a major disadvantage against the raw physical talent of Aiyuk.
A.J. Brown and Corey Davis both get an upgrade against the Lions' terrible outside corners. Lions' slot corner Justin Coleman is actually pretty good, but the Titans haven't thrown to slots much since Adam Humphries went down with an injury. Brown and Davis have great matchups with the only concern being a blowout game script that limits Ryan Tannehill's pass attempts.
The Vikings have actually been much better against WR1s the past few weeks compared to the beginning of the season. Minnesota limited Allen Robinson to just 6 catches for 43 yards the last time these two teams met. That was with Nick Foles at QB, so with Mitchell Trubisky playing well and eager to pepper his WR1 with targets, Robinson has a high ceiling in this rematch.
Between Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and Josh Reynolds, the Rams WRs should have no problem dominating the Jets overmatched corners. Reynolds actually has the easiest statistical matchup of the three against RCB Lamar Jackson.
Christian Kirk should avoid Darius Slay and take advantage of the easiest WR2 matchup in the league against the Eagles. Kirk is boom or bust, and this could be a boom week.
As far as slots go, look for Cole Beasley to bounce back against Denver, Jakobi Meyers to be Cam's preferred target against Miami, and K.J. Hamler to get more looks in a plus matchup against Buffalo. Hamler only got 3 targets last week but probably earned more after scoring 2 long TDs against the Panthers.
WR/CB Matchups to Avoid
Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore face off against the Packers this week and the big question is who will Jaire Alexander shadow if anyone? Based on my research and projections, I believe it will be Anderson, but we won't know for sure until game day.
D.J. Chark has been far more productive with Gardner Minshew at QB, but this isn't the week to capitalize on that connection. The Ravens do not give up a lot of points to outside WRs.
If Drew Brees plays, Michael Thomas is an obvious elite WR1 play. If Taysom Hill is still the starter, Thomas still projects to get enough volume to produce, but his matchup is tough against Bashaud Breeland and the Chiefs.
Adam Thielen had an underwhelming game against the Buccaneers this past weekend and it won't get much easier against Kyle Fuller and the Bears. Thielen scored twice the last time these teams met, but he was held under 50 yards.
Nelson Agholor has quietly been a solid fantasy WR this season. Unfortunately, he's slated to face off against Chargers' standout CB Michael Davis on Thursday night. Both Agholor and slot receiver Hunter Renfrow get downgrades for the Raiders.
DeVante Parker is banged up, faces Bill Belichick with a rookie QB, and has a tough matchup against New England's solid outside CBs. I wouldn't feel confident starting him this week.
Keke Coutee had a huge game the first time the Texans faced the Colts in Week 13. However, that was an outlier performance against star slot corner Kenny Moore. Coutee should see enough volume, but facing Moore he gets a downgrade.
Tyler Lockett has been a frustrating player for fantasy managers all year. He always has the potential to pop off a huge game but the Washington Football Team gives up the 3rd-fewest points to slot receivers in the league.
Finally, I truly hope this piece of advice does not actually impact anyone's WR decisions this week: The Jets WRs are all unplayable against the Rams' elite CB group.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week.
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