Wimbledon DFS Lineup Picks for DraftKings (7/6/23) - Day 4

Welcome to “The Slam”! This is the home for all Tennis as we welcome Wimbledon. Unlike regular Tour matches for ATP, Grand Slam matches are a BO5, however, the WTA matches will remain a BO3 and will be scored appropriately to equal that of the ATP.

The top two favorites from both ATP and WTA are: Dimitrov -500 & Tiafoe -450 and Pegula -650 & Haddad Maia -600. I will guide you on Day Two of Wimbledon starting at 9:15 A.M. EST.

If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else, don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected], via Twitter @df_solutions, or in our Discord chat rooms.

High-Salary Players $9K+

Grigor Dimitrov - DK $10.2K | ATP Rank: 24  

Opponent - Ilya Ivashka | ATP Rank: 102

As the fourth-most expensive player on the slate, we get some value, albeit not very much. Dimitrov is destroying tennis balls right now and then you have Ivashka who is struggling in all aspects. Surprisingly Ivashka leads the Head-to-Head series 2-1 on both hard court and clay, however, that will not help him here. Statistically Dimitrov leads every category in their Last 52 weeks of Grass-Court tennis – Serve, Return and Pressure –. Furthermore, Dimitrov owns the third-highest Aces For Percentage on the slate – 14.6. It would be extremely surprising for most if Dimitrov does not close this out in straights.    

Jelena Ostapenko - DK $9K | WTA Rank: 17 

Opponent - Sorona-Mihaela Cirstea | WTA Rank: 37

Only looking at ranks, you would think on paper that this matchup will be much closer. However, diving deeper it is almost completely opposite. Despite Ostapenko fighting through a minor injury, it has not affected her a ton, handling Minnen without much trouble. On the other hand, Cirstea has won two out of her four matches since transitioning from clay to grass and all four of those matches have gone to the deciding set, showcasing her struggle to close out matches and keep focus. This is going to play into the hands of Ostapenko very well as she loves to pick her shots and make the opponent work for points. At the very bottom of the top range in salary, this is a steal. Keep in mind that Ostapenko has beaten Cirstea three times and her most recent win came at Rome this year on clay.                                       

Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Haddad Maia (DK $10.3K), Garcia (DK $9.2K)

Mid-Salary Players $7.5K to $8.9K

Marton Fucsovics - DK $8.7K | ATP Rank: 67  

Opponent - Marcos Giron | ATP Rank: 65

Similar to the above WTA match, this is yet another matchup with players close in ranking. However, once again one player is miles better right now and in great form. Fucsovics is playing lights out right now and he just most recently made it to the Semi-Finals and lost in straights to Frances Tiafoe at Stuttgart. In that same tournament, Giron couldn’t make it past Lehecka in a deciding set in the First Round. Furthermore, Giron has also struggled in qualifiers after that loss and lost his next two Tour matches in both Halle and Mallorca before his First Round win in straights against Hugo Dellien. These two have not played since last year where Fucsovics owns a 1-0 record against Giron and he is statistically the better player by quite a bit right now. This could be a big value play, similar to Paula Bodosa and Karolina Muchova a few days ago.   

Andy Murray - DK $8.2K | ATP Rank: 40  

Opponent - Stefanos Tsitsipas | ATP Rank: 5

Despite The Slam’s Confidence Ranking being a 4 out of 20 for Murray, this matchup makes it into the article for this range because it is one of the most interesting matchups on the slate. Andy Murray who has done many great things in his career is at home for Wimbledon and will have the home crowd in his favor and Stefanos Tsitipas has lost a bit of concentration since his newly found relationship started with fellow tennis player Paula Badosa. This lapse of the mental game is not something that will slip by against a grass-court specialist like Murray. These two share a 1-1 record with Tsitsipas taking the win on Hard-Court and Murray taking it on Grass-Court. This could be a big win for Murray if he can hold strong.                                                           

Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Shelton (DK $8.8K), Bouzkova (DK $8.5K)

Low-Salary Players <$7.5K

Daniel Elahi Galan - DK $6.4K | ATP Rank: 85

Opponent - Oscar Otte | ATP Rank: 233

This could prove to be yet another valuable low-owned play. This is a tale of two clay players with zero Head-to-Head experience and Galan playing slightly better than Otte right now. Otte has just four wins in his last ten matches with all four coming at Wimbledon – three qualifiers and a First Round win –. Furthermore, in two of these matches, Otte dropped at least one set to lesser competition. Meanwhile, Galan has beaten players like Nishioka or taken sets from players like Arnaldi. Galan as well has played lesser opponents in his last ten, however, he has won the majority of those matches. Galan also has a much better return game and pressure rating right now. This is a perfect ‘punt’ play that could very well work out. 

Mikael Ymer - DK $5.3K | ATP Rank: 59

Opponent - Taylor Harry Fritz | ATP Rank: 9

It is possible that many will be scratching their heads at this play, however, it is very possible. Fritz, like Tsitsipas – mentioned above – has shown big lapses in his mental game right now and that is a big part of a player’s toolkit to win matches. On the other side of the net is Mikael Ymer who has gotten extremely unlucky over the last month with balls bouncing the wrong way or umpires making incorrect calls, but the one thing that doesn’t change is his desire to grind his opponents down. Ymer is a workhorse and Fritz is not. If Ymer can control this match early, Fritz could find himself in a hole quickly. At the very bottom of the pricing, this is the ideal ‘punt’ play if you are aiming at playing 5 ‘safe’ players.                                           

Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Moutet (DK $7.3K), Mannarino (DK $5.1K)

Thanks for reading The Slam. Good luck in all of your contests today!

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