Will Justin Fields be a Top-5 fantasy quarterback in 2023? Fantasy Football Outlook

Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields finished as the QB5 in fantasy football in his first full season starting in 2022.

Fields was pegged as a terrible passer. His PFF passing grade was a dismal 54.4, and he only completed 60.4% of his passes. Can an injury-prone quarterback with poor passing technique continue to rely on his rushing ability to carry his offense?

Will Fields finish as a top-5 fantasy quarterback in 2023? Let's consider the arguments for and against.

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Will Justin Fields Be A Top-5 Fantasy Quarterback?

Fields averaged 20.5 points per game in standard leagues (four points per passing touchdown), which was good for fifht in both average scoring and season-long total scoring.

He achieved that level of success despite the fact that he started off the season slowly. He scored single-digit points in Weeks 2 and 3. If you look at only Weeks 5-17, Fields had the third-highest average fantasy production per game, behind only Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes.

The Bears added a new WR1 in D.J. Moore. Moore, who has run 76.4% of his routes from out wide, has gained over 1,100 yards in three of his past four seasons and is an upgrade over both Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool. Many analysts expect Fields to step up his passing game in his third year, but that's an optimistic projection. Fields would have to step up his passing by a large margin if he is to make up for a possible drop in his rushing.

Does anyone expect Fields to gain 1,143 yards on the ground again this season? Fields' 2022 total was already the second-most rushing yards for a QB ever. There have only been four seasons in which a signal-caller has passed the millennium mark. Two of those were Lamar Jackson and the other, besides Fields, was Michael Vick.

Fields will continue to be an elite rusher, and he might put up rushing yardage totals in the range of 600-900, but we shouldn't expect him to meet, let alone surpass 1,000 yards every single season. It's not even good for his team. Seventy of his 89 carries – which accounted for 721 of his yards – were on scrambles, which Fields should try to cut down on if he has better blocking and more confidence as a passer.

When Should Fantasy Players Draft Justin Fields?

Fields has a legitimate shot at repeating as a top-5 fantasy quarterback. If you believe he will take that big step up as a passer, he might even step up into contention for QB2. Then you have to ask who will fall. Mahomes, Burrow, and Allen are considered as locks. An injury to any of them is hard to predict.

Lamar Jackson averaged 20.3 points per game in 2022, but he was injured and missed four games, so he finished at QB13 in total scoring. If he can be healthy for a full season, he would challenge Fields for a spot in the top 5.

Scouts have long been infatuated with Justin Herbert's big arm. Will this be the year, under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, that he finally puts it all together for an elite season?

Trevor Lawrence, fresh off his breakout in the second half of 2022, is also a fashionable MVP candidate. He is going just ahead of Fields in National Fantasy Football Championship league drafts. You can get Fields in the fourth round, according to NFC ADP data, at QB7. He and Lamar Jackson (QB8) are relatively low-cost options for high-upside rushing QBs who could finish in the top 5.

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