RADIO
It's Week 14 and it's time to put up or shut up. Many of us out there are playing for our fantasy football playoff lives. Some of the lucky ones probably already have one of those elusive playoff spots wrapped up and are now fighting for the all-important first-round bye. Then there are some of you who may be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but looking to ruin some of your friend's weekends! I respect them all! They're all important and they're all fun. There's even something very, very sweet about getting to play spoiler and ruining someone else's playoff chances. So don't quit now!
All of this talk about getting into the playoffs or ruining someone's weekend brings us to Joe Burrow and what the crap are fantasy managers supposed to do with him? He's currently the QB11 on the season and QB12 in terms of points per game. He's averaging 18.36 points per game, which is actually closer to QB13, Derek Carr (17.60 PPG), than it is to QB11, Kirk Cousins (20.05). To make matters worse, he hasn't been all that good recently. He has not scored more than 19 points since Week 8.
Now he's dealing with a dislocated pinky finger on his throwing hand that happened during his Week 13 loss to the Chargers. There was a big change in his efficiency following the injury, which was to be expected. Prior to the injury, he was completing 73% of his passes and that dropped to 55% after. Fantasy managers should expect him to be in a better position if he plays this weekend, but how should fantasy managers be handling Joe Burrow this week? Let's dive in.
Is Joe Burrow Playing In Week 14 Against the 49ers?
The short answer is yes. Joe Burrow will be under center this weekend when the Bengals face off against the San Francisco 49ers. There's never really been any doubt about that. The Bengals are currently projected as the sixth seed in the AFC playoff picture with a 7-5 record. It's the same record as the fifth-seeded Los Angeles Chargers and the seventh-seeded Buffalo Bills. Needless to say, the Bengals are playing for their playoff lives and every game counts. Fantasy managers can count on Burrow being active this weekend.
From NFL Now: #Bengals QB Joe Burrow plans to play this week, mangled finger or not. pic.twitter.com/0bIgS2pOB3
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 6, 2021
While Burrow didn't practice on Wednesday, that should have been expected. The Bengals have indicated they're going to give Burrow as much time as possible to heal. Fantasy managers shouldn't expect Burrow to practice today either, but will most likely ramp up his practice status to a limited session on Friday. It's nothing to fret about. If you're in a position where you need to trust Burrow, he'll be playing. What he does for you is a different question entirely.
Joe Burrow Doesn't Practice Wednesday https://t.co/uuaNYsmYwN
— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) December 9, 2021
Should I Start Joe Burrow if He's Active?
This is really the big question this week. There's really no doubt Burrow is playing unless something drastic changes. The 49ers are not the best of matchups for quarterbacks. They've allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to opposing signal-callers this season at just 17.9. Since their bye week in Week 6, they have been really dialed in too. Not a single quarterback has thrown for more than two touchdowns and no one else has surpassed 250 yards.
- Week 13 – Russell Wilson: 30/37 for 231 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, 16.74 fantasy points.
- Week 12 – Kirk Cousins: 20/32 for 238 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, 15.52 points.
- Week 11 – Trevor Lawrence: 16/25 for 158 yards with 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 8.62 points.
- Week 10 – Matthew Stafford: 26/41 for 243 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions, 9.82 points.
- Week.9 – Colt McCoy: 22/26 for 249 yards with one touchdown and 0 interceptions, 16.26 points.
- Week 8 – Justin Fields: 19/27 for 175 yards with one touchdown and one interception, nine points (Fields also had 103 rushing yards and a score on the ground, which brought his point total to 25.3. Fantasy managers shouldn't be counting on Burrow providing that kind of rushing value).
- Week 7 – Carson Wentz: 17/26 for 150 yards with two touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 10 points (Wentz added 23 rushing yards and a score to bring his total to 18.3).
The former Tiger has 69 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the season, which is to say fantasy managers should not be counting on that upside if they're putting him into their starting lineup. Just 9% of Burrow's total points have come from rushing; it's just not part of his game. If we look at only the passing production from the quarterbacks since the 49ers' bye, they are averaging just 12.28 points to opposing quarterbacks. Even if we include the rushing stats, the 49ers have given up just 15.79 points to quarterbacks since their bye week. The 12.28 PPG average would be the second-lowest in the NFL and the 15.79 would rank as the third-fewest. Needless to say, it's not exactly a good matchup at all.
On the season, Burrow has only five games with more than 20 points, and three of those games included matchups against Jacksonville, Detroit, and the New York Jets. He's been held to under 15 points on three occasions and has been under 10 points twice. The question of whether or not he can be trusted is a difficult one because outside of Superflex leagues where Burrow is the QB2, there probably hasn't been a ton of trust with him even when he's been healthy.
Looking at PPG averages of other quarterbacks in the games they started and finished (this is an important distinction for Tua Tagovailoa and Jimmy Garoppolo), there are seven other quarterbacks below Burrow who are within two points from his PPG. Those include Derek Carr, Tua, Jimmy G, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, Carson Wentz, and Taylor Heinicke.
Another factor to determining Burrow's trust level this weekend is the health of wide receiver Tee Higgins.
Tee Higgins Misses Practice Wednesday https://t.co/XpKEJ2SMP1
— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) December 8, 2021
Higgins has been playing incredibly in the last two games, and if he is out or not 100%, there's a good chance that could impact the passing game. Not to mention, Burrow himself is unlikely to be 100%. The question of what to do with Burrow this weekend likely depends on what your other options are. There's no question he's going to play, but being less than 100% in a tough matchup without possibly his No. 2 receiver is concerning. Fantasy managers will need to continue to follow not only Burrow's practice schedule but Tee Higgins' as well.
Can I Trust The Bengals Wide Receivers In Week 14?
There's no denying the health and effectiveness of their quarterback are going to impact the receivers. As previously mentioned, Burrow's completion percentage dropped almost 20 points following the injury. Fantasy managers shouldn't expect such a drastic hindrance after Burrow having a week off, but it's possible the injury will still affect his ability to grip the ball as well as he'd like to.
The 49ers are pretty much middle of the pack in terms of points per game to opposing wide receivers this season, allowing 22.6 points per game, which is the 14th-highest. Just like the quarterback position, the 49ers have been tough on receivers since the bye week. There have been only two receivers since Week 7 to surpass 100 yards against them. Those two were Michael Pittman Jr. and Cooper Kupp, who has been pretty much superhuman all year long.
They managed to hold Justin Jefferson to 83 scoreless yards and Darnell Mooney to 64 scoreless yards. Since Week 7, they've allowed only two receivers to find the end zone against them. Michael Pittman once again and Adam Thielen, who scored twice. In their last seven games, out of his team's top-two receivers, half of them have failed to surpass 55 yards and only four have gone over 75 – Christian Kirk being the fourth (91 yards).
Ja'Marr Chase is an absolute must-start, as is Higgins as long as he's active, but Tyler Boyd is best left on fantasy benches right now with the way the 49ers' defense is playing. If Higgins is inactive, Boyd could be utilized as a low-end starter, but expectations should be tempered.
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