Wide Receivers Set To Return To Top-Tier Status

Finding players to provide your lineup with a high floor is essential to winning any fantasy championship. When it comes to fantasy football, no position has a greater ability to provide that high floor than wide receiver. Unfortunately, wide receiver also provides a high level of volatility from year to year. With so many talented receivers in the league, and even more being developed at the collegiate level, it seems that a new crop of receivers emerges each season. Only four wide receivers (Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, and Keenan Allen) finished as a top-12 fantasy wide receiver in both 2018 and 2019.

Having the ability to determine which wide receivers will maintain the same level of production from one year to the next is a big advantage when it comes to having success in your league. This can be a very daunting process, considering the variety of factors that go into a wide receivers’ ability to produce. The goal of this article is to help identify which wide receivers are most likely to return to top-12 status in 2020 so that you can build the floor you need to add high-upside talent at the end of your draft.

All ADP data is from fantasypros.com as of 5/27/2020

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Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers

Davante Adams still found a way to finish as WR23 during the 2019 season despite missing four games due to injury. In 12 contests, the 27-year-old wide receiver was targeted 127 times, catching 83 receptions for 1,189 yards (12 yards per reception) and five touchdowns.

Adams was targeted at least 10 times in eight different games and averaged a ridiculous 14 targets per contest the last three weeks of the season. Despite playing four fewer games, he nearly doubled the targets of the Packers' second-most targeted wide receiver, Aaron Jones (68).

The sixth-year receiver has the clearest path to returning to a top-10 due to the Packers' puzzling insistence on not adding receiving options to their offense in 2020. The Packers allowed Jimmy Graham and Geronimo Allison to leave via free agency, which frees up 115 targets in the Packers offense next season.

The Packers did nothing to add to their wide receiver room during the NFL draft and only picked up veteran Devin Funchess in free agency. Since 2016, Aaron Rodgers has targeted Davante Adams 534 times on 2,014 pass attempts (26%). In that same time frame, the next highest receiver on the Packers collected 401 targets or 19% of Rodgers’ pass attempts (this includes Jordy Nelson’s 2016 season where he led the Packers with 152 targets).

While Adams won’t absorb all 115 of those targets, he should have little resistance to reaching the 130-target threshold once again. Aaron Rodgers historically hasn’t had a problem feeding a massive target share to his favorite receiving option.

If Adams can return to his double-digit touchdown form (he averaged 11.6 touchdowns per season from 2016-2018), he can challenge for the top wide receiver in fantasy again in 2020. He is currently going as WR3 (behind Michael Thomas and DeAndre Hopkins), so you’ll have to invest in the early rounds to add him to your team.

Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions

Kenny Golladay continued his ascent toward being one of the top big-play wide receivers during the 2019 season. The Northern Illinois product collected 116 targets, catching 65 of them for 1,190 yards (18.3 per reception) and 11 touchdowns, finishing as WR9 in PPR leagues. It was the second consecutive season Golladay eclipsed 115 targets and 1,000 yards.

Those numbers are even more impressive when you consider the third-year receiver played nearly half the 2019 season without starting quarterback Matthew Stafford. In the first nine weeks of the season with Stafford, Golladay saw 71 targets, 38 receptions, 697 yards, and eight touchdowns. That stretch was 58% of his receptions and yardage, 61% of his target share, and a whopping 72% of his touchdowns. Stafford was QB6 during the first nine weeks of the season, roughly eight points behind Aaron Rodgers.

Once Stafford went down with an injury, Golladay was able to step up his efficiency despite seeing a dip in his targets. The combination of Jeff Driskel and David Blough targeted him 45 times. The third-year receiver was able to collect 27 of those targets for 493 yards and just three touchdowns. Blough and Driskel combined to finish as QB18 during the final stretch of the season, a significant blow to the passing game. The 26-year-old’s ability to withstand the difference in talent between veteran Matthew Stafford and two inexperienced signal-callers reinforces his development as a top wide receiver.

In 2020, the Lions freed up 97 targets by jettisoning running back J.D. McKissic (42), tight end Logan Thomas (28), and tight end Jesse James (27) from their offense. In the draft, they added D’Andre Swift in the second round of the draft, took Wisconsin wide receiver Quintez Cephus in the seventh round, and added running back Jason Huntley and tight end Hunter Bryant as undrafted rookie free agents.

They also added Geronimo Allison on a veteran minimum contract during free agency. Swift will likely be the only significant competition for targets added to the team in 2020, and most of his work will come from what was given to Kerryon Johnson and Ty Johnson in 2019.

Stafford has already proven he can support multiple receivers with his passing, so competition from Marvin Jones Jr. and Danny Amendola also shouldn’t suppress Golladay’s 2020 value too greatly. The Vegas over/under win total for the Lions currently sits at 6.5, opening up plenty of opportunity for heavy passing games during the 2020 season. Golladay is currently being selected as WR8 and should be able to meet (or exceed) that status with a healthy Matthew Stafford back under center during the 2020 season.

Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys

Amari Cooper wasted no time picking up where he left off after being traded to Dallas during the 2018 season. The fifth-year receiver finished 2019 with 119 targets, 79 receptions 1,189 yards (15.1 yards per catch) and eight touchdowns.

Those totals produced 246.5 fantasy points, good for a finish as WR10. Cooper established himself as Dak Prescott’s favorite target in Dallas, finishing the year as the most targeted player for the Cowboys. Despite the emergence of Michael Gallup as a legitimate WR2 in the Cowboy’s offense, Cooper was still able to pace the team in every major receiving category. The Alabama product was also Prescott’s favorite wide receiver weapon in the red zone, catching six of his nine targets for 73 yards and five touchdowns.

Unlike the other players on this list, Cooper faces the most obvious hurdles to repeating his production for the 2020 season. For one, the Cowboys finally decided to move on from head coach Jason Garrett, replacing him with Mike McCarthy. Despite the change in coaching, the McCarthy did choose to retain up-and-coming offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to lead the offense.

The greater threat to Cooper’s ability to repeat his production comes in the form of first-round pick CeeDee Lamb. The Oklahoma product was considered by many analysts to be the top receiver in the NFL draft and the Cowboys couldn’t pass on his tantalizing ability once he fell to the 17th pick in the first round. Despite all of this, Cooper still has plenty of things going in his favor for the 2020 season.

During his tenure as the Packers’ head coach, Mike McCarthy led offenses finished top-10 in passing attempts six times in 13 seasons, including two of the last three. The Packers passing game was also top-10 in passing yardage 11 times and finished top-10 in passing touchdowns on eight occasions. McCarthy’s passing philosophy fits in well with what teams do in the NFL today. The addition of CeeDee Lamb seems like an issue on the surface, but when you dig deeper, it shouldn’t affect Cooper too much in 2020.

The Cowboys chose to let Randall Cobb, Jason Witten, and Tavon Austin walk during the 2020 offseason. Those three players accounted for 190 targets or 31% of the Cowboy’s passing attempts. Yes, a majority of those targets will likely go to CeeDee Lamb, but odds are all of the returning pieces of the Cowboys passing game will benefit from these vacated targets. There is a real chance that the 25-year-old Cooper sees a slight uptick in his receiving work despite the addition of a top-20 draft pick.

The addition of Lamb and the exit of Cobb and Austin also free up the opportunity for Cooper to see more work in the slot, which will only give him more mismatches in the passing game. Cooper provides the perfect floor and upside combination for the 2020 season and is currently being drafted as WR9 in PPR leagues.

Allen Robinson II, Chicago Bears

Allen Robinson remains one of the biggest values at the wide receiver position heading into the 2020 fantasy season. Robinson finished as WR8 in PPR leagues a full year removed from his ACL surgery, compiling 98 receptions on 154 targets. Robinson was able to convert those 98 receptions into 1,147 yards (11.7 yards per catch) and seven touchdowns.

The 26-year-olds receivers’ re-emergence into a top-10 receiving option is even more impressive given the obvious regression from third-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. Robinson’s 11.7 yards per reception despite Trubisky’s 5.9 yards per passing attempt truly shows how fantastic of a receiver Robinson was during 2019.

The Bears spent their 2020 offseason adding complementary pieces to their receiving game. Free-agent wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr. and tight end Jimmy Graham provide depth but are unlikely to command massive target shares. The Bears also added tight end Cole Kmet in the second round of the NFL draft along with speedy receiver Darnell Mooney in the fourth round.

Again, these rookies will likely be more complimentary options instead of featured components, providing little competition to Allen Robinson’s target share. Their biggest acquisition by far was veteran quarterback Nick Foles. Foles should provide stability to the Bears quarterback position and, provided he wins the starting job, will supplant… Blake Bortles?... as the best quarterback Robinson has ever played with. A simple upgrade at quarterback could further unlock Robinson’s ability to thrive on intermediate and deep throws and elevate his yardage totals and effectiveness in the red zone.

On the surface, the Bears offense only vacated 80 targets during the 2020 offseason thanks to the departures of Taylor Gabriel (48), Trey Burton (24), and Mike Davis (8). However, a deeper look at the 2019 Chicago offense shows the potential for 45 more targets from tight ends who likely won’t have a major role this upcoming season.

Robinson likely won’t see any of those targets thrown to him given the acquisitions on offense and returning players like Anthony Miller and Tarik Cohen, but it provides him with a significant buffer that should help him retain an extremely high target floor in 2020.

Allen Robinson is currently going off the board as WR13 in PPR leagues, which is just too cheap given his potential upgrade at quarterback and the lack of threat to his 2019 target share in free agency. If everything breaks the right way, Robinson has all the ability to finish as a top-5 wide receiver in 2020.

Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams 

If you’ve been paying attention the past couple of seasons, the inclusion of Los Angeles Rams’ wide receiver Robert Woods on this list shouldn’t be surprising. Despite playing in 15 games, Woods finished the 2019 season as WR14, collecting 90 receptions on 139 targets for 1,134 yards (12.6 yards per catch), and two touchdowns.

Woods also carried the ball 17 times for 115 yards and a touchdown, finishing with 232.9 points in PPR leagues. It marked the second consecutive season Woods was targeted at least 130 times, compiled at least 85 catches, 1,100 yards, and had double-digit carries. The former USC Trojan led the Rams in targets for the second consecutive season.

During the offseason, the Rams cut ties with Brandin Cooks and Todd Gurley, freeing up 121 targets from the team. These players were replaced through the draft as the Rams invested second-round picks in Van Jefferson and Cam Akers. The Rams also added tight end Brycen Hopkins in the fourth round, though he will struggle to see playing time ahead of veterans Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett.

The vacated targets will likely secure Woods’ portion of the offense next season, despite the competition from other players in the offense. The 28-year-old receiver will once again face competition for targets from fellow veteran receiver Cooper Kupp, but there is plenty of reason for optimism.

The Rams heavily relied on three wide receiver formations at the start of the 2019 season, running that personnel nearly 73% of the time the first 12 weeks of the season. However, a combination of injuries and win-now urgency eventually shifted the team to a heavier reliance on two tight end formations from weeks 13-17.  Even with Gerald Everett missing time due to injury, the Rams ran two tight end sets 34% of the time, a 20% increase from the earlier part of the season. So why does that matter for Woods and Kupp?

During the first 11 weeks of the season, Cooper Kupp logged 88% of the snaps on the Rams offense while he played his role as the slot wide receiver. Kupp averaged 9.5 targets a game during that stretch. When the Rams offense shifted to more two tight end sets, Kupp saw his snap share plummet to 62.8% of plays, and his targets per game drop to 6. Conversely, Woods averaged 92% of the snaps and 8 targets the first 12 weeks. Woods saw a slight uptick in snaps from weeks 13-17 (95.8%), but his targets jumped to 11.8 per game.

Ultimately, there is a good chance the Rams find a balance between two tight end and three wide receiver formations in 2020. Regardless, the one consistent you can count on is Robert Woods being on the field no matter the personnel around him. The seven-year veteran receiver is currently being drafted as WR20 in PPR leagues, which is criminally low for someone who has consistently shown top-15 upside in pass-heavy offenses.

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