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John's wide receiver start 'em, sit 'em picks for fantasy football playoffs - Week 16 (2024). Expert WR lineups advice for fantasy football start/sit decisions.
We're gonna try to be a bit bolder in this one. Who needs to be told to start Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua? Only the wildest of fantasy managers would consider benching him. The same goes for someone like Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase.
As a fantasy manager, it's cool to read articles that tell you that your studs are studs, but then again, you already knew that. Did you know you should start Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans? Wild thoughts.
So, let's break down some less obvious start-sit recommendations for Week 16. You want to be able to choose between players you're uncertain about, after all.
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Week 16 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
Darnell Mooney - WR, Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants
Mooney got zero catches in Week 15. That's also part of the reason quarterback Kirk Cousins got benched -- because he had been playing terribly. Rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. taking the field for the first time will make a lot of fantasy managers nervous. But the narrative that you can't evaluate rookies at all until you've seen them play is just absurd.
A reminder of what Michael Penix Jr is capable of pic.twitter.com/JAehE6Xchh
— Rise Up Penix (@RiseUpReader) December 18, 2024
College production doesn't always translate to the NFL. But one thing that's routinely overlooked that does translate is being a talent elevator. Let's take a quick look at his top-3 wide receivers back at Washington: Chicago Bears WR Rome Odunze, Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Jalen McMillan, and New England Patriots WR Ja'Lynn Polk.
YPRR for Rookie WRs from Washington:
Rome Odunze - 1.16
Jalen McMillan - 0.64
Ja'Lynn Polk - 0.50Michael Penix made them huh?
— Fusue (@DevyEusuf) October 15, 2024
They have been MASSIVE disappointments. Sure, Odunze has shown flashes. A lot of them have been in garbage time, though. McMillan has played better in recent weeks but scored some TDs on busted coverages. And Polk is just absolutely terrible. Penix convinced NFL scouts that all three were future star WRs.
Why? Because MPJr was elite. Honestly, he's the best DFS play out there in Week 16 against a terrible New York Giants secondary. ATL is fighting for its playoff lives and the Giants are tanking. Do you think Atlanta would have benched Cousins if it didn't have full confidence in the rookie?
Drake London - WR, Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants
See the above section. London is the team's WR1 on the depth chart, but at times, Mooney has looked like the better player. Doesn't matter. We anticipate the freshman QB to play at a high level from Day 1. This means London will benefit as well. Also, he's pretty good!
Tarheeb Still gave up a big 1st down to Drake London that moved the Falcons inside the Chargers 35-yd line with 1:06 left. A few plays later, he knocked the ball loose from London on a pass that would’ve put the Falcons inside the RZ.
Clutch. No confidence lost. Kid is stellar. pic.twitter.com/EjbpqqQgc5
— Powder Blue Blood (@pwdrblueblood) December 2, 2024
Start him. Don't be afraid.
Jauan Jennings - WR, San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins
You shouldn't bench a player after just one bad week. And he still had nine targets in Week 15, which is a great volume. It was a rainy game, though, and quarterback Brock Purdy struggled against the Los Angeles Rams' solid pass rush. They have an easier matchup against the Dolphins this week.
Jauan Jennings has been elite from an efficiency standpoint this year, with a 2.66 YPRR on the season. Since Aiyuk went down (wk 7), Jennings has been earning elite volume with a 29% TPRR and 35.5% 1st read target share.
This weak, Jennings gets a nice matchup against the…
— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) December 19, 2024
Dataroma is good, man. But Jennings has been fantastic this season, and he's the clear No. 1 receiver. While Miami is good against WRs in fantasy football on paper, it has struggled against defending wideouts who play on the outside in the past seven weeks. And its defensive coverages closely match Jennings' strengths.
The 27-year-old is having a breakout season that's been marred by injuries to both he and Purdy, but he should get back on track with a big game this week. Please don't rain please don't rain please don't rain. Whew, it shouldn't rain. Fire up your JJs (both of them, obviously).
A.J. Brown - WR, Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
There isn't much to say here, other than if you forgot that Brown was elite, you should remember now that he's elite. The Eagles would be extremely wise to take some load off running back Saquon Barkley's shoulders. Because they have elite WRs they can throw the ball to. Not sure if they forgot about that. Yes, they did actually.
Eagles pass pro is nuts. Look at how much time Hurts has against 6-man pressure. Cam Jurgens (C) buried a man. Barkley didn't allow any penetration vs ILB pic.twitter.com/RylS2LxKYU
— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) December 9, 2024
1. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is not a good passer. 2. Hurts has all the time in the world to throw it. 3. Brown gets wide open a lot. 4. Hurts needs to just throw it to Brown more because if Barkley gets hurt after his 500th touch in Week 16 or 17, Philly is in trouble in the real NFL playoffs. The Eagles need to be smarter with their usage of their star back.
If they decide to, AJB will have another great day. He should be getting 10+ targets per game no matter what, anyway. His usage has been utterly baffling.
Obvious Starts: Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, CeeDee Lamb, Nico Collins, Amon-Ra St. Brown
Week 16 Concerns - Fantasy Football Busts
Jaxon Smith-Njigba* - WR, Seattle Seahawks vs. Minnesota Vikings
This one is bold, but it's important to look into the details of each matchup as much as possible. If you don't have anyone near his level to start, you want to keep him in your lineup. That's why the asterisk is there. But if you're struggling to choose between him and another guy, maybe you'd better go with the other.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Sees the Vikings who have been very tough vs. the slot, allowing 6th lowest YPA (6.67) and 2nd lowest ANY/A (5.13) since week 8.
- The Vikings run the 6th most zone in the NFL (75%). Since JSN's breakout in wk8, he has been less efficient vs. zone. He sees… https://t.co/hySXVcz2MR— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) December 19, 2024
The problem is the matchup. Dataroma on X brings us another banger, showing us that the Vikings are tough against slot receivers. And they run a lot of zone coverage, which JSN isn't as good against. He's been good, sure, but if you're splitting hairs between him and another good player, you might be better off leaving Smith-Njigba on the bench.
Amari Cooper - WR, Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
Cooper had zero fantasy points last week. He wasn't even targeted. He only played 46% of offensive snaps. He ran fewer routes than WRs Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Mack Hollins. You can't trust him to produce in his new offense. Even in shootouts, he's hardly used sometimes.
Amari Cooper Week 14: 14 targets, 254 air yards
Amari Cooper in the first round of the fantasy playoffs: 0 targets
— Joe Metz (@JoeMetz34) December 15, 2024
It didn't feel good to have Coop in your starting lineups last week. If you were lucky enough to make it this far, find someone else to put in your starting lineups. The Bills could go very run-heavy against an awful New England Patriots team that doesn't have much of an offensive line. The Pats should struggle to score against the Bills defense.
Just Don't Do It: Sterling Shepard, All Patriots Receivers, Allen Lazard, Wan'Dale Robinson, Mike Williams
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