X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Risers - Positive Target Volume Regression Candidates

Deebo Samuel - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Rob Lorge identifies which receivers will have more targets in 2023 than they did in 2022. Recognizing these players can help fantasy managers target positive values in their drafts. Who are some such receivers this year?

Fantasy managers, as they start drafting, should always be looking for players who, without anything changing, should experience a little positive regression. Guys who, for lack of a better term, were just a tad bit unlucky the previous season. Oftentimes, the market overcompensates on these scenarios, devaluing these players far more than they should. Luckily, we’ve helped you identify some positive and negative touchdown and yardage regression candidates in a previous series.

Here you can find the rest of our positive and negative regression candidate series.

For this installment, we’re going to be focusing on receivers who will have more targets than they had last season. Sometimes the market is able to identify these players and price them appropriately. Other times, not so much. We’ll be casting a spotlight on a few obvious candidates because their upside is so high, but also a few other underpriced players who offer great value. Please be sure to use promo code "BOOM" for 10% off of any premium purchase.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos

Jerry Jeudy is one of my favorite receivers this offseason and I've tried to hammer that home in several earlier articles including, Early Wide Receiver Breakouts for 2023 Fantasy Football and 2023 Fantasy Football Blind Resumes – WR Edition. If you're not on board, there's still plenty of time. If you're of the mind that Jeudy has been a bust, I beg of you, reconsider.

In his rookie season, he finished with 113 targets, 52 receptions, and 856 yards. He had a very impressive 21.2% target share. His quarterback play, however, held him back. Drew Lock that year was one of the worst in the NFL. Jeudy finished the year with 1,536 air yards, which was the sixth most in the NFL. Unfortunately, he also had 965 unrealized air yards, which ranked second. All in all, however, it was a very promising rookie season and one, if he had just had average quarterback play, likely would've smashed.

His sophomore season was lost due to a high-sprained ankle that nagged him all year. He finished with just 10 games played, had a snap share of over 75% in just one contest, and four games with a 60% snap share or less. Looking at his 2022 season, fantasy managers may be reluctant to say that he broke out, but I'd argue you should reconsider.

Yes, injuries were once again a bit of a concern, and if you'd like to knock him for that, I can't really stop you, however, I'd implore you to look at the games where he played a full snap share. He appeared in 15 games but played on fewer than 36% of the snaps in three contests. If we eliminate these injury-shortened games in Weeks 2, 10, and 13, we can begin to see the breakout.

When the 2022 season was finished, Jeudy had just 100 targets and a target share of just 20.8%. However, in his 12 healthy games, he was on pace for 131 targets. In those 12 games, he averaged 7.7 targets, 5.2 receptions, and 74.7 yards per game. During this time span, he sported a 23.4% target share and averaged 16 full-PPR PPG.

And folks, he was able to accomplish that despite the abysmal quarterback play and on the league's worst offense with a head coach who was fired after one season. Once you add in the renowned offensive coach, Sean Payton, it's fair to expect Jeudy and the entire Denver offense to get a boost.

 

Christian Watson & Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers

I know the Green Bay Packers selected three pass-catchers in rounds two and three of the 2023 NFL Draft, which included second-rounders, Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave. That's all fine and dandy, but Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are going to lead this team in targets in 2023. While Watson is an easy target for this list considering how he closed his rookie season, Doubs finds himself in a Jeudy-like situation, where his output is being hidden a bit due to several injury-shortened games. Let's first focus on Watson before we shift our attention to Doubs.

Time Snaps Per Game TPG TS % Routes Run TPRR
Weeks 1–9 29.6% 2.3 7.0% 25.8% 24.0%
Weeks 10–18 77.2% 6.6 22.4% 69.7% 29.0%

The table above are Watson's splits from the first half of the 2022 season and the second half of the season. They could not be any different. He finished the 2022 season with 66 targets. However, if he continues to operate in 2023 with a 6.6 target per game average, he'd finish with 112 targets. For our 2023 expectations, that should be considered the floor.

There are three numbers that stand out and that fantasy managers need to be cognizant of. The first two are his snaps per game and his routes run per game. Despite his extraordinary play in the second half of the season, the Packers coaching staff still hadn't totally unleashed him. He was running a route on just under 70% of the Packers' passing plays. He was on the field for just 77.2% of their plays. Fantasy managers should expect both those numbers to be around 90% in 2023 and those added opportunities are going to lead to a lot more targets. How do we know this? Because of his ridiculously high 29% target per route run rate. It shouldn't be out of the question that Watson finishes with 130 targets.

Now, let's talk about Romeo Doubs. He finished with 67 targets after playing in 13 games as a rookie. This equals 5.15 targets per game. However, he played fewer than 50% of the snaps in five games. Almost all of those games came late in the season after he suffered a high-ankle sprain and was quite limited even after returning.

If we look at just the games where Doubs wasn't limited by injury, he averaged 6.4 targets per game and sported an 18.0% target share. During that time, he ran a route on 73.8% of the routes and had a 22.0% target per route run. For a rookie, his ability to earn targets was impressive and with his experience in the Packers' system, there's no reason to think he won't operate as the team's No. 2 receiver for the 2023 season.

The Packers threw the ball 563 times last year. If Doubs were to have an 18% target share in 2023 on that team passing volume, he'd finish with 101 targets. That target volume doesn't put him in the WR2 range and truthfully, he'll struggle to get into the WR3 range, but it's hard not to see that Doubs is positioned well to have more targets than 2022.

 

Treylon Burks, Tennesee Titans

Treylon Burks. is another easy addition to this list. For starters, he played in just 11 games last year as a rookie and played on just 59.4% of the snaps in those contests. He had 54 targets as a rookie and the sheer increase in playing time will result in a large spike in targets, but what would that look like?

Last year, Burks had a target per route run average of 24.0%. Unfortunately, he ran a route just 63.2% of the time. Considering the team cut veteran Robert Woods and didn't add a receiver in free agency and only first added to this position in the seventh round of the 2023 NFL Draft, Burks’ role is going to increase substantially.

Right now, the No. 2 receiver is Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and the No. 3 receiver is Kyle Phillips. Westbrook-Ikhine was not drafted and Phillips was a third-round pick. By draft capital alone, Burks should be regarded as the clear No. 1 receiver for the 2023 season.

Assuming his snap share and route run percentage jump to 90% like we should expect considering the lack of talent in the Titans receiver room, Burks is going to finish with a lot more target opportunity. The Titans had 456 pass attempts last season and if Burks runs a route 90%, he would run 410 routes. If he maintains his 24% target per route run average, he'd finish with 98 targets. If he increases that rate to 26%, he'd have 107 targets, which is right where AJ Brown landed the last two years he was in Tennessee.

There's a lot to like about Treylon Burks as indicated in the tweet thread above and while he's guaranteed to have more targets than last year with a much larger target share, it's still up in the air if Tennessee will have enough team passing volume that will allow Burks to be an impact fantasy player this upcoming fantasy football season.

 

Skyy Moore & Kadarius Toney, Kansas City Chiefs

I know how everyone likely feels about these two players, especially Kadarius Toney, but chances are, one of these two players is going to be busy this upcoming season. Rookie Rashee Rice will also be in the running to claim the prize of becoming Patrick Mahomes' No. 2 target behind Kelce and he was listed as one of the biggest draft day winners that you can read about here.

Both players had very minimal opportunities last year, but that doesn't mean they weren't efficient or productive with the chances they did have. Considering the depth chart in Kansas City and what the team was playing for, a Super Bowl Championship, it's not overly surprising neither player was able to command a large role in year one with the team. Kansas City had signed veteran receivers, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and JuJu Smith-Schuster to operate as the team's starting receivers. They also had holdover, now New York Jet, Mecole Hardman on the roster, as well. That always put Moore in a tough position to produce in year one. As for Toney, he was acquired before the trade deadline and was asked to learn a new playbook with limited practice time. Both players will get more opportunities in 2023.

If we, however, look at what Moore and Toney did on the field with their limited chances, there's some reason for optimism. Moore finished his rookie season with a 1.63-yard per route run average and a 22.0% target per route run. Toney, on the other hand, was even more productive, having produced a 2.76-yard per route run average and a 27.0% target per route run. We've certainly been down this route before with Toney, so I understand being more skeptical about him. Moore, however, was just a rookie last year and should surely get the benefit of the doubt given his second-round status and the team's stable of veteran receivers.

The team still employs MVS, but Smith-Schuster and Hardman have since moved on to new teams. MVS has never had a season with a 15% target share, 85 targets, 45 receptions, or 700 yards. Having never hit any of those four criteria in any one of his five seasons, fantasy managers can rest assured MVS will not be the No. 2 receiver this season. Rather, it'll be Moore, Toney, or their second-round rookie.

Moore played on just 31.5% of the team's snaps and Toney was at just 23.2% in the seven games he was with the club. It shouldn't be surprising if both players flirt with a 65% snap share, which is going to significantly increase the number of routes they run. They both boasted a very solid target per route run, which gives fantasy managers hope that an increased route share will go hand and hand with an increase in target volume.

 

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers

After a career season in 2021, the regression train found Deebo Samuel and hit him, hard. While it would be unwise to expect a repeat of that incredible 2021 season, fantasy managers should be expecting the regression pendulum to swing back a bit the other way.

He missed four games last year, but also had one game where he played one contest where he played on just 40% of the snaps. His playing time was lower last year in general across the board. Even in the games he was active, he played just 77% of the snaps. However, the numbers from last year indicate Samuel largely operated as the team's No. 1 receiver. Below is a table using only the games where all three players – Aiyuk, Kittle, and Samuel all played in at least 50% of the team's snaps – and as you can see, they certainly favor Deebo.

Player Snaps Per Game TPG TS % Routes Run TPRR
D, Samuel 76.6% 7.4 23.3% 79.2% 27%
B, Aiyuk 89.8% 6.7 21.3% 86.3% 23%
G, Kittle 89.9% 5.5 17.3% 78.1% 20%

Now, let's look at the games where all three players played in at least 50% of the snaps, but where Brocky Purdy, the likely 2023 starter was behind center. This does include two playoff games, their first playoff game vs Seattle and the second game vs Dallas. The following sample does only include four games, which is a rather small sample, which isn't ideal, but the results are pretty telling.

Player Snaps Per Game TPG TS % Routes Run TPRR
D, Samuel 82.0% 7.2 25.4% 84.7% 25%
B, Aiyuk 89.9% 5.8 20.2% 86.9% 19%
G, Kittle 88.1% 4.2 14.9% 74.5% 17%

Regardless of who was under center, Samuel was the team's No. 1 receiver. Purdy especially favored Samuel and that's evident from the table above. His target share is 5.2 percentage points higher than Aiyuk and 10.5 percentage points higher than Kittle. Samuel looks like he's in a great position for a big bounceback season and that'll come as a result of an increase in targets for the 2023 fantasy football season.

As a reminder, if you're looking to purchase any of our premium packages for the upcoming fantasy football season, be sure to use promo code "BOOM" to receive a 10% off of your purchase.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Moises Ballesteros

Riding An 11-Game Hit Streak
Victor Mesa Jr.

Starting Rehab Assignment On Saturday
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF