Welcome to Week 4 WR Matchups to Target. We’ve correctly predicted three home-run picks (3x multiplier on DraftKings salary) so far this season. We will look to add to that total this week.
Each week we will use matchup data from PFF to determine wide receivers to target based on who they will be primarily lining up against that week. These are players more likely to return a 3x multiplier on their DraftKings salary, a benchmark for consistently winning DFS cash games.
Below are five of the top WR vs. CB matchups for this week’s DFS main slate. Use these to set season-long lineups, make player prop picks, and gain an edge in DFS.
Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs
$7,300 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel; vs. Ja'Sir Taylor
Rashee Rice has quickly turned into a bonafide WR1 for the Chiefs. Despite an uncharacteristically slow start from QB Patrick Mahomes, the second-year pass catcher enters Week 4 in second among receivers in PPR scoring while leading the league in receptions.
Rice and the Chiefs are up against a beatable Chargers secondary, allowing the 6th-most adjusted yards per target and the most yards after catch in the league since last season. They are the 13th-best matchup for opposing receivers according to PFF’s Strength of Schedule metric.
Rice has lined up primarily in the slot this year, where he will meet CB Ja'Sir Taylor in a matchup with an excellent 86.4 matchup advantage per PFF. The Chiefs receiver is the 7th-highest priced pass catcher on the DK main slate despite WR1 upside. Start Rice with confidence.
Rashee Rice gained 75 of his 110 yards after the catch across 12 receptions on 14 targets. Rice also forced 5 missed tackles.
Rice currently leads all players in yards after catch this season (200), and leads all wide receivers in missed tackles forced (9).
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— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 23, 2024
Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns
$6,300 on DraftKings, $6,400 on FanDuel; vs. Jack Jones
The 1-2 Browns have had a slow start to the year on offense, with QB Deshaun Watson continuing where he left off after an uninspiring 2023 campaign. This pick is more about the matchup and opportunity than anything else.
The Browns travel to Las Vegas this week in PFF’s fourth-best matchup for receivers. Antonio Pierce’s team has given up the 5th-highest adjusted completion percentage to opposing receivers and ranks 29th in limiting yards after the catch.
Cooper lines up on the outside 81% of the time and will see about an equal amount of time against CBs Jack Jones and Jakorian Bennett. PFF projects a particularly lucrative mismatch when Cooper lines up against Bennett, giving Cooper a 91.8 matchup advantage.
The Raiders have deployed man coverage at a top-eight rate thus far. Cooper has fared well against man this year, capturing a 27.1% target share against that coverage. Target Cooper as a contrarian pick in DFS this week.
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Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers
$6,000 on DraftKings, $6,300 on FanDuel; vs. Byron Murphy
Don’t look now, but the Packers might have their number-one receiver in Jayden Reed. The second-year receiver has been leading his team in yardage dating back to last year and currently ranks eighth in touch rate (13.0%) among receivers with at least 10 touches in 2024. Reed leads all starting slot receivers in both yards after the catch per reception (11.4) and yards per route run (3.69).
The Packers have a matchup with the Vikings next, who have surprised many with a 3-0 start and an improved defense eager to blitz the quarterback. Reed comes alive against the blitz - he had targets on three of Love’s five pressured passing attempts in Week 1, catching two for 96 yards and a touchdown.
Reed will line up primarily against CB Byron Murphy Jr., one of the NFL’s worst slot corners in coverage (41.6 PFF coverage grade). He has the best matchup on the field in this game and comes at a great price as the 22nd-most expensive WR on the DraftKings main slate. Reed is a great GPP pick for DFS this week.
Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers
$5,600 on DraftKings, $6,200 on FanDuel; vs. Cam Taylor-Britt
Johnson came alive with Andy Dalton under center last week, catching 8 of his 14 targets (7 of which being downfield targets) for 122 yards and a touchdown. He was Dalton’s favorite receiver by far, garnering a 37.8% target share and 63.2% air yards share.
Johnson and the Panthers have a matchup with the Bengals this week, who just gave up 38 points to the Commanders on Monday night. This game is also expected to be high-scoring with an over/under of 47.5.
With the Panthers missing WR Adam Thielen for the foreseeable future, Johnson should continue to have a safe floor in cash games as Carolina’s top target.
One Andy Dalton start. One Diontae Johnson week leading all WRs in opportunity. pic.twitter.com/Ch7bpDqTwe
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 24, 2024
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders
$5,800 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel; vs. Sean Murphy-Bunting
As one of the NFL’s most underrated receivers for years now, McLaurin is finally turning heads with QB Jayden Daniels under center. Sportsbooks have yet to price him accordingly in DFS, however, as the WR24 in DraftKings price in Week 4.
McLaurin and the Commanders' pass catchers have the second-best matchup in the league this week against the Cardinals, who rank among the bottom three in the NFL in PFF team coverage grade, defensive success rate, and first-down/touchdown rate allowed.
The veteran leads the league in air yards share with 56.4%. McLaurin’s matchup on the outside against CB Sean Murphy-Bunting should allow for more explosive plays, giving the receiver a high ceiling in Week 4.
Thanks for reading, and good luck with your DFS contests!
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