Wide Receiver Matchups to Target in Week 16 - Malik Nabers, Keenan Allen, Josh Downs, Jalen Coker

Welcome back to WR Matchups to Target. We landed another two home run picks in Week 15, including a 5.2x DK multiplier selection in Rashod Bateman. This brings us to 22 money picks (3x DK multiplier) through 14 weeks.

Each week, we will use matchup data from PFF to determine which wide receivers to target based on who they will be primarily lining up against that week. These players are more likely to return a 3x multiplier on their DraftKings salary, a benchmark for consistently winning DFS cash games. 

Below are five top WR vs. CB matchups for this week’s DFS main slate. Use these to set season-long lineups, make player-prop picks, and gain an edge in DFS. Let's get to it.

Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars

$6.3K on DraftKings, $7.3K on FanDuel; vs. Decamerion Richardson

Brian Thomas Jr. has made a strong late-season push to finish the year as the top rookie receiver. A string of three straight top-20 finishes has Thomas sitting WR7 in the NFL through 15 weeks, above fellow rookies Malik Nabers (WR10), Ladd McConkey (WR13), and Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR31). 

BTJ has proven he can produce no matter who is under center, totaling three touchdowns and six red-zone targets over his last three games with QB Mac Jones. He has four top-10 finishes this year, each resulting in 21.9 or more fantasy points.

The Jags face off against the Raiders on Sunday, who give up the third-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. PFF gives Thomas the fourth-best individual matchup of any receiver this week, with a 90.5 matchup advantage grade over the Raiders secondary.

The rookie is the 14th-highest-priced receiver on the Sunday slate despite week-winning upside. He is a top start in fantasy and cash game lineups.

Brian Thomas Jr among rookie WRs this season:

🐆 64 receptions (2nd)
🐆 956 receiving yards (1st)
🐆 8 receiving TDs (1st)
🐆 444 YAC (1st)
🐆 2.26 yards per route run (2nd) pic.twitter.com/nFwV8lsE77

— PFF JAX Jaguars (@PFF_Jaguars) December 18, 2024

Malik Nabers, New York Giants

$6.1K on DraftKings, $8.2K on FanDuel; vs. A.J. Terrell

Despite battling injury and inconsistent quarterback play in his rookie year, Nabers has achieved WR9 in fantasy points per game and has a great opportunity to return value this week in a solid matchup against the Falcons.

Atlanta’s secondary has given up 38 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers (second in the NFL) while ranking 26th in passing DVOA. Nabers has an impressive 31% targets per route run rate, good for second in the NFL among 96 qualifying receivers. His 140 targets also rank second among receivers while his 1,377 air yards rank third. 

Nabers leads his position in expected fantasy points per game, according to PlayerProfiler (24.6). Realizing even 75% of that total would put him in the money for DFS this week at his $6.1K DK price. He is an excellent pick in both GPP and cash.

Keenan Allen, Chicago Bears

$5.3K on DraftKings, $6.2K on FanDuel; vs. Amik Robertson

With almost everything else falling apart for the Bears, newcomer Keenan Allen has been a bright spot of late, seeing more of the consistency fantasy managers have come to expect from him in recent years. The 32-year-old has three 20+ fantasy point performances in his last four games after only doing so once in his previous 11 contests.

Allen has averaged 10.25 targets in his four games under interim HC Thomas Brown, including 1.5 red-zone looks per game. Last week’s 142 air yards were the most Allen has had in a game all season.

Allen has an excellent matchup this week against the Lions. Detroit deploys the highest rate of man coverage in the NFL, against which Allen has a 26% target rate this year, almost double any other Bears receiver. He has also proved to be Caleb Williams’ No. 1 target against the blitz, which Detroit has deployed at a top-5 rate.

Allen offers a $400 discount to fellow receiver DJ Moore in DraftKings, who is also a solid play this week based on the matchup.

The reports of Keenan Allen being cooked were greatly exaggerated.

With a 7️⃣3️⃣ yard 2️⃣ TD effort vs the Lions earlier this year and their current struggles with fielding healthy DBs, is Keenan a top 15 option this week⁉️pic.twitter.com/lKcVdboaY6

— PlayerProfiler NFL (@Profiler_NFL) December 20, 2024

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— Scott (@scottd923) September 25, 2023

Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts

$4.9K on DraftKings, $6K on FanDuel; vs. Roger McCreary

As the WR30 in fantasy points per game, it has been tough to trust Josh Downs every week for fantasy. He is coming off two straight quiet games and has only topped 100 receiving yards once this year. 

That said, his matchup in the slot against the Titans gives him a great shot at returning to glory. Downs has the best individual matchup of any receiver this week, according to PFF, with a 95 matchup advantage. 

Tennessee uses a league-average mix of man and zone. The 23-year-old has a 30% target rate for the Colts and ranks among the top 25 qualifying wide receivers in fantasy points per route run against man and zone.

Downs leads the Colts in catches, ranking 26th among receivers in this category, and 18th in red-zone targets. At $4,900 on DraftKings this week, Downs only needs 14.7 points to hit supreme value. He is a good bet in tournaments.

Jalen Coker, Carolina Panthers

$4.2K on DraftKings, $5.2K on FanDuel; vs. Sean Murphy-Bunting

Panthers rookie Jalen Coker is another first-year receiver who has shown impressive flashes this year, albeit on a smaller scale for a largely ineffective Carolina offense. Coker returned from a three-game injury absence to post career-bests with 83 yards and a touchdown, good for WR12 in full-point PPR.

PFF projects a juicy matchup for Coker against the Cardinals, who offer the 10th-best matchup for receivers, according to PFF’s strength of schedule metric. The rookie has a healthy 91.2 matchup advantage grade over CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (58.5 PFF defensive grade). 

Arizona deploys zone coverage at a top-10 rate despite ranking second worst in the NFL in both defensive success rate and first down-plus-touchdown rate allowed. With Xavier Legette ruled out for Week 16, look for Coker to soak up more perimeter targets. He is a great dart throw pick in tournaments this week.

Thanks for reading, and good luck with your DFS contests!

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